Six weeks ago, I said the top eight to be locked away. Now it’s time to declare the premiership race all but over.
The weekend’s matches made the final eight call a little shaky, but they also showed how far ahead of the competition the Sydney Swans are.
While the rest of the contenders are looking vulnerable or are yet to produce their best form this season, the Swans are tracking along almost unnoticed, having won 11 games in a row, and now sit a game clear at the top of the table.
Their early season form slump, when they attracted justified criticism, is now well behind them. The scary part for opposition fans is that we haven’t actually seen a whole lot of their best football, which was a three-week run in late May and early June.
The win of the season was Sydney demolishing Geelong by 110 points in Round 11. Rarely has a more emphatic statement been made at the halfway mark of a home-and-away season.
The next week, they fought out a highly skilled, tough and fast contest against Gold Coast, before prevailing by 35 points in a margin that belied the closeness of the game in general play. The Suns had every right to believe they’d be playing finals off the back of such a quality affair.
Round 13 was probably the match of the season, when a fit and flying Port Power travelled to the SCG and only went down by four points thanks to a virtuoso Lance Franklin display.
In the three matches since, the Swans have done what they’ve needed to. Flat against Richmond after such a stunning three week period, they shook off their torpor just in time to notch the win.
They handled Greater Western Sydney with ease, and were never seriously challenged in the Perth wet against West Coast on Sunday.
Josh Kennedy leads the midfield, and some have made the case that he’s having a Brownlow-quality year. Not many get first hands on the ball at a stoppage more than him, and if you haven’t noticed him in a match, chances are he’s only had 25 touches and 5 clearances rather than his usual 30 and 10.
Kieren Jack is a wonderfully effective footballer with explosive capabilities, Jarrad McVeigh is the seasoned professional whose mistakes occur as often as tax time, while Dan Hannebery, arguably the best of all of them, hasn’t been missed in an injury-enforced absence.
Luke Parker has had a stellar year, and is quietly making a case for All-Australian. The best way to describe his game is to say that his best attributes are a combination of the players above. Craig Bird will never have a big profile, but has been having a big impact in 2014.
The best midfielders, and midfield groups, do their best work forward of centre, and this Sydney collection is no exception. Despite their reputation for hard two-way running, the six players mentioned have combined for 315 inside fifties this year, but only 107 rebounds from defensive fifty.
This is not to say these guys don’t get back to help out their defenders, but they’re not as required to bear as much load when you’ve got the class of Nick Malceski and the impregnability and decision-making of Dane Rampe bringing the ball out.
You know what you’re going to get with Ted Richards, while Heath Grundy provides support (and the odd heart attack to supporters). Nick Smith locks down on the smalls, Rhyce Shaw has had a good year, and Jeremy Laidler is the perfect type of journeyman role-player who can find a home in the Sydney backline.
The ruck division has looked weak, but you can get away with it if the rest of your team is strong. Mike Pyke has either been injured or poor, and Tom Derickx has had more positive news stories than touches of the football.
Buddy Franklin has finally reclaimed his rightful title as the best and most feared forward in the competition, moving freely, roaming dangerously and winning matches for his team.
Kurt Tippett has only played five matches, but looked in ominous touch for the most part. He’d want a good month or two of football in him before finals start, and will play a crucial role once there.
Sam Reid hasn’t done a lot, and won’t go close to fulfilling his potential as a forward while Franklin and Tippett are around, but he’s a decent foil when required, and will be a handy second ruck or loose man in defence. He’s basically a superior version of Lewis Roberts-Thomson.
Adam Goodes is more icing than cake these days, and has slowly worked his way into some good touch. His experience, skill and smarts around goal will keep opposition defences occupied, even if he’s not going to get the ball as often as he used to.
Lewis Jetta has been okay, even if he only needs to be in the same postcode as the goals to have a ping, Harry Cunningham continues to develop, and Ben McGlynn is still dangerous around goal but is now a hard-nosed run-with midfielder.
The Swans line-up is one that presently doesn’t have room for a recent Norm Smith Medalist in Ryan O’Keefe, or one of the brightest young talents in the game in Tom Mitchell, which speaks to their admirable depth, and a coaching staff that selects on merit, not previous credits or future potential.
Injuries will be a bridge too far for Hawthorn, Port are feeling the pinch of being up for so long, and Geelong and Collingwood are spluttering and were probably never a real premiership threat anyway.
Fremantle pose the only real danger to Sydney, and Ross Lyon has them on a long, slow burn to September, where they will hopefully show us their best.
Until we see what the Dockers are truly capable of, this premiership is Sydney’s to lose. A game clear on top, with wins already this season over all of their main rivals, and the most balanced and talented line-up in the league.
Perhaps they should just give them the flag now and be done with it.
Peter Baudinette
Roar Guru
The thing about Freo and West Coast supporters who live in WA, and go to Patersons is this. They sit in a crowd full of.....themselves. I went to the West Coast v Swans two weeks ago and then to the Freo v Giants game last week. I saw first hand why they are like they are. You see the stadium holds 43,500. They offer about 500 tickets to the opposition team. Then there are a few tickets available for the public. Yes, WA is a big state and there are a lot of opposition supporters here but not enough to make up more than 1000 opposition fans at a game. So getting back to what I was saying, they all sit there next to each other and for the most part they just watch the game, cheer when a goal is kicked, get angry when something goes wrong, if their team is down they get a bit cranky at each other and say stupid things, and if their team is up they are happy and still say stupid things. But they are very sheltered to the type of stuff that goes on at a big game. Big game outside of Subiaco that is. For example, when their team is down, there isn't a massive bunch of opposition supporters absolutely giving it to them. Likewise, they are not afforded the opportunity to do the same to the opposition. It is hilarious. Back in 2006 I went to the West v Swans game at Subiaco as it was then known. This is right in the middle of the awesome rivalry when games were decided by less than 12 points. The Swans lost and I thought I would test my theory so on the train home I tried revving them up. Nothing. Not one person would bite. I believe the lack of hostility in the crowd translate to the lack of hostility on the field. One thing about a Port Adelaide v Adelaide Showdon is the frantic hostility. I guarantee a large part of this comes from the nature of the crowd. Come to think of it, the water over here.....it is very soft. Not like the water over east.
Peter Baudinette
Roar Guru
I realise I am 10 days late onto this but given it is one of the most dicussed I thought I had better read it. I have only glanced over the comments but wondered what your thoughts were on a player you didn't mention. Ben McGlynn. He is playing at of his skin at the moment and for very good reason. Missed out on the 2012 premiership. Came back into a side last year that was hampered with injuries and fell at the second last hurdle. You can just see the bloke is playing with intent. His injection into the midfield has been outstanding and he is just another player now on the long list of great Swans midfielders. Very handy down in close to goal although his conversion rate isn't as good as other seasons. Just goes to show how good the Swans list is if he can't rate a mention. Would be great to see them win it and see how he would celebrate.
dockersfan
Guest
Hehe, I still remember last year's build up to the finals (more than 6 months ago is always stuff of legend, I know) but Fremantle were not seriously thought to be contenders. Until September hit of course and only the 3rd side to come from outside the top 2 made it all the way to the GF. Don't be surprised if Fremantle, once again, pull out some unbelievable footy once the '22 qualifying rounds' are over and the 'real season' begins.
John Fedec
Guest
oh, one correction : sorry Geelong+Port+North 10 % :)
John Fedec
Guest
I strongly disagree with you there Cameron ! Didn't we both agree Collingwood and Gold Coast would both make it...NOW, both could miss !! One surely will at this stage too ! I've got the Pies missing the 8 if they lose this round vs Adelaide at the MCG ! Now.... TOP 8 write OFF 4-8 :) IF Hawthorn beat Sydney at the MCG, then....it's a 3 horse race again ! AND Fremantle...they played one bad half vs Hawthorn, were terrible against North in the second half, had a bad first half vs Sydney, and a bad last quarter vs Port Adelaide !! That's 7 bad quarters for the year which cost them those 4 games ! They won't lose another game until finals....MY prediction, win BOTH finals at home , and then....in the grand final, your guess is as good as mine :) Sydney 35% Fremantle 35% Hawthorn 20% Geelong+North 10 % REST 0%
kick to kick
Guest
Seem to remember a previous article where Cameron Rose admitted to being a Tigers supporter with a dislike for the Swans. Can't therefore accuse him of being a fanboy. The Swans are clear favourites with those most unsentimantal of tipsters, the bookies. Swans at $2.75 - Freo at $3.50 Hawks at $4.50. I on the other hand am a longterm Swans fan. Fellow fans I know come from all walks of life and class backgrounds. Some are coverts from other codes. Their kids tend to play for junior Aussie rules teams and whole families become passionate followers. Quite a few simply grow to love the game -it's uniquely Australian and a great spectacle, especially live at the ground ( AFL doesn't work as well on TV as League unless you know the game well). The suppport base is not Sydney wide but it is sizeable, and resilient. There's another intangible. Swans crowds are comfortable places for women and families.They do not exude class and money as Rugby Union crowds nor the blokey boozy world of league. As a Swans supporter the odd feeling is that for the first time I can recall, my team is a front runner and not the overlooked underdog from a non- AFL state. Takes getting used to and the true fan is always anxious about things unravelling.
Cat
Roar Guru
" If Freo has 20 players playing more than 10 games, it shows how many reserves they had to call upon." You've got that arse backwards. It highlights a pretty stable lineup, players don't get into double digits if they are out missing. Let me simplify it even further for you. Fremantle have had 16 out of a starting 22 who have played 13 games out of the max 15 (so far). Hawthorn have had 13 players who have played 13 of 15 games. Thats 3 more positions with stability and continuity for Freo than Hawthorn.
Dalgety Carrington
Guest
Very very rich coming from you.
Dalgety Carrington
Guest
There would also be a lot more romance in the Swans earlier success, even up to and a bit beyond the '05 and '06 success and perhaps even to the'12 premiership. I'd say a little less excitement comes with sustained success and a few less might fork out the extra to go to games without as much of the fairy tale.
Aransan
Guest
Don, I am hoping that Gumbleton proves you wrong. He has missed a fair few games this season but wouldn't have missed too many last year when he was on Essendon's list. Last year he had trouble being selected in Essendon's AFL side purely because they had too many tall players, and this is still true even with the retirement of Hille as well. Essendon at one stage experimented by playing three ruck men, Ryder, Bellchambers and Hille. That definitely made the side top heavy and meant few chances for Gumbleton. When fit and in form I believe he will offer Fremantle an extra option up forward and that is why he was recruited by them. I am sure Gumbelton carries many good wishes from Essendon supporters.
Don Freo
Guest
Pavlich, Clancy Pearce and Ibbotson too. If Freo has 20 players playing more than 10 games, it shows how many reserves they had to call upon. Hawks only had to call on 15 because their core were there. Thanks for the support. There would be no spot in Freo's side for Whitecross, Lake, Shiels, Stratton or Schoenmakers. I'd rank them with Jono Griffin, Gumbleton, Sylvia, Bradley and Silvagni, who I also could have listed because they, too, have missed. They just wouldn't get a run in the first 22.
EddyJ
Guest
Still getting a grip on what bothers people so much about this. Is it because they like to see a rival code not performing so well? Or not being told the 'truth'? Or just wanting to win an argument. And what do you mean by ‘very far from the truth, especially for the Swans’? There's so many ways to read these statistics. Crowds in AFL, as a percentage of the population, are much lower than they were 50 years ago. But, life is more complex today, with so many different pastimes available, different sports available, and different interests. So what if the crowds are 12% lower than 1997? Every club in every code in every country would be quite happy with an average crowd of 32,026. The Swans membership is currently 36,370 – their highest level ever. Surely that's some indication of how they're travelling. I don't really care if the Swans, Giants, Parramatta, Wanderers, Waratahs average crowds of 20,000 or 40,000. What matters is that they remain viable – which they all are – and whatever crowds they are getting – whether that goes up or down 10% – means they can survive in a very competitive sports and entertainment market, and there's a festival of the boot to watch every weekend.
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
Breaking My Roar silence (to focus on other things) to comment... Swans a few years ago were in an article that had proven that they were now the most followed club in Australia with over 1 million people. This was prior to winning the Premiership in 2012. While yes, not all of that would be Sydneysiders...there would be significant growth. One can also not ignore the membership difference that has been on a fairly steady climb. In short, success grows a club's fans base which Swans have plenty of. I would suggest lower (overall, clearly not for blockbusters) crowd numbers as result of expensive flights for opposing clubs and also a possibility that spectators don't travel as much when 'good team' plays 'bad team'. I.e. Swans get low crowd numbers when playing e.g. Carlton this week (if this proves incorrect, it would be a cheap deal we are trying to flog which proves it needs the numbers as not many Calrton supporters will be joining the game). Swans tv crowds are are fairly good, with Swans v Geelong on Thursday night - despite a flogging - posting an extremely high number (was 1 mil+ I believe). In regards to article, people miss the point that Cameron says 'almost' and 'perhaps'. I never thought Hawks were totally killing it and Power always seemed beatable. We did early too and we still do. Every team is. Every team on their day can be beaten. However, consistency and Finals experience with plenty of youth with finals experience suggests Swans certainly are the team to back. But, they could have a Gary Ablett like injury to Franklin, Kennedy, McVeigh or Malceski which could make things significantly more difficult. In footy, upsets happen. Touchwood though....
Cat
Roar Guru
Mitchell, Hill, Rioli, Lake, Gibson, Sewell, Whitecross, Hodge, Stratton, Schoenmakers, McEvoy, Shiels off the top of my head. Fremantle have had 20 players who have played at least 10 games this year Hawthorn have had 15 players who have played at least 10 games this year
Cat
Roar Guru
Try coming up with your own material Bosk
Brian Orange
Roar Guru
Yes Johnno, I'd agree that despite what some people are trying to say, AFL has gone backwards in Sydney in the past few years.
Brian Orange
Roar Guru
OK. Even if you compare just home games Eddy this years average home crowd of 32,026 is not much better and still 12% lower than the Swans average attendance of 1997 which was 35,818. Its just that some people are trying to talk up the "record growth of AFL in Sydney", when its very far from the truth, especially for the Swans.
Don Freo
Guest
There seems to be a joy that we Freo fans enjoy that escapes other supporters. Maybe it's because we believe our posts. Try typing without your fingers crossed.
Don Freo
Guest
Ruckmen have a great impact in the square. Poor ruckmen don't. Taps are one thing. Just because a team doesn't win a clearance doesn't mean the tap is poor. Someone has been tackled or the tap might be fumbled. Not a ruckman's error. Winning tap ruckmen like Naitanui, Sandi, Minson and Warnock can be good if they follow up. Warnock fails here because he just stands around and watches after the tap. NickNat, Sandi and Will bullock open pathways, block tap on and protect others. None of those earn stats so press jockeys question value. No-one pays $800K/a if a club sees no value. Nick, Sandi and Will are super valuable.
Don Freo
Guest
Who do you think freo has had out for more than one game? Walters, Mundy, Barlow, Fyfe, De Boer, Hill, McPharlin, Johnson, Clarke all out for 2 or more. You two just don't really understand stuff, do you? The only two who took issue.