The Hawks went top, the Crows went bust, the Blues went close, the Pies went back, the Cats went on, the Power went out. Four games to go, and ramifications all over the ladder keep playing out.
The real manic movement in the top four will run from next weekend to the close, with Fremantle, Geelong and Hawthorn all playing each other and fifth-placed Port lining up Sydney and Freo.
But even this week’s more predictable results have had their influence.
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Geelong had the hardest job of the top sides, coming away with a strong win against North Melbourne to stay level on points with standard-setters Sydney and Hawthorn. North have flummoxed other good sides this year, but the Cats held them comfortably all night. Which sound quite romantic, when you think about it.
North challenged regularly but the Cats finally put together a consistent match, with eight goals in each half making sure they weren’t headed. The only doubt was whether beating North makes you a rubbish team, given the Roos’ tendency to beat the best and lose to the rest.
Now facing two games in Melbourne and two interstate teams at Kardinia Park, as well as the chance to take points off two immediate rivals, the Cats have direct control of their fate. First they have to find a way past bogey side Fremantle in one of those classic eight-point games.
The Dockers got away with a win that nearly wasn’t against Carlton, when a loss would have dropped them two games off the pace in fourth place, while Hawthorn passed Sydney into top spot by virtue of a bigger percentage boost.
But all those teams should have won easily enough. The biggest winners of the round were Collingwood and Gold Coast, snapping runs of poor form to get back on the winners’ list and remain in finals contention.
Collingwood downed Port Adelaide in the game of the round, one of those manically energetic games of football ultimately decided by a few moments of fortune, a few of brilliance, and single-goal margin.
The Suns, meanwhile, had St Kilda at home in what was an easy game on paper, but given Gold Coast’s recent disintegration against low-ranked sides and St Kilda’s demolition of Fremantle, nothing was sure.
That all left Pies eighth place and Gold Coast ninth, joining the Kangaroos and Bombers to form a raft of teams on 40 points jostling for three finals spots. It’s all down to who drops points: Collingwood face a trip to West Coast and a game against Hawthorn, while the others have reasonably friendly fixtures, but Essendon versus Gold Coast in Round 22 may settle the issue.
Toward the non-September end of the draw, recent weeks have seen Richmond, West Coast and Brisbane stringing form together. The former two could feasibly finish with ten wins after forgettable seasons, which may inspire less happiness than lament over missed opportunities. The Lions now have six wins and a far less bleak outlook, and have skipped away from the bottom three after being the lowest side for much of the year.
As far as the round’s biggest losers, though, it was a depressing footballing day in South Australia’s capital. Adelaide’s miss against the Eagles dropped them from eighth to tenth, and now a game behind the top-eight traffic jam. From here they’d have to make it past two of those four teams, a tough ask even with a reasonable draw.
Port’s narrow loss was their fourth in five starts, only punctuated by a lucky three-point home win over competition struggler Melbourne. It has been a mighty fall after starting the season with 11 wins from 13, with only a couple of narrow losses to good teams.
Port remain safe in fifth, two games ahead of North, but and have Sydney and Freo in their last four games, and now drop a game below Freo outside the four. A decent win would have seen them claim fourth on percentage. It’s still possible in the next month, but a whole lot of mojo has to be found again, and soon.
North would rank theirs as a big loss as well – two games adrift of Port, and three from Fremantle, their hope of skating into the top four through a finish-line crash has now vanished.
The Roos’ general play was more than good enough to stay with the Cats on Saturday, but a lack of composure saw them offer unnecessary free kicks, 50-metre penalties, and terrible conversion. A halftime score of 3.10 is pretty appalling, and a final line of 10.19 isn’t much better, especially in a game with only four or five goals in it.
Boomer Harvey’s men will now have to set their sights on staying in sixth, but with a stack of other teams breathing down their neck, there’s not going to be a release in pressure.
Brian
Guest
I agree but I don't think it counts for anything in terms of Hawthorn v Geelong. If Sydney & Geelong win this weekend and I think they will then its almost certain to be Hawthorn v Geelong in Week 1 at the MCG. Its the winner of that game who won't travel. The biggest thing my team needs is to get Rioli, Hill & Smith back in the team so we can match it with your elite runners in that first week.
Cat
Roar Guru
But teams will want to finish top 2 so they have no risk of travelling interstate, top 4 is good, but this year with 2 interstate teams in the mix, top 2 is even more important. Not saying it will continue but so far this year when two of the current top 5 have met the home team is 11-0.
Brian
Guest
I don't think the Round 22 Hawthorn v Geelong will mean that much. If Geelong beat Freo this weekend then all either team has to do for top 3 is win 2 other games, which they almost certainly will. So as a Hawthorn fan if Geelong win this this week we only need to beat Melbourne and Collingwood to play the first week in Melbourne against Geelong. Based on Freo's form I can't see them beating Geelong at all. They might beat Hawthorn in Perth but either way they'll probably go to Sydney in Week 1.
EddyJ
Guest
No Gene, that was a free kick, but you're right. Thomas' response was abysmal and the umpire should have reversed the free kick, or at least applauded for a fine piece of acting. Umpires don't deliberately award free kicks that aren't there. As Freud said, there is no such thing as truth, only interpretation. However, their poor decisions certainly affected North Melbourne more than Geelong but that's just how the game is (and not just in the AFL).
Geoff Lemon
Expert
They did look their best for a long time, Michael. Though if North had kicked straight the game would have had a lot more pressure.
Geoff Lemon
Expert
I think Geelong's influence is down to whether they finish top two. If they can get an interstate team in a home final they'll be a shot, if they have to travel to face Sydney or Freo then the double chance won't help them much. They have to beat Fremantle and Hawthorn in the next couple of weeks. Can't wait to see.
Geoff Lemon
Expert
Couldn't agree more about the season, Olivia, it has been shifting week to week, and could end up any number of ways in four weeks' time. I'm hoping the Suns can gather enough confidence to at least take on their last few games and make a contest. And yes, the poor old Tigers fans hearing the same old story...
Cat
Roar Guru
yeah I can't remember who it was either.
the 13th Man
Roar Rookie
Yes pretty similar, only difference is I have Hawthorn and Fremantle beating Geelong and the Cats drop to 4th because of bad percentage 1. Sydney 72 2. Hawthorn 72 3. Fremantle 64 4. Geelong 64 5. Port 56 6. North 52 7. Essendon 52 8. Crows 48 AND 9. Collingwood 48 (miss on%) 10. Richmond 44 11. GC 44 12. WCE 40 The rest doesn't really matter! Which would set up finals Sydney V Geelong (ANZ) Hawks v Freo (MCG) Port V Crows (Adelaide Oval) North V Essendon (Etihad)
Me Too
Guest
Port had a lot of the team go down with gastro. Likely now it's actually meningitis - one player in hospital diagnosed. It explains their lethargic performance, but not Collingwood's.
Cat
Roar Guru
yes but they've been in bad form for 5 weeks now and going by yesterdays game, don't look like breaking out of it.
Aransan
Guest
Gene and slane, we have seen lower order teams have a few good weeks and higher teams have a few bad weeks in sequence this season. The complication for Port is that oppositions have worked out how to play them, can they respond in terms of another strategy and yesterday might not have been as bad as it looked. Form can turn quite quickly.
Lroy
Guest
Well you'd have to say West Coasts season has been a disapointment unless they can roll the Pies this week, that and a couple of other late wins could give them some optimism looking toward next year. The young guys are doing well.. keep playing them I say ;-) There forward line looks better when Josh Hill is in the side... he drifts in and out of games sure.. but he can take a nice grab and usually manages to kick a couple of goals He is hard to match up on given Darling, Kennedy and LeCras are going to get the best deffenders... handy player Hill. Backline has been solid all year, midfield found some run against the Crows, was good to see.
slane
Guest
Did they have a cold for the last month? They've been a shadow of themselves gor 5 weeks now.
Cat
Roar Guru
That might work if it was a once off, but Ports form for the last 5 weeks has been very poor. their only win in that period was a narrow one over ladder struggler Melbourne.
Cat
Roar Guru
I understand that, my comment still stands, the team that's now taking the field is very different from the team that played the first 2/3rds of the year.
Aransan
Guest
If Port's form turns around next week the explanation might be illness affecting the team yesterday. Coaches will correctly never use that as an excuse for being beaten.
andyl12
Guest
Gene- I mean very early in the season. You won your first five games- since then there has been little of what I would call premiership football.
Cat
Roar Guru
Was a good win for the Wobbles but I am not convinced it was a great one. Port look completely spent and out of confidence. I'm not writing of the Pies making the 8 but I am unconvinced this game was as big a form reversal as some people think.
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
Reckon Collingwood's win was one of the best of their season. Stood up against the Power and their young defenders playing well. Funnily enough, Collingwood's from hit a dip when Cloke surged. Now they are both in sync.