The opening week of the AFL finals didn’t disappoint, with two quality sides pulling away, a thrilling come-from-behind victory and a statement win.
The results leave us with six premiership hopefuls, each with an interesting claim to our attention.
Even the side least-favoured, North Melbourne, have a surprising 4-2 record against the clubs still alive at this point. Of those, only Geelong have beaten the Roos in 2014.
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It makes for an interesting contrast with the sides that finished above North.
Hawthorn, Geelong, Fremantle and Port Adelaide each have losing records against opposition from the final six.
Think about that. The Hawks and Cats have each lost five games against the teams they’re still fighting with. The Dockers have lost six. Port have only won three. The cases for these teams don’t stack up particularly well based on this information.
And North can’t exactly hang their hat on coming up better, either.
Their record has been helped by not having to play the top sides as often as the others. On top of that, luck – such as meeting Sydney in the opening month of the season and not later – has contributed too.
Referring to these records is important because how you perform – or don’t perform – against the best can be a good indicator of what to expect in September.
It takes away the ‘gimme’ wins against lowly opposition and gives an insight into what each team was like when the spotlight was on.
Maybe looking at wins and losses, even if they’re wins and losses in ‘big’ games, is too basic. Maybe there are more important factors to look at.
But then again, maybe it’s foolish to overlook the fact you can’t build a convincing argument for any of the above five clubs winning the flag based on how they’ve performed in big matches across the season.
And maybe it’s foolish to overlook that there’s one side separate to them whose record does stack up.
Yep, that would be the Swans. When the top teams have come along, Sydney have stood up, having won six times and lost only twice.
They’ve beaten Hawthorn. They’ve beaten Fremantle twice. They’ve beaten Port Adelaide twice. They’ve beaten Geelong – by 110 points.
One suspects had they met North at any point after that disastrous opening month, they would’ve beaten them too.
This is the foundation for a good September. On the weekend against Fremantle, by leading for most of the match and gradually wearing down the Dockers’ defence, they showed their run can continue into finals.
This just demonstrates that based on results to date, the Swans have a better case than anyone.
But let’s move on and put past performance to one side for a bit. You might not completely buy that particular argument. You might want to see more.
Instead, let’s look forward.
Now, ask yourself a simple question: which of the remaining sides has the best path to the flag?
Obviously, both preliminary finalists would be happy to have the week off right now and to hold home ground advantage next weekend. Of those two sides, whose shoes would you rather be in?
Would you rather be the Hawks, who must play either Fremantle or Port Adelaide?
That preliminary final is looming as a tough game. You’re either facing the second or third best defence in the comp. Both sides managed to beat the Hawks the last time they met, too.
Or, would you rather be the Swans, who must play either Geelong or North Melbourne?
That’s either the side who lost to the Swans by 110 points and have struggled to match Hawthorn twice this past month, or North, who’ve shown enough vulnerabilities over the course of the season to suggest they won’t be a big player late in September and would in all likelihood be coming of a second gruelling win were they to make it.
Yeah, I’m going to go with Sydney on this.
Throw in the minor point that if the Swans win next weekend they have an extra day off, and may very well be coming off the ‘lighter’ prelim physically, it’s clear their path to glory is the smoothest of the sides that are left.
So, just to recap, if you look backwards it’s the Swans with the most going for them.
If you look forwards it’s the Swans with the most going for them.
Drilling down, it’s not hard to see why. The forward quartet of Lance Franklin, Kurt Tippett, Sam Reid and Adam Goodes is firing. They’ve got the top defence in the competition, and the good news is Nick Malceski seems to have avoided serious injury.
Then in the midfield, the depth of star talent is crazy to think about. There’s no shortage of match-winners there.
Right now, the club-most-likely is quite clearly Sydney. That doesn’t mean the flag is theirs, but it does mean their current slight favouritism may be selling them short.
As far as the premiership is concerned, the Swans are the side in the box seat.
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
I think you misrepresenting what was said there by quite a wide margin. I wasn't saying Freo were disadvantaged by the conditions. In fact what I did say was that they weren't that significant in the result.
Davico
Guest
Is it just me or did both teams play on the same ground? The way Dal and Do Freo make it out Freo played on a Bog and Sydney on a dry track. I thought Freo had all the advantage if it was wet???
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
Sorry Dal, meant Stevie J
Me Too
Guest
One away game against a top four team. One. Have a look at Freo, Hawks, and Geelong - all with away games against the top four. All four of these these teams finished top four last year. According to the afl's new 'seeded' fixture all would play h and a against each other. One team didn't. Ask yourself why. Also look at the ladder and realise if the swans had played one more top four game away and lost (as they all did) they would have finished fourth. To say there are no soft draws is simplistic and obviously wrong. It's why the AFL came up with the whole idea of the 'seeded' fixture in the first place.
Gregor
Guest
Do some research then. The Swans average 20 free kicks for in their home games this season and 16 free kicks for in their away games.They also give away an average of 18 free kicks in their away games.They are obviously poorer in their capacity to get frees when they play away.This might be a problem if they make it to the MCG. They could always lose because of it. It is possible of course that Freo have played their dud game and glory awaits As Damon Runyon once added to Solomon "the race is not always to the swift nor the battle to the strong,but that's the way to bet
Davico
Guest
Balt he is talking about one bloke who has played 9 years with the MCG as his home ground not the whole team and you came back with a knock on the same bloke who has had plenty of good final series (prob better than the freo team combined!!!) and won a GF!!! Keep digging pal. Keep talking up your team as it is all the better when you and Don go missing for a few days when you lose and can't accept that your team is not the all-conquering team you make them out to be. Enjoy whatever it is you will be doing GF day when your team is on their off-season break!!!
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
Deity indeed! Fyfe is the players MVP.
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
The only thing is, this is 2014.
Natalie SwansFan
Guest
Well if Mal departs, as well as recent retirees Rhino and LRT, perhaps Goodes if he settles on 3 flags, we should be able to throw money at Dangerfield at the end of 2015. Is he a free agent then? Patty Ryder this year maybe. Considering everyone thinks we have a big pile of cola there to throw at people, he will be a good ruck option.
deccas
Guest
If one team is consistently giving away more free kicks than the otehr in finals maybe it has something to do with their style of footy? Or maybe there is a conspiracy to get the swans to the final, and all the umps were got into a room to ensure this happens.
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
Was not at the game Eddy, but I have ventured to ANZ many times. Pile of sh***t ground if you ask me, but I can understand why the AFl play there. Will definitely be out there for the prelim. Hopefully my Cats can get up this week so I can see them again. Don't get to watch them a lot. Only saving grace is the Swans generally don't play as well at ANZ. I'm also hoping it's going to be another bog heap since the Cats are pretty good in those conditions. Dry conditions and we are screwing the pooch.
AB
Guest
I thought Buddy looked constrained within Hawthorn's game plan and 'structures' (gee I hate that word) over the past 2-3 seasons. I'd often watch a Hawthorn game and think what a shame it was that Buddy's role didn't allow him to play to his full potential. At Sydney he seems to have a bit more freedom. To be given a longer leash, if you like. Even though I'm a Hawthorn supporter, I reckon it's great for footy to see Buddy given more leeway. I still love watching him play just as much as I did when he was a Hawk.
asd
Guest
Yeah sydney look the goods .But so do the hawks to . Theres no Box seat . Only off days , inaccurate kicking getting stunned. Didnt come to play bad luck good luck. These things have happened in finals over the years. Just look at geelong 2008 or the saints 2009. Bulldogs 97
Mango Jack
Guest
Yes, your COLA Swans are playing well, Natalie. Who will the COLA Swans buy next year? Just like mega-rich businessmen who can't have enough yachts in the harbour or Ferraris in the garage, it seems the COLA Swans can't have enough power forwards in the forward 50.
EddyJ
Guest
Yet another uninformed post about free kicks – just because they are uneven, it doesn't mean the umpires are inconsistent or favouring one team. It just means a team has infringed more often. There are reams of research about this. Umpires do favour home crowds, because of intimidation and noise from the crowd accentuating a slight infringement, and making the umpire feel that it's a free kick worth playing. But also, away teams are more prone to make errors because they are in unfamiliar environments. But, umpires do their best and do not deliberately favour a team. They call it as they see it (taking into account the home ground issues that I mentioned). Some teams 'play' the umpires better, or their tactics are more likely to result in more free kicks (such as Geelong). It's a bit of a tall order to suggest that umpires are against particular teams.
EddyJ
Guest
Exactly. You do your best to get the best position on the ladder (the top four), and then it's the best performing team in the finals.
EddyJ
Guest
Where is this 'soft draw' that you speak about? No easy games in AFL.
EddyJ
Guest
I was at the game at ANZ Stadium, and the conditions were quite swirly and inconsistent. During the warm ups, quite a few players were slipping over while kicking, so the conditions weren't that great. But looking at the television replay, the skills were surprisingly good. Of course, when you're in your armchair watching the game at home, you don't get an idea of what the conditions are really like. I can really understand why Gary Rohan made the mistakes he made earlier on in the match, but when you watch it on television, it looks like a dud kick. It was pouring with rain in Sydney up until 12pm on the day, not to mention all the rain in the preceding days – I was expecting a cross between a swimming pool and a mud heap, but surprised to see the ground looking good. 'Looking good' being the operative words here, because I'm pretty sure the grass was actually covering up a mud heap.
EddyJ
Guest
"If last weekends game had been at Subi I have no doubt the result would have been different." But it wasn't. It was played in Sydney. There are just too many what ifs in these arguments. Also, the MCG is not such a home ground factor for Victorian teams on Grand Final day. The stats for interstate teams are: Wins: West Coast v Geelong 1992 and 1994, Adelaide v St Kilda, North Melbourne 1997 and 1998, Brisbane v Essendon, Collingwood 2001, 2002 and 2003, Sydney v Hawthorn 2012. Losses: Sydney v North Melbourne 1996, Port Adelaide v Geelong 2007, Fremantle v Hawthorn 2013. 8–3 in favour of interstate teams.
AB
Guest
I agree with you Michael. A Hawks vs Swans GF looks the most likely outcome and would be very hard to pick. Assuming both get through with no further injuries, I might venture a very, very slight edge of favouritism for the Hawks, based on home ground advantage and a slightly more impressive season overall (finishing almost dead level with Sydney despite a tougher draw and a worse run of injuries). But it might all come down, as it did in 2012, to whether Buddy kicks straight!