The search for the best chance of an upset win in the first week of the NRL finals keeps leading me back to Canterbury against Melbourne.
Wins by the favourites in all four games would surprise no-one, but I also wouldn’t be surprised by an upset – or upsets.
Rating the games in order of their potential for an upset, I go with the Storm-Bulldogs clash on top, followed by North Queensland-Brisbane, Manly-South Sydney and Sydney Roosters-Penrith.
MORE NRL FINALS
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» 2014 NRL Finals: full guide to week one
» Roosters vs Penrith preview
» Manly vs South Sydney preview
» North Queensland vs Brisbane preview
» Melbourne vs Canterbury preview
It may sound very basic and boring to talk about completion rates, but Bulldogs coach Des Hasler made a very good point at his media conference on Wednesday when he identified poor ball control as being at the root of his team’s recent failures.
If they continue to complete at a similar rate to what they have done recently, the Bulldogs are in big trouble on the road against Melbourne – whether Storm hooker and captain Cameron Smith plays or not.
If they complete at a good rate or better, they are right in this match.
Melbourne generally played very well over the last four rounds of the regular season, winning three games and losing one, but I think that is as well as they can play.
Coach Craig Bellamy drives his players hard and they play to such a high level during the season that it is very hard for them to improve in the finals.
That was their problem at the business end of last season, when they exited from the finals with back-to-back losses to Souths and Newcastle in the first two weeks.
It remains to be seen whether Smith plays. He sustained a high ankle sprain in the last-round win over Brisbane and although he made it back onto the field in that game it was the post-game period after he cooled down that mattered.
Smith has been getting a lot of treatment and from all reports hasn’t done anything meaningful on the training track this week, which has to be a worry.
He may well play, but if he does will it be at the risk of him being below his best and aggravating the injury?
Canterbury stumbled through the last eight rounds, losing four games straight before winning two and then losing their last two, but immediately before that four-round losing streak began they beat Melbourne 6-4 at AAMI Park, the venue for Sunday’s clash.
All three Storm superstars – Smith, Billy Slater and Cooper Cronk – played in that game.
Canterbury have a good record against the Storm since losing to them in the 2012 grand final. They have met four times since and the Bulldogs have won three of those games.
In Round 4 this season, the Bulldogs murdered the Storm 40-12 at NIB Stadium in Perth. Smith missed that game because of injury.
Last season, Melbourne won an early-season clash between the two teams, 22-18. Their second clash came during the State of Origin period, when representative players were unavailable. The Bulldogs beat the badly-depleted Storm 39-0 at ANZ Stadium.
Compared to recent form, the Bulldogs have got an enormous amount of improvement in them on Sunday – if they are able to make that improvement.
It would, of course, help if halves Josh Reynolds and Trent Hodkinson lifted their games to something like the pre-State of Origin level that got them into the NSW team, but that could easily happen.
Reynolds and Hodkinson don’t need huge games for Canterbury to win, but they need to be better than what they have been recently.
Canterbury won’t try to blitz the Storm in attack. They will aim to keep the intensity up, get the forward drive going and smother them in defence, hopefully frustrating Melbourne into a few mistakes along the way.
And that approach might just work.
HarryT
Guest
I hope you are chuckling over these learned comments Greg.
Jackson Henry
Roar Guru
Hmmm. Depends. I think if they play to their agility, then yes. But this sort of gameplan requires maturity and focus...which aren't the Broncos' strong points. Brisbane's results this year haven't been a true indication of performance. Interestingly enough, they get the Friday nigths and that, yes, but they've also lost a whole bunch of close geames where they were probably the better side. Which is their own fault, but still. And it plays to those traits of maturity and focus, doesn't it.
Jackson Henry
Roar Guru
I actually agree with Greg on this. Not sure the Storm are capable of playing too much better than they have been, and plus, Smith and Slater particularly just look exhausted. I won't back the Dogs here, but I think the Storm will probably win tomorrow, should go alright against Manly, but that will be it. Which is actually a highyl successful season, by any measure.
The Barry
Guest
Scott do you reckon any of those guys will be banned at this time of year? I can't see it. Manly get an extra two days recovery than storm or bulldogs.
Birdy
Guest
Watching the dogs this season makes me think what would happen to a rugby team playing in the NRL , huge men right across the park with little idea of how to stop , go through or around their opponents. They would probably kick a lot of goals from 60 meters though
Rick Karaitiana
Guest
I hope the Storm will win, and think they will, but this is Finals Football, so its game on, forget passed scores, predictions are just that its after the final whistle is the one that counts. After watching Manly and Souths, who-ever plays Manly are up against a wounded Tiger and the big Baring on that match will be the NRL Review Board,
Realist 1975
Guest
Scott, Melbourne should win then IMHO. However it should be a close game given the Dogs pack consisting of quality forwards in Graham, Tolman and a returning Frank Pritchard. Dogs right centre (Lafai) has also performed quite strongly this year. Side track - Lafai & Auva’a (Souths LH centre) should be the Samoan centres in the upcoming Tri Nations.
Muzz
Guest
Hastings / L'Estrange Casty Evans FPN
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
The big news from the Souths v Manly match is huge for either the Storm or the Bulldogs as the winner will play Manly next week and they have three key players on report Foran, Watmough and Lyon as well as their hooker Hodges in hospital with neck injuries.
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
Realist Cam will play
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
Muzz I expect FPN + hastings and l’estrange all to play.
Benny
Guest
Yeah well i doubt he'll play hastings and l'estrange so it'll be evans and someone else
Muzz
Guest
Bench doesn't look Robbo like imo Gut feel and i trust mi gut : )
Benny
Guest
what makes you say that muzz? Roosters website says week 2. Robbo looked pretty mischievous in his presso though
oli
Guest
2 teams you better not predict that they will stumble, Manly and Storm!
Muzz
Guest
FPN will play.
Albo
Guest
You can't really believe Cam Smith won't be playing ??? They didn't amputate did they ?
Knightblues
Roar Guru
not this time Im afraid, the broncs are 1 game away from mad monday
Albo
Guest
The Broncos have a better team culture & passion and 7 x State of Origin players versus 3 from the Cowboys ! That gives them a great chance to upset the Townsville mob who regularly disappoint this time of year !
Albo
Guest
I'm with you Max ! I see two upsets this weekend, with the Panthers over the Roosters & Broncos over Cowboys. Souths & Melbourne will romp in !