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For the first time in NRL history we’ve got an all-Sydney top four. The boys from Manly take on the Bunnies on Friday night, while Penrith face the defending premier Roosters on Saturday.
So what do the statistics say about the two matches? Which two teams are set for a week off?
Manly versus South Sydney
7:55pm, Friday 12 September, Allianz Stadium
The history
This is the 150th game between these two sides dating back to 1947. It stands at 70 wins for the Rabbitohs, 77 for the Sea Eagles, with 2 draws.
Manly have won 13 of the 22 games between the sides over the last decade. Last year they knocked the Bunnies out of the finals one match short of the grand final. Manly have also won 8 of the 11 games between the two sides at this venue. However, the last time they met at Allianz/SFS was in 2005 and it was a massive win to the Bunnies by 44-6. The 19-point win to the Rabbitohs in Round 22 was the biggest winning margin between these sides since 2007.
Defence
In defence South Sydney have been the benchmark for 2014. They’ve missed an average of only 19.5 tackles a match. Manly’s renowned defence has averaged 6 more misses a game. The Rabbitohs have also conceded the least metres and line breaks of any NRL side this year. They concede 1 fewer line break than the Sea Eagles and 60 fewer metres.
Manly’s Matt Ballin is tackling stoopid. The absence of his average of 42-plus tackles a game – along with Glenn Stewart’s 22 and Jamie Buhrer’s 27.5 – will further challenge the Sea Eagle’s ability to keep pace with the ‘roadkill’ Rabbitohs.
Look for South Sydney to target Kieran Foran, Peta Hiku and Daly Cherry-Evans in defence as each averages two missed tackles a game. Kirisome Auva’a and Luke Keary both miss an average of two tackles and will be targeted by the Manly attack.
Both sides concede the NRL average of 6.5 penalties a game in 2014. Luke and Sam Burgess, as well as Adam Reynolds, are the men most likely to concede for the Rabbitohs. Justin Horo, Jamie Lyon and Josh Starling are the worst regular offenders for the Sea Eagles.
Attack
South Sydney have scored 11 more trys and conceded 10 fewer than the Sea Eagles in 2014. The red and green also average one extra line break a match, having made 18 more than Manly this year. Surprisingly, the boys from Brookvale are the third-worst metre gaining side in 2014, making on average 65 fewer metres than the Rabbitohs.
When it comes to tackle breaks South Sydney are also in front. They average 29.3 tackle busts a game, which is 6 more than Manly. The Rabbitohs will have six players who average over 100 metres a game on the field (Sam Burgess, George Burgess, Greg Inglis, Dylan Walker, Auva’a and Thomas Burgess), while Manly will only have two (Anthony Watmough and Jorge Taufua).
Manly’s left side attack in Hiku and Steve Matai has scored 30 of Manly’s 90 tries this season; Dylan Walker and Alex Johnston will have their work cut out for them trying to stop the Manly duo. Tafua and Brett Stewart have 18 tries between them as well. This means over 50 per cent of the Sea Eagles tries come on the edges.
Only three of Souths players haven’t scored a try this year. While Johnston leads the way with 17, there is no doubt that the biggest threat comes from Sam Burgess and Inglis, who boast 20 tries between them this year.
One area where Manly does have an edge is in their experienced playmakers. DCE, Foran, Lyon, Matai and Brett Stewart have been there and done that. They have contributed 40 line break assists and 61 try assists so far this year. Reynolds, Keary, John Sutton, Walker and Inglis only have 38 line break assists and 46 try assists between them for the Rabbitohs.
The danger men
Sam Burgess is a colossus who will be sorely missed by the Bunnies in 2015. This season he boasts 12 line breaks, 64 tackle breaks, 35 tackles and 158 metres a match to go with his 10 trys. He had a quiet one last week and the Sea Eagles will need to make that happen again if they are to be any chance.
Greg Inglis is said to be carrying a hip injury but even at half power he’s a superstar. This season he has 16 line breaks, 98 tackle breaks and 150 metres a game to go with his 10 tries.
Steve Matai is having probably been his best ever season. He has become the Sea Eagles’ number one strike weapon in 2014 and boasts some pretty great stats: 100 metres per match, 53 tackle breaks, 15 line breaks, 11 line break assists, 9 try assists and 13 tries. Not bad for an old guy.
Brett Stewart has had a quiet year by his standards but still has amassed 14 line break assists, 20 try assists, 9 line breaks, 50 tackle breaks, 8 trys and 93 metres a game. If he can find his top form it will be big trouble for the Rabbitohs.
Who is going to win and why
The Rabbitohs have the stats all over Manly. They score more points and concede fewer. They make more metres and concede fewer. They break tackles and the line more frequently than Manly too.
Further, Manly have been cruelled by crucial injuries. The losses of Ballin, Glenn Stewart and Jamie Buhrer can’t be covered with enough quality to hold the Rabbitohs fearsome pack.
Rabbitohs by 26.
Sydney Roosters versus Penrith Panthers
5:50pm, Saturday 13 September, Allianz Stadium
The history
This is the 90th game between these two sides dating back to 1967.
The record stands heavily in the Roosters favour: 55 wins, 32 losses and 2 draws. The Roosters have won the last three encounters between the sides by an average score of 34-8.
Further, the Roosters appear to be hitting top form at exactly the right time, coming into this match on a six-game winning streak that has included victories over contenders Melbourne and Souths. The boys from Bondi have the mental edge.
At Allianz Stadium the Roosters have won 11 of the 18 matches played between these two sides since 1988. You can expect a big margin of victory in this game, as eight of the last ten matches between these two sides have had margins of 13+.
Defence
Both of these teams have featured great defence in 2014 and very little separates them. While the Roosters concede 17 fewer metres a game than the Panthers, both are in the bottom five for this stat. Further, both are in the bottom three for linebreaks conceded, with only a stuck match between them. While Penrith have conceded ten more trys than the Roosters, both sides are in the best five teams for this stat.
When it comes to the players, with the injury to Jake Friend and suspension of Aidan Guerra the Roosters have lost their two chief defenders. How Isaac Liu and Mitch Aubusson perform at lock and hooker could well decide the result of this game. However, Penrith enforcer and lock Adam Docker is also out suspended and Elijah Taylor is injured which leaves Penrith without two of their best defenders too.
Looking at the missed tackle stats you can be certain that both sides halves are going to be targeted in defence. For the Roosters James Maloney is a virtual turnstile, averaging 3.4 misses a game. Meanwhile, Mitchell Pearce averages 2.4 misses a game. It doesn’t read any better for Penrith with makeshift five-eighth William Smith averaging 3.2 misses a game and captain Jamie Soward 2.5 misses a match.
The Roosters, having been the very worst offenders in 2013, are conceding exactly the same amount of penalties per game as the Panthers this year. Both are in the top-five worst offenders this year and between them feature three of the top four worst offenders in 2014. Leading the way is Jared Waerea-Hargreaves with 27, followed closely by James Segeyaro with 26. In fourth spot is last year’s worst offender, James Maloney.
This match will feature 15-plus penalties given away and those three will most likely have their hands on the ball/take too long to get up/flop/rake the ball out/stand offside at some stage. The big question is whether we’ll see another sin bin for a professional foul this weekend following on from the Auva’a binning last weekend.
Attack
Scoring is where these two sides really start to separate. The Roosters – the number one try scoring side this year – have scored 16 more tries this season than the Panthers and have conceded 13 fewer tries. Only the Rabbitohs have conceded fewer tries than the Roosters this year. This means that the Roosters are a 1.2 try a game better side than the Panthers.
Between them, Josh Mansour, Matt Moylan, Dean Whare and James Segeyaro have scored 42 tries this season. However, the strike power of Anthony Minichello, Daniel Tupou, Michael Jennings and Shaun Kenny-Dowall has scored 48 combined.
Soward and Moylan share 21 line break assists and 30 try assists. Maloney and Pearce boast 28 line break assists and 35 try assists, making them clearly the more lethal playmakers.
The chief problem the Panthers have is that only Mansour, Segeyaro and Moylan regularly break the line, sharing 35 between them. The Roosters have seven players who frequently get through defences. Minichello, Tupou, Maloney, Pearce, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Boyd Cordner and Kenny-Dowall share 80 line breaks.
The danger men
Minichello is playing like a player in his early seasons, not one in his last – 105 metres a game, 14 line breaks, 15 tries and 54 tackle breaks are the stats of a champion. He is not going to die wondering in this finals series and may well rip sides apart.
Cordner has been in Sonny Bill Williams’ shadow for no good reason. This year his stats have been outstanding – 11 line breaks, 37 tackle breaks, 115 metres and 29 tackles a game and 9 tries for the season are the stats of a champion back rower. Penrith must contain him.
Segeyaro is central to the Panthers chances. His 14 line breaks, 72 tackle breaks, 33 tackles a game and 10 tries are a big factor in the Penrith top-four finish.
Mansour is staying in Penrith and Ivan Cleary will be very happy with that. His 132 tackle breaks, 14 tries, 12 line breaks and an average of 165 metres a match in 2014 have been a standout.
Soward’s stats don’t look to great on paper and I must say that when Penrith recruited him I wondered what on earth they were thinking. Now I know. His kicking game is outstanding and he has marshalled his troops around the park with precision and determination. Gus Gould and Ivan knew what they were doing. If the Panthers have a chance at victory it really rests on the shoulders of the little bloke from the ACT.
Who is going to win and why
Although the Roosters could really feel the absence of Guerra and Friend in defence – and the Panthers’ superb ability to execute their game plan could put the Roosters on the back foot – it is hard to see the pure attacking strike power of the Roosters being denied.
While the Panthers have proven a very tough opponent all season, the Roosters despatched them easily in Round 19 when Docker and Taylor were playing (although Mansour wasn’t) and it’s hard to imagine it will be any different this time.
Roosters by 16.