No Test player is more irreplaceable to their side than Pakistan spinner Saeed Ajmal. But his ban for throwing last week does not guarantee Australia victory in the two-Test series against Pakistan next month.
Only 18 months ago, Australia were flogged 4-0 in India, with their batsmen befuddled by a pair of average spinners in Ravi Ashwin and Ravindra Jadeja.
The surfaces in the UAE for the Tests against Pakistan are expected to aid the slow bowlers. They may not be quite as dusty as the decks on which Australia floundered in India last year but they are certainly not the type of surfaces on which they typically thrive.
Ajmal won’t be there, however the tourists will still have to contend with a skillful left-arm tweaker in Abdur Rehman and at least one more spinner.
Incredibly, all of Ajmal’s deliveries were found to be illegal during the testing of his action ordered by the International Cricket Council. It was expected that it would be his doosra which would come under most scrutiny.
The fact that during testing he more than doubled the permissible 15 degrees of flex in his bowling arm suggests he faces an extremely long road back to international cricket.
Ajmal will have to completely overhaul his action. Given he turns 37 next month it is entirely possible that he may never return. If he does, it seems improbable that he will be as effective.
Over his past 22 Tests, Ajmal has reaped 119 wickets at an average of 25. Pakistan have been phenomenally reliant on him during that period.
When they needed to break a partnership, Ajmal was the man. When they needed to slow the run rate, Ajmal was the man. When they needed a miracle, who else would they turn to?
The veteran tweaker was shaping as a frightening opponent for Australia, whose batsmen last year were routed by slow bowlers in India and then menaced by offie Graeme Swann on tailor-made English decks.
In the four-Test series against India, Jadeja and Ashwin combined for a remarkable 53 wickets at an average of 19.
Many of the Australian batsmen were exposed as having either no plan or a faulty strategy for combating spin on helpful surfaces.
Even without Ajmal on the field, Australia face a significant challenge in the form of Pakistan spinners Abdur Rehman and Mohammad Hafeez.
Rehman is similar in style to fellow left armer Jadeja. The 34-year-old does not deliver the ball with an extravagant amount of loop or rip, preferring to dart it at the stumps in search of bowled and LBW dismissals.
He has been a quiet achiever, snaring 54 wickets at an average of 26 from his past 12 Tests. Rehman may have operated in the shadow of Ajmal but he is not to be underestimated.
England discovered this on their tour to the UAE in 2012 when, as the world’s number one side, they were torn apart by Rehman, who collected 19 wickets at 17 as Pakistan romped home in the three-Test series.
Pakistan will almost certainly field a second specialist spinner alongside Rehman. Who that will be is not clear, although left armer Zulfiqar Babar would appear the man most likely to replace Ajmal.
In addition to two frontline spinners Australia may have to contend with all-rounder Mohammad Hafeez, who has blossomed from a part time off spinner into a dangerous bowler.
Hafeez was dropped during Pakistan’s recent Test series against Sri Lanka but is likely to be recalled as Pakistan seek to exploit Australia’s frailty against spin.
In Junaid Khan and Wahab Riaz, Pakistan also have a new ball pair capable of testing Australia’s top order.
Regardless of Ajmal’s omission, Australia have a big task ahead of them to defeat Pakistan in next month’s Test series.
Jawad Yaqub
Roar Guru
It'd have been better if Pakistan came here for the four-test series instead of India. Last time they played a test series in Australia was the summer of 09/10 if I'm not mistaken.
Jawad Yaqub
Roar Guru
If Mohammad Irfan is fit, then he should definitely be a choice to play the bouncy Dubai pitch.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Marsh absolutely has a long way to go and I'd prefer he isn't rushed. Of the two Maxwell is definitely more ready for Test cricket but I don't think either are needed at this stage.
Nudge
Guest
Bearfax,it's clear the new Australian selectors think Mitch Marsh is something special. They have picked him on a hunch, disregarding his first class batting record, although an average of close to 50 from his last 11 first class matches is highly impressive for anyone, let alone a 22 year old. It reminds me a lot of when the selectors took a big punt on another special talent in Micheal Clarke, who at the time of his debut averaged not much more than 30 in first class cricket, but cracked an amazing 150 on debut against India.
Jack Russell
Roar Guru
There are probably more Pakistanis in the UAE. Regardless the tests will probably be played in front of crowds in the hundreds.
bearfax
Guest
My apologies Ronan. You are quite correct. I miscalculated. He made 37.9 average in the Shield and yes that is an improvement. Mind you he still is averaging only 28.5 at first class level while same age Maddinson is averaging 36.5, Silk 38.4 and even Head, 2 years younger is averaging 29.1. OK he had a good season but you have often implied one season a test player does not make. I've always been one not heavily impressed by one or two big scores when the average isnt there to back it up. But as I said Mitch is young and has a long development period. I also think he's test material. But whereas I think Maxwell deserves another shot within the next 6 months, I dont think Marsh does, other than as I indicated as a taste. I think Maxwell at this stage is a far more accomplished batsman at first class level
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Interestingly, of the five spinners competing to take Ajmal's spot two of them also have questions over their action: http://www.espncricinfo.com/pakistan/content/story/779729.html
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
It will be a long, long time before any other national team agrees to tour Pakistan. It is an incredibly dangerous place for any visitors, let alone high-profile ones.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Bearfax I don't know where you got those stats from, Mitch Marsh last Shield season scored 493 runs at 38. Factoring in his matches for Aus A, he has made 718 runs at 48 from his last 11 first-class matches. That is the significant development I'm referring to.
bearfax
Guest
Just a shame Pakistan is such a mess. That's where it should be played. Hopefully their government will resolve issues in that country so the Pakies can again be a proud test nation with a strong audience backing.
bearfax
Guest
Look Mitch Marsh has loads of talent...no question. But Tom, I think the next generation of test stars is about to rise and there will be a number of batsmen and some all rounders hustling for a test spot. I suspect we will see some interesting young batsmen on the rise this coming and next Shield season. Australia's dearth of batting talent to follow the stars of the nineties and early naughties is I suspect about to end. Look out for some big movers. Mitch needs to get that batting consistency working for him to ensure him a test spot.
bearfax
Guest
Ronan I'm yet to be taken by young Marsh's batting. There are elements of his brother there that worry me a little. He's certainly got the goods as a bowler, but I dont think his batting has developed as well as you seem to be implying. As mentioned his last Shield season earned him an average with the bat of 32.87. Not what I would call even a top of the line first class batsman yet. Maddinson averaged in last Shield season around 35 and we thought he had a disappointing season. Silk is averaging over 38. And yet these guys are all the same age. His double century against India A was impressive but that is his second century in 66 innings. Compare Maddinsons' 5 in 71 innings and Silk's impressive 4 in 22 innings and you begin to see Marsh's performances in perspective. I think Mitch Marsh will be a test all rounder but I'd say not for at least another 2 years in my opinion. Shaun Marsh has the habit of playing these flamboyant and high scoring innings and the selectors were taken by one or two such efforts. Yet those scores are mixed in with a large number of failures. Mitch's performances are at this stage similar. He needs consistency before I think he's a No 6 batsman. His advantage over his brother is that he has age on his side and years of development. And he's a good bowler so he looks probable for an all rounder test spot when Watson calls it a day. But not today.
Tom from Perth
Roar Rookie
I suppose he'll be batting pretty high for WA too. Our batting stocks look pretty thin (again) this year. A season consistently coming in at 4/5 will really show us where he's at I think.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
It could well hinder Marsh's development if he is blooded in Tests too early. I am a huge fan of him and think he has the ability to be a superstar in all formats for Australia. He has taken significant strides as an FC batsman in the past 12 months and he should be left in the Shield to try to continue this encouraging form trajectory. Ideally he should get at at a minimum one more full Shield season - and perhaps 2-3 - before being introduced in Tests. The Test side is in a good state at the moment, there is no need for hasty decisions on players.
bearfax
Guest
Ronan, I suspect some are falling for the old ODI trick of selecting for test matches because of good one day performances. Though I think Mitch Marsh has a lot of potential I think in any first class matches he has a long way to go especially in his batting before I would be selecting him for a test series, other than giving him a taste of what its like. Sure he's developing into a fine first class bowler and potential test player and if he is considered deserving of an 8-11 position, I could understand to a degree. But becoming enamoured by his ODI batting is the same mistake as we had with Bailey, Shaun Marsh and potentially, the way people are talking about Finch. Have we not learned its a different form of cricket and batting. To get it into perspective Mitch Marsh is averaging 28.51 at first class level. Some are saying that his averages are weighed down because he started so young. Maybe to a degree that's correct. But his average for his last Shield season was only 32.87. Maxwell averages 41.64 at first class level and averaged 45.64 in his last Shield season. I'll grant that Marsh is a much better bowler than Maxwell, but a kid with a batting average of less than 30 and no major improvements at first class level in batting at this stage, is not what you want for a No 6 position. Watson is a fine bowler, but he also averages over 40 in first class batting. That's why we have him as a test all rounder. Mitch has a way to go before he has reached that level. Sorry, but if I was selecting, other than as a tasting for the kid, there is no way I would select Mitch Marsh for a test side at this stage.
ak
Roar Guru
But why have the tests in UAE? It would be better if they play in a test playimg country. Maybe Bangladesh.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Maxwell is still a better chance of playing than Marsh I reckon but I have a feeling neither will be in the lineup for the first Test unless someone is out injured.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
There were suggestions that the deck for the first Test could be quite firm but I'd be shocked if that was the case. Surely Pakistan will want a pitch that allows them to exploit Australia's weakness against spin.
Armchair Expert
Guest
Maxwell has 2 hopes of playing now that Ajmal's out, he should make a good 12th man though.
Broken-hearted Toy
Guest
You would hope that Doolan is given more of a chance. He's not had a chance to play in Aus yet.