It was legendary New York Yankees catcher Yogi Berra who said: “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
This is as true in the modern AFL landscape as anywhere; predicting the ebbs and flows of Australia’s game is a treacherous pursuit.
So it is with more than a little trepidation that I brazenly declare: the Brisbane Lions will follow in the footsteps of Port Adelaide and be the next AFL rags-to-riches story.
When discussing teams on the improve, the conversation is dominated by the expansion clubs.
Gold Coast this year showed glimpses of what in short order will be one the most potent midfields in the competition, while the wealth of top-shelf talent at Greater Western Sydney makes their rise seem inevitable.
Others point to the Western Bulldogs who, as breakout teams go, have looked the side most likely for several years now.
But few mention the Brisbane Lions in the same breath, and admittedly it’s not hard to see why. The Lions have been woeful in recent times, with dramas both on and off the field.
Following the retirement of Ash McGrath, there is now no member of the Lions’ famous triple premiership team who still laces up the boots each week. Sure, no-one could have expected a repeat of that famous era, but the Lions’ proud roar has since softened to barely a whimper, the club having fronted just a solitary finals series since 2004, and finished no higher than 12th since 2009.
Behind the scenes, things have arguably been worse. After a promising start to his coaching tenure, Michael Voss quickly found himself embroiled in dramas off the field to complement those on it. The Brendan Fevola fiasco, years of unrest at board level, and last year, a staggering exodus of young talent. Ultimately the favourite son cum coach was unceremoniously ousted mid-season 2013.
This once proud club lay teetering on the brink of oblivion. Some pundits have predicted Gold Coast will steal Brisbane’s thunder, and the Lions will slowly fade into insignificance.
The naysayers are not yet wrong, but they soon will be.
Greater footy minds than myself will tell you time and again that the two most important people at your club are the senior coach and the CEO. Enter Swanny and Leppa.
Greg Swann is all class. Together with Eddie McGuire, Swann built Collingwood from the ground up in the early 2000s, as they pushed into two grand finals within his first four years at the helm, and reclaimed their place among the powerhouse clubs in the league. At Carlton, Swann was instrumental in signing Chris Judd and bringing in Mick Malthouse.
Sure, parading a live lion around a footy field is probably going a little too far, but the fact that Swanny and his staff are thinking outside the box should excited fans of the club. Brisbane could ask for no better CEO; the man knows how to lead.
And Justin Leppitsch? With what he’s done in just 12 months, it’s no stretch to say that Leppa would not be far back in calculations for coach of the year. He’s calm and measured, and has already shown an ability to inspire his players and win games.
After conceding eight of their first nine, Leppitsch dragged his team back into line to finish with seven wins, including stirring victories over Collingwood, North, and Gold Coast.
But let’s be frank. Footy departments don’t win flags, players do. So how’s the list looking?
Despite last year’s mass talent departure, the blokes Brisbane brought in might already have surpassed their collective output. James Aish, Darcy Gardiner, and rising star winner Lewis Taylor have exceeded all expectations in their first year.
But that’s just the kids. Tom Rockliff, 24, Pearce Hanley, 25, and Dayne Zorko, 25, are bona fide stars with their best years ahead. Another two of their top six – Daniel Rich and Matthew Leuenberger – sat out the best part of the season, but will slot straight back in. And the latter’s absence made way for big Stefan Martin to not just emerge, but tear the competition to shreds with his mix of excellent bodywork and even better follow up work.
Oh, and let’s not forget the elephant in the room: Dayne Beams. Even in the unlikely scenario that the silky Collingwood star doesn’t join Brisbane, the Lions have been clear that their war-chest of salary cap space, said to be up to $1.5 million, will be spent on nothing less than A-grade talent. Quality players who will come in and have an immediate impact.
It’s only a matter of time before they land a big fish, or maybe two.
Now with all of the above said, I am still a realist. Brisbane is not a heartland footy town like Adelaide, there is no shiny new oval to entice the members back to games, and David Koch has no twin in Queensland. Luck, fate, and the footy gods will need to play their part as well.
Nevertheless, the tide is turning, and the Brisbane renaissance looms. The Gold Coast rivalry is heating up and beginning to drag supporters back, family Beams may yet be reunited, and the Fitzroy faithful still bleed red, blue and gold.
Make no mistake, the Lions’ mighty roar will once again echo across the hallowed turf of the Gabba. Brisbane are coming.
Michael
Roar Rookie
In truth I actually submitted it with the worded "turned", the editors replaced it with "cum".
Mister Football
Roar Guru
Not a bad call - I think it's fair to say that the Lions have caught up to my team - we continue to battle a dearth of key forwards/backs.
Mister Football
Roar Guru
Incredible to think that Beams might be joining his brother at the Lions, both local products.
Richard
Guest
Ultimately the favourite son cum coach was unceremoniously ousted mid-season 2013. Anything wrong with the sentence? funny
Michael
Roar Rookie
I think this guy's just stirring the pot, playing devil's advocate. Aren't you San?
TomC
Roar Guru
Obvious problems in the fowardline, but I reckon their backline stacks up well against most. Merrett might get moved on, but I doubt they'd trade Patfull unless they got a genuinely good deal. Gardiner and Clarke are already holding down key defensive positions, McStay and Bourke look promising.
The Pedge
Guest
Wowsers sam. Cheers for dampening the mood. The lions midfield is looking like it will be pretty potent don't you think? To put the lions marginally in front of St Kilda and Melbourne is a ridiculous!
San Hedrin
Guest
Well argued but what you have not considered is the 'renaissance' of other teams at the same as the Lions are aiming to feature. I think the Lions are a long way from catching the expansion sides, North, Port, Essendon and even Collingwood who all feature young talent rich lists ready to dominate the next decade. They still have gaping holes in key position stocks at either end of the ground and are expected to lose the experienced Merrett and Patful. Any Beams trade, as likely as it may be, will not be without a pick and a player. The Pies are playing hardball and have made it very clear that they hold the high ground and have no reason to give Beams up for 'unders'. The Lions lost pretty much an entire drafts worth of young players last year which many blamed on culture.While Swann and Leppa have patched these holes, the fact remains the club is currently at rock bottom and are only marginally ahead of Melbourne and St Kilda in list quality. I can't see the Lions being serious contenders until at least 2020 once this list has turned over and the young kids have a few more seasons experience. And by then, who knows?
TomC
Roar Guru
FWIW, Leppitch told the AGM this year that he didn't rate any of the forwards in this year's draft ahead of the young forwards currently on the Lions' list. Might have been puffery, but it would be a strange thing to say if they were planning to take McCartin or Wright.
mattatooski
Guest
Big strong full forwards that can kick true are few and far between. And they are desperately needed in order for the Lions to become a powerhouse again. In their premiership years they had 3, Brown Lynch and Bradshaw. At the moment they have half a one being Close, but for whatever reason he has not quite got there despite his size. And if they give up their pick 4 for Beams, They will miss out on a big bopper. The way their list sits now, is Beams worth more than one of the best junior full forwards?
Michael
Roar Rookie
Collingwood aren't going to hold Beams back against his will, but surely you can understand that if there's even a slight chance of keeping him they will fight tooth and nail for it. And indeed if he must leave, they will fight to get the absolute best compensation possible. After all, he is (a) their 3rd best player (after Pendles and Cloke), (b) a young man with his best footy ahead of him, and (c) still under contract. The club are not being unreasonable.
Andy_Roo
Roar Guru
It would be great to see both the Lions and the Suns enter a successful period together. I can see plenty of positives for the Lions and the Suns rise is almost as certain as the sun rising each day. A rivalry between the two needs to be built on the basis of quality football from both teams. It can't be built just by saying the word 'rivalry'. I can see that quality football from both teams in the next year or two.
judy morris
Guest
Its great to finally see something positive written by everyone about the Lions. People ask me how can I follow a team 2 states away which I hardly see in Melbourne.They think I'm nuts [maybe ] .I think you'll find all past Fitzroy supporters still follow the Lions regardless Older supporters grew up with this team and they will never change..The young bunch we have playing now are exciting to watch ,and given time to develop they will be great.I guess the hard part is the wait for fans. Maybe next year we'll see them more often in Melbourne.Collingwood have always been rivals of Fitzroy and they would hate to see one of their players requesting to join the Lions.On the other hand they wouldn't think twice about grabbing one of ours.I hope Beams gets his way.Why would you want to keep a player who doesn't want to play for the club whatever the reasons?????
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
I think they definitely are on the rise. I think its key forwards they need most improvement in. Now Brown is gone they need a BIG (imposing) forward. Problem i JB, despite his best efforts, was fighting against the inevitable: Age. This year too was the huge number of injuries they had. Actually the equal in terms of the calibre of their players as to what the Hawks had year. Just Lions were never in contention so the media didn't care. They need to be busy this trade period. I hate seeing teams in the down where Melbourne have been in past seasons. No club should have to go there. St Kidla are on their way their if they don't do something soon.
Paul D
Roar Guru
Agreed with the general sentiment we're a few years off challenging the best teams. Certainly things look brighter now than they did only a year or two ago, when we were circling the drain.
TomC
Roar Guru
Yep. Look at the Doggies in 2009. Terrible forwardline, still got within a couple of kicks of the grand final. The problem for the Lions is that they'll still have too many kids with <50 games running around, so they'll get exposed in other areas a little too often, at least in 2015.
Michael
Roar Rookie
A few people have mentioned their lack of key position players, which I think is true in part, and is probably the biggest hole in my arguments. Until that is rectified they won't win a flag, but the elite midfield they will have already by next year means they will likely push up the ladder. Great midfields go a hell of a long way to winning games.
The Pedge
Guest
Oh trust me mate. When the lions were flying there were plenty of expats who jumped on the bandwagon. My mates dad tells me now how much of a one eyed hawks supporter he is. I vividly remember him with a lions family membership, scarf and hat back in the early 00's though haha.
slane
Guest
Cheets Pedge! I was saying that I doubt many Victorians would change teams just because they move up North. You can cgange a lot of things but not your team!
Radelaide
Guest
I hope it does turn for them, they seem to have responded to Leppa well and that is important in being a good coach. Now they need some smart recruiting.