I’ll put my neck on the line if you join me Roarers. A week out from the World Cup let’s predict which teams will shine, which will flop, who will dominate with bat and ball and which sides and players will harm their reputation.
If you disagree with one, or all, of my selections then make sure to nominate your own choice. Don’t lob grenades while perched on the fence.
World Cup winners: Australia
Plenty of pundits and fans are tipping South Africa to finally overcome their World Cup hoodoo. Despite uncertainty over leadership and a misfiring middle order, Australia have been a juggernaut this summer.
They have won 11 of their past 12 completed ODIs including a 3-0 rout against the talented Pakistan in the UAE, then a lopsided 4-1 result against South Africa at home, followed by a 4-0 record in the tri-series against strong teams India and England.
They have an intimidating pace battery, an enviable record of making 300-plus scores, an even better record of chasing 250-plus totals and their fielding is back to being on par with any team in the world.
Being hosts will be a help not a hindrance to the Aussies, who will relish familiar conditions rather than wilting under the spotlight.
Final: Australia vs New Zealand
If the co-hosts can avoid a semi-final showdown, what a decider this would be. Despite being traditional cross-Tasman rivals, Australia and New Zealand have been starved of cricket opposed to each other in recent years making it difficult to accurately compare the two sides.
Australia are the world’s in-form side, while over the past 12 months New Zealand cricket has experienced its most purple of patches in more than a decade.
The Kiwis have elite batsmen in Kane Williamson, Brendon McCullum and Ross Taylor, two of the game’s most devastating middle-to-late order hitters in Corey Anderson and Luke Ronchi, and admirable depth in their bowling stocks.
Smokies: England
The way in which they ended the tri-series was woeful, capitulating against Australia on a lively WACA deck. England’s poor performance in the final should not, however, distract from the gains they made after the belated but nonetheless brave decision to ditch former skipper Alastair Cook.
Weighed down by conservative and outdated ODI tactics, England’s side never threatened to reach its potential under Cook. When they had three old-school accumulators in their top four in Cook, Ian Bell and Joe Root, England seemed content to make middling scores of between 250 and 280. The game had moved beyond that however with the elite sides consistently setting totals of well above 300 and feeling little pressure in chasing similarly large scores.
With Moeen Ali providing greater dynamism at the top of the order and James Taylor finally getting a deserved crack in coloured clothing, England’s batting looks more powerful. In Australian conditions, they also have the attack to potentially skittle opponents.
Veteran paceman James Anderson is in fine fettle, while hugely promising but regularly disappointing beanpole Steven Finn appears to be locating some confidence. If Stuart Broad builds momentum alongside that pair then England’s attack will be truly fearsome.
Most wickets: Mitchell Starc
Starc’s potency in the tri-series seemed to catch some cricket observers by surprise. The reality is that ever since he first flung the white ball for Australia Starc has looked assured in the ODI format.
Batting has improved in many ways in the modern game yet players still struggle to counter the swinging ball. When the Kookaburra is hooping late at 145 kilometres an hour out of the hand of a 196 centimetre left armer, the challenge is insurmountable for some. Starc’s ability to rip through top orders makes him arguably Australia’s most valuable tool.
Most runs: Aaron Finch
Finch, inexplicably, continues to get criticism from many Australian fans some who even bizarrely suggest he shouldn’t be in Australia’s ODI side. Yet he has been Australia’s most effective batsman since the start of last year.
The Victorian is not an aesthetically-pleasing player in the mold of Hashim Amla or Kane Williamson, both of whom are strong contenders for this title. Finch is highly effective though, and over the past 12 months has matured from a one-paced blaster into a well-rounded opener capable of adapting his innings to the team’s needs. Over his past 23 ODIs, he has made 933 runs at an average of 43, including four centuries and score of 96.
Finch, now often happy to play second fiddle to belligerent opening partner David Warner, looks set for a massive World Cup.
Biggest flop (player): Rohit Sharma
Hand him a pitch which is the identical twin of a Mumbai expressway and Rohit scores double tons for fun. Offer the opposition pace bowlers some assistance and a different tale is told. At home, where the pitches are so friendly to batting it has become ridiculous, Rohit averages 66. In away matches, where bowlers at least occasionally are provided aid by the decks, his average is just 29.
Rohit started the tri-series in wonderful touch with an elegant hundred against Australia. I’m still not sold on him however. With India’s misfiring batting now relying so heavily on he and Virat Kohli, I’m not convinced Rohit can flourish against the robust pace attacks of Australia, South Africa, England and New Zealand.
Biggest flop (team): India
Even after they laboured through the four-Test series against Australia in spite of the most favourable pitches possible, India remained among the favourites for the World Cup in many people’s views. When they backed that up by floundering in the tri-series on pitches which actually resembled normal Australian conditions their stocks plummeted.
Rightly so. India are a mess right now. Their attack is weak and ill-suited to Australian decks and their batting, formerly a trump card, has become a shambles. India have no idea what their best top six is and have a slew of batsmen who clearly don’t like the pace and bounce of Australian pitches.
Harvey Wilson
Roar Rookie
Was this written before Rohit scored 150 a few days ago? One could say the biggest flop will be Watson, but then what is considered flopping from already playing below par.
Riccardo
Guest
World Cup winners: South Africa Final: Proteas vs Australia Smokies: Sri Lanka Most wickets: Steyn Most runs: Williamson Biggest flop (player): The Show Biggest flop (team): India
Riccardo
Guest
Your money would be safer on Williamson Nudge. He is the most prolific scorer this year so far...
13th Man
Guest
Luckily for all of us brayshaw isn't commentating in the world cup.
Realist 1975
Guest
Gents, thanks for clearing this up for me. Thanks.
Suzy Poison
Guest
Australia are clear and outright favourites. They top the rankings, and the tournament is in their back yard. Not only that the bookies have installed them as favourites. South Africa are not even in the top two in the One day rankings. And when it comes to the odds, the Bookies have South Africa as second favourites. I think the perception of South Africa potentially doing well, comes from their test ranking. I think the real problem with South Africa is the lack of depth. I notice apart from one player, the 50 overs team is identical to the test team. Australia have so many more players to choose from. I get the feeling that South Africa is one injury away from a quarter final exit. I am South African and I find it a bit weird that South Africa are mentioned as possible One Day tournament winners. I find most Australian Cricket fans don’t get just how small, cricket is, as a game in South Africa. That’s why most of the time, the stadiums are empty when touring teams play over there. In South Africa, it’s Soccer first, Rugby second and Cricket a distant third. Perhaps it’s best to compare South African cricket with Australia Rugby Union. Australian Rugby Union, is probably behind, Cricket, AFL and League. I couldn’t believe the games was only played in a few states when I got here, yet those little Aussie battlers have consistently punched above their weight and even won two World Cups. World Cup Winners: Australia Australia versus New Zealand Final. Smokies: Sri Lanka or Windies (both raise their game for WC’s) Most wickets: Mitchell Starc Most Runs: Steve Smith Biggest Flop (player) Dale Steyn Biggest flop (team) India (apologies India, but you just no quality bowlers right now)
OutaHere
Guest
Australia to repeat the success of 1999 when they won both the cricket and rugby world cups.
Don Freo
Guest
I think we can expect this inconsistency from NZ. They (you?) might be beginning to believe their own PR.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
Yeah that's not a good form indicator. But I wouldn't be looking too much into, Zimbabwe in a game that means absolutely squat, probably not the best motivator! I guess still pretty confident in the home ground advantage and incredible recent home record they be amongst when it counts. McCullum is due to hit some runs again, Guptill seems to have come good as he was under the pump, Williamson been in absolute purple patch and Taylor was showing improvement.
Suneer Chowdhary
Roar Guru
In fact, going a step further, by the looks of things, if Australia and South Africa finish in the top two in their respective groups, they will not play each other till the final - if they get there obviously.
Renegade
Roar Guru
Suneer is right on this one Realist. The courier mail is simply highlighting that regardless of finishing position the quarter finals involving (insert team name) will be played at this venue. The seedings will still decide who plays who and if Aus and SAF top their respective pools - they cannot meet until the final.
Don Freo
Guest
They are really putting it to Zimbabwe now. Their first 5 batsmen all out in single figures. Guptill is the only one making runs. Wouldn't be wanting to put many eggs into that basket.
SP
Guest
SA v OZ final - the 2 best teams by a long way. Biggest flop will be Kohli Agree that England are smokies along with Pakistan. NZ are being over rated by many. They are lucky they play all their group matches on the tiny grounds in NZ. They'd get annihilated by by Steyn, Morkel, Johnson and co at the Gabba and/or WACA.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
I think New Zealand are primed for a huge World Cup. I think Australia are going to struggle. South Africa New Zealand Final for me. Highest Runscorer with be Sangakara Biggest Flop will be Aaron Finch. Biggest Flop of a Team will be Ireland. Having made the quarter finals last year will struggle to beat other Minor Countries.
Paul Giles
Guest
Thanks Suneer, So my guess is New Zealand top group A and play the West Indies at Eden Park and Australia will finish second and play Pakistan at the Adelaide Oval. Assuming both New Zealand and Australia win their quarter finals, they will play Australia in New Zealand in the semi final as they finish higher in the group. The other semi could be South Africa vs England at the S.C.G.
That!s wishful thinking, not to be confused with confidence ;)
Suneer Chowdhary
Roar Guru
http://www.icc-cricket.com/cricket-world-cup/news/2015/media-releases/84599/icc-announces-venue-allocation-criteria-for-icc-cricket-world-cup-2015-quarter-finals Check the draw etc from the official site above. Not sure what the courier mail says but how it will work is that a1 plays b4, a2 plays b3, a3 plays b2 and a4 plays b1 in the four quarter finals. Here a1, a2, a3, a4, b1, b2, b3 and b4 are the group standings at the end of the group stage of the tourney. The winner of a1-b4 match takes on a2-b3 winner and the other two winners play each other. So Australia and South Africa can play each other in the final in many realistic ways, they just do not have to fall in the same half of the quarter final draw as mentioned above at the end of the league stage.
Suneer Chowdhary
Roar Guru
Hi Paul, The format is beautifully explained here http://www.icc-cricket.com/cricket-world-cup/news/2015/media-releases/84599/icc-announces-venue-allocation-criteria-for-icc-cricket-world-cup-2015-quarter-finals Essentially, A1 plays B4, A2 plays B3, A3 plays B2 and A4 plays B1 in the four quarter-finals where A1, A2, A3 and so on are group stage platings at the end of the group stage (and not predecided seedings). The winner of the first quarter final from above will play the winner of the second quarter final, the winner of the third qf plays the winner of the fourth qf, i.e. The winner of A1-B4 game plays the winner of the A2-B3 game and the other two winners will play each other.
Bobbo7
Guest
Agree but I don't think SA were anywhere near their best in that series. Du Plesis, De Kock had poor series, Amla didn't do much and Dumminy missing. I guess the point was that while Australia are favourites I don't think they are overwhelming favourites. It is not been beyond the realms of possibility that England could beat them on Saturday. If Bell made runs up front and Butler tees off you just never know. SL could also beat NZ on Saturday too? The minnows aside, anyone can win an ODI if things go their way. Back in the day you just knew that one or two of Hayden, Gilchrst, Ponting, Martin, Beven etc would make runs. The team today will blast any team away if Finch and Warner fire but that is no sure thing and I just feel this side is far more susceptible to bad days with the bat.
Paul Giles
Guest
Does anyone know how the semi finals work? My quarter finals predictions are England (3rd) vs India (2nd) at M.C.G, South Africa (1st) vs Sri Lanka (4th) at the S.C.G, Australia (1st or 2nd) vs West Indies (4th) / Pakistan (3rd) at Adelaide Oval and New Zealand (1st or 2nd) vs West Indies (4th) or Pakistan (3rd) at Eden Park. If England, South Africa, Australia and New Zealand win their quarter final matches, there is 3 teams from group A and 1 team from group B progressing to the semi finals. The ICC website does not mention how the semis will be determined.