With the season just a few sleeps away, it is time to put in your premiership tips. I’m going past all of the heavyweight teams who have either won or at least contested grand finals in recent years and tipping Penrith to win the premiership.
I don’t doubt a few other teams, including South Sydney, Sydney Roosters, Canterbury, North Queensland and Brisbane, as genuine contenders, but I don’t doubt Panthers coach Ivan Cleary and the makeup of his side, either.
The thing I keep going back to is the fact Penrith almost made the grand final last year despite losing four important players, including their halfback and captain Peter Wallace, as the regular season wore on. The others were Tyrone Peachey, Elijah Taylor and Bryce Cartwright.
All four were having terrific seasons when they got hurt, but being without them didn’t stop the Panthers from beating the Roosters 19-18 in the elimination final and then being in the game right until the end before losing 18-12 to Canterbury in the preliminary finals.
Why? Good-quality depth was one reason. The season before, the Panthers crumbled in the latter rounds because of injury.
They didn’t have the depth to cover on that occasion, so they made sure they had it last year by shopping smartly in the off-season.
But it’s one thing having a good roster. It’s not going to take you to the top unless you’ve got character, belief and a very good coach who can get a team to play to a style that gives that particular line-up its best chance of winning consistently.
I rate Cleary very highly as a coach. He reminds me of Wayne Bennett, the way he carries himself. He rarely gets flustered and he treats winning the same as he treats losing – he doesn’t get carried away with the former and he doesn’t get too down about the latter.
He knows there are going to be bad days to go with the good and he concentrates on the big picture.
That may sound like the obvious approach to take, but when you see the extreme reactions of some coaches to the ups and downs that come with what is for many a roller-coaster ride through the season, you realise the obvious approach is not automatically adopted by everyone.
The ones who best maintain that balance are the ones who have the utmost confidence in their structures and processes and an unshakeable belief that what they are doing each day is right.
The team is an extension of the coach. If the players see that the coach is calm and unflappable, and not showing any uncertainty when the plan is put under pressure, then they are calm and unflappable – as calm and unflappable as you can be on the field when you’re in the heat of battle for 80 minutes, anyway.
The key is that they don’t lose faith. You’re not going to win every game, and sometimes you might even lose badly, but you continue to believe. You don’t start second-guessing.
Last season is all the proof the Panthers need that Cleary knows exactly what he is doing.
Cleary got the Warriors to the grand final in 2011 after they had been eliminated in the first week of the finals under his coaching the year before.
During their existence, the Warriors have surely been the most frustrating of teams to coach, because of their inconsistency and failure, more often than not, to reach their potential.
But Cleary never appeared to lose his cool there.
There have been plenty of coaches the Warriors haven’t responded to. Cleary is among the minority to whom they did.
The Panthers have responded to him as well.
I will be stunned if Cleary finishes his coaching career without winning a premiership – probably multiple premierships. I just think he’s too good not to. I don’t think he needs a particular advantage – just even luck.
It may happen this year, it may not, but I’m convinced it will happen eventually.
What I think about Penrith is that they’re good enough to take that extra step now, under Cleary’s direction.
A few other teams are good enough to take that extra step as well, or go back-to-back in the case of the Rabbitohs, but you can’t tip them all and I’m sure the Panthers will give me a very good sight.
mike 80
Guest
I think penrith will have a great year and think they will make the g.f but i feel its the dogs year in 15.in saying that i think they will win it in 16 when merrir joins the club.
Bronco Juggernaut
Guest
The commentator you were talking abut in your previous comment (it didn't let me reply to it) Is Mathew Thompson. He also does the Intrust Super Cup.
Sleiman Azizi
Roar Guru
I know it sounds strange to say this but last year Penrith looked like a football team.
Sleiman Azizi
Roar Guru
lol
Albo
Guest
Yes Luke ! Barring injury, they have a pretty good chance ! However, they will have some injuries, and you will need to hope and pray it doesn't hit their halves ! Because they have absolutely nothing in the lower grades to back up Wallace & Soward in those positions,, and like every team in the comp the halves are always the differentiators when the big games come around !
George
Guest
if there is such a word as indifferentist, he is not. He could be slightly optomistic though.
Kirk
Guest
and some halves who will service their outside backs.
Epiquin
Roar Guru
Not sure what you're getting at Jay. Api as proven himself to be a great player. When he filled in for Luke during the season, some were saying Luke might have to earn his spot back. He played with the confidence of a far more experienced player by taking on the line and directing play. When he filled in during the GF he stepped up like the pressure was nothing. I think he has both proven ability AND the potential to be a great hooker if he can nail a starting spot.
Jay C
Roar Guru
There are about 20 players I would call amazing and Api is not one of them. Full of potential agreed. But there are too many people confusing potential with runs on the board. Your local physiotherapy office is full of ex players that were full of potential.
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
Jay, Thats 12th worst. What they did well tho was protect their line and did not turn missed tackles into tries.
Epiquin
Guest
Woah, woah, woah... Api may have been a fill-in but he has a lot more than just 'potential.' He's an amazing player. A lot of talent.
JOHNY BULLDOG
Guest
Oh Jay C,you do it for me evertime-LOL!
The Barry
Roar Guru
Is this an example of your 'facts'?
Jay C
Roar Guru
If Whare is the best centre in the world I will eat my hat. You can't take a snapshot of 5 or 6 games and claim greatness. Repeat it this year and Segeyaro will be a top class hooker. Api was a fill in with not much besides potential. Peachey is tremendous? Inside raps? There are too many ifs here for me. Like I said it is a good squad, top 4 with a shot at the title. Was just proving you can argue with the points raised.
Jay C
Roar Guru
I wish I did also 3 Hats. But sometimes my mouth is bigger than my brain
Sleiman Azizi
Roar Guru
I would agree with this but only to a point. The game was still in the balance with 9 minutes to go, not 20 minutes. The Bulldogs had enough scoring chances but they kept fumbling the ball on the wrong play. You can't win any game playing like that, let alone a Grand Final. The Bulldogs also had the Rabbitohs measure in defence for 71 minutes too but then they cracked and the Souths, who you could see, had points in them, let loose. Like I said, a great game. I wonder what would have happened had Glebe been there instead....
3 Hats
Guest
You can't blame injury's, you have to rise above adversity to become a true champion. Adam Reynolds 2012 for example! You have an opportunity, the players must take them when available. Don't blame 1 or 2 injury's, if your not 100% fit then DON'T take the field. Simple!
Alex L
Roar Rookie
That would depend on if it's least or most.
Roy
Guest
Penrith won't be winning the comp. The winner will come from the Roosters or Canterbury but my tip is the Roosters, they are the best team.
3 Hats
Guest
I agree, last year at the beginning I was a tad concerned Souths had a tough draw but with 6 weeks to go and ALL of the experts saying it makes you battle harden for the semis. They were correct.