Whose spot will the Lions take in the top eight?

When the AFL’s 2015 schedule came out, the annual think pieces seemed to anoint Richmond, Collingwood and West Coast as the winners (Collingwood are always the winners, aren’t they?), and Port Adelaide and Geelong as the losers.

That was my meta-take, adjusting for finishing position, anyway.

As an aside, my contribution to this tradition was a look at the impact of the difference between the numbers of days off a team has relative to its opponents.

The year before last, the same columns said it was Geelong and Carlton had the worst of it, with Collingwood (of course) and Adelaide getting favourable treatment.

Forgive me for getting all 30 for 30, but what if I told you the think pieces were wrong, and will probably be wrong again this year? It was, in fact, Brisbane who had the toughest draw in 2014. In fact, Brisbane’s draw was on average more than a goal a week tougher than the hypothetical average draw in season 2014.

Where did I pluck that number from? Using a series of matrix equations based on the margins of all 198 games played, set to the schedule as it played out, with 18 dependent variables – one for each team – that are designed to meet the condition that the sum of the matrix is zero. This has the effect of “rating” each team based on its performance against other teams, and the schedule.

Mhm. You can read about the basis for my system here if you’d like.

Anyway the method probably doesn’t matter too much to you. All told, this would suggest Brisbane are primed for a better season this year, because this year’s collective fingers-in-the-wind think the Lions have a pretty amenable draw: only three six-day breaks, only one Nullarbor trek, only one double up against a preliminary finalist (North Melbourne).

But it’s not just the draw that’s broken right for them. The front office at Lions HQ had a very deliberate strategy this offseason, and executed well. Brisbane haven’t exactly had the best of success in keeping their draft picks in recent years. It’s no surprise that new CEO Greg Swann’s first order of business was switching the Lions’ player acquisition strategy.

They traded for former Geelong runner Allen Christensen and enigmatic Pie Dayne Beams, and signing New Era aficionado (seriously, check out his Instagram) Mitch Robinson to complement a young midfield group.

They didn’t lose heaps the other way, with a waning champion Jonathan Brown, a pair of angry pants in Brent Moloney and Ash McGrath and youngster Jack Crisp making way. Joel Patful was moved to GWS to help enable the Christensen trade – the two were effectively a direct swap.

The first three would’ve opened up a pretty big chunk of the Lions’ salary cap, affording them the opportunity to chase talent.

Pick five in the draft was leveraged – and ended up being used by the Pies to select forward-mid prospect Jordan De Goey. Now that’s not to say Brisbane would’ve used their pick on this guy, but if you subscribe to Best Player Available Theory, De Goey would not have been an efficient selection for the Lions. If Brisbane have an adequate supply of anything in their playing ranks, it’s forward-mids.

The sheen has faded a little in the first months of 2015, following a few injuries that’ll test this newfound depth. None were more critical than Pearce Hanley’s seemingly significant hip complaint. He gave Brisbane a huge boost last year; tidying up his disposal efficiency, playing on the inside more, and being responsible for almost one in ten Brisbane inside 50 entries.

Christensen and Beams were already walk up starts, but are even more important now following the injuries. They’ll add immediately to Brisbane’s contingent of mid sized players – both in the middle and up forward – while the Lions will also get 2008 Rising Star, left-footed maestro and proud Western Australian (hello, Lathlain) Daniel Rich, back at something resembling full fitness for Round 1, following a Round 2 knee injury.

And so it goes, Brisbane will rise up the ladder this season, and might even be pushing for a berth in the eight if things break right for them. I reckon I’ve read more pieces on Brisbane’s prospects than most other teams combined over the past couple of months.

This seems predicated on two things.

One is the offseason, but the other is the way Brisbane ended up playing under the AFL’s next favourite son knifing candidate, Justin Leppitsch.

Here’s three key statistical splits through three phases; Round 1 through 20 of 2013 pre-Michael Voss career change (green), Round 1 through 9 under Leppitsch (blue), and Round 11 through 23 under Leppitsch (red):

There was a clear shift in game plan under Leppitsch in the second half of 2014. Under Voss, tough, contested football was the goal; Brisbane Lions games were around seven per cent more “contested” than the AFL average in 2013.

When the Lions managed to get the ball on the outside, they were turning it over at an above average rate, while the two-way effort of the team was questionable – they gave up a staggering 37 running bounces against St Kilda in Voss’ penultimate game.

The figures show Brisbane are pursuing the Hawthorn-Essendon model of outside running, uncontested marks and careful ball movement. Brisbane went from being a net minus on field marks (marks outside of forward 50) and a clear net minus on uncontested possession differential to plus plus.

Brisbane’s clanger rate dropped from 15 per cent above average in the first half of 2014 to merely average in the second half.

Not being a member of his coaching staff, I can’t say for certain whether Leppitsch’s shift was driven by the team’s abysmal play in the first nine weeks of the year (one win, by three points, against the eventual wooden spooners, in another country), or was part of a gradual transition – but what is clear is that the team was looking more and more comfortable with the plan as the season progressed.

You would expect this to continue, particularly following the addition of Christensen and Beams.

So should we all jump on the bandwagon? Put it this way, I think their second half of the year showed they’ve got what it takes to be a team on the cusp of the eight. Noncommittal enough for you? You can put my hesitation down to another predictive stat I’ve espoused in the past: Pythagorean expected wins.

Again, if you’re into the detail you can go and read about it here. According to the formula, Brisbane flattered themselves to seven wins: their offensive and defensive output was only good for between four and five wins last year. Actually, between three and four wins, with Brisbane banking an extra win because of their performance in close games last year (four from six games within two goals).

As we’ve shown, though, Brisbane’s 2014 was a tale of two seasons. So what happens if we exclude the first nine rounds of the season and just use the information gleaned from Round 11 through Round 23? Well, it gets a little better. Now their record is only overstated by a bit over one win.

Don’t fret too much though Brisbane fans! It was a bit of a freaky year from a scoring point of view: my Pythagorean model performed the poorest it has since 2009, when St Kilda’s historically crazy defensive performance combined with Geelong’s historically crazy offensive scheme to blow the model up.

Only three teams were within +/-0.5 wins of their actual total compared to their Pythagorean expectation in 2014 – suggesting lots of crazy shit happened – so it may not be the best indicator.

As per earlier in the column, Brisbane had by far the hardest schedule on a week-to-week basis in 2014. Let’s say things break right for them, the three new guys settle in and become productive pretty quickly, Hanley comes back before the mid season break and Brisbane look comfortable on eight or nine wins with seven rounds remaining. Whose spot from this year’s final eight do they take?

For mine, there are two candidates: Richmond and Geelong. These two stick out as the two most likely when you use a bit of deductive reasoning.

Will Hawthorn fall out of the eight? No.

Sydney? When you have a player worth two or more wins on his own, no.

Fremantle? Ross Lyon is in full Greg Popovich mode. They won’t drop out. This year anyway.

Port Adelaide? Another Hinkley Pre Season for Wines, Wingard and co?

North Melbourne? I was half a season too early on my top four call.

Essendon? Well, if they can play their actual players, I think they’ll be pushing for the top four with the list they have. The question will be whether James Hird’s ego will mean he blows up Mark Thompson’s game plan.

That leaves Geelong and Richmond from last year’s eight.

Geelong’s bell has been tolling since the departure of the AFL’s richest non-administrator in 2010, but I think this year might be the year Geelong succumb to the ladder cycle everyone that isn’t Melbourne has been on for the past 20 years.

One figure stands out: Geelong was involved in seven games that were decided by less than 12 points last year, and won all seven of them. That’s just not sustainable – if you played the 2014 season again they would have been much more likely to win three or four of them.

Based solely on points for and against, Geelong were the eighth-best team in footy last year. North’s semi-final victory felt like a bit of a changing of the guard – sort of like when Geelong just pipped Collingwood in 2007.

It was Geelong’s ageing core that dragged the Cats back into the North semi. Christensen and Travis Varcoe are gone, replaced by a number of untried youngsters and Demon discards. Jimmy Bartel, Corey Enright, James Kelly and Steve Johnson are another year older.

Tom Hawkins kicked 41 goals more than the next best scorer. And, well, the draw looks pretty dicey.

But I reckon Richmond are the ones to watch out for when it comes to missing the eight.

Richmond’s run to the finals last year was spectacular. But they just managed to scrape in, despite having the easiest draw of 2014 according to my matrix.

The Tigers’ draw was almost five points per week weaker than the hypothetical even draw, and a full two goals easier than Brisbane. They were one of the three sides that matched their Pythagorean expected wins – but that was mostly by virtue of being about three wins behind after 13 rounds and then making that up with that incredible 9-0 finish.

After flagging their intent to make lots of noise during the player exchange period mid season, the Tigers ended 2014 with a whimper.

A purported trade with Melbourne for Jackson Trengove fell through following a medical exam – the first time I can remember that happening in the AFL – while the only free agent signing was the nuggety Taylor Hunt.

It’s not clear whether the Tigers couldn’t find anything they thought would move the needle during trade week, or just failed to get something done. What is clear is they will enter season 2015 with essentially the same starting 22 as last year.

Fortunately, Richmond’s ‘core four’ of Cotchin, Deledio, Martin and Edwards stand up to most other groups in the league. Their rivals are all above them on the ladder: Fremantle, Sydney, Hawthorn and (probably) North are in the ball park. As the gurus at Richmond acknowledged mid year, midfield depth is the issue for Richmond, and I would think they are the least deep of all of last year’s finalists – and even potentially more shallow that the Lions this year.

Now the Tigers have got a pretty reasonable slate of games this year. Collingwood-esque, even. Richmond play 15 of their 22 games at the MCG, and play their final four weeks in Melbourne. The draw, in and of itself, might be enough to save them from losing their place to a challenger.

But projecting based on the draw is a bit of a mug’s game isn’t it? If a 12th place finisher can end up with a set of games 264 points more challenging than a semi finalist, then what can we really glean by mucking around with numbers?

It’s tough to make predictions, but I look forward to giving it a shot with you this AFL season.