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The Tigers shocked the footy world when they beat Sydney on the weekend and booked a place in the AFL finals for 2014. Personally I think everyone is more shocked that they didn’t end up in their natural resting place of ninth.
Ninth was an outcome which was most certainly on the cards at the 29-minute mark of the last quarter. But, they’ve made it, and in the process set a couple of records. Probably.
I’d heard the term ‘unprecedented’ bandied around a bit in the footy show circuit earlier this week. But the thought occurred to me, as it does whenever I hear 95 per cent of the paid footy punditry say things like that. Is it really unprecedented? No one’s checked it.
So I ran the numbers. Shock, I know.
The Tigers were 3-10 after 13 rounds, and proceeded to go 9-0 in rising from 16th on the ladder – third last! – to September action. In the process they lifted their percentage from 92.5 over the first 13 weeks of the season to 130.6 over those nine rounds.
Damn that’s impressive.
Before we get into the comparisons, a quick note on the Tiger’s first 13 games. Coach Damien Hardwick intimated earlier in the week that the Tiger’s numbers were all tracking in the right direction but they just weren’t able to get the wins on the board.
PyEx, a stat that cuts through luck and looks at a team’s pure offensive and defensive output, had them at a record of either 4-9 or 5-8. So there’s some truth to that statement.
Richmond aren’t the first team to see their percentage soar in the second half of the season.
The Tigers lifted their percentage from a below average 93 to a very strong 131 over the final nine rounds of the season. How strong is 131? It would be third in the league if they’d maintained it over 22 games.
Contrary to popular belief, it was actually built on defence, with Richmond conceding the second-least points per game over those nine weeks at 69. Sydney was the only side more stingy, at 63. Meanwhile, the Tigers were eighth in scoring potency.
But I digress. Richmond’s +38 lift in percentage is by no means unprecedented. In fact, there’s be many instances of this occurring in the 24-year history of the AFL (oh yeah by the way, the basis for all of these comparisons is 1990 onwards – if we’re being arbitrary we might as well have a little bit of logic).
So many that I’m not going to list them.
| Team | Ladder (after 13 rounds) | Ladder (after season) |
| St Kilda (’11) | 12 | 6 |
| Fremantle (’12) | 13 | 7 |
| Brisbane (’95) | 14 | 8 |
| Geelong (’06) | 10 | 3 |
| Geelong (’94) | 11 | 4 |
The best of all time was the 2012 Fremantle side, who lifted their percentage from 90.8 percent in the first part of the season to an insane 163% in their final nine games, rising from 13th to seventh on the ladder in the process.
Richmond aren’t the first team to win their final nine games of the year, either
Sorry, Tiger fans, but wining your final nine games is also slightly more common than you think. In fact, it’s happened seven times between 1990 and 2014.
’95 Carlton
’98 Kangaroos
’01 Lions
’05 Adelaide
’06 Fremantle
’08 Geelong
’14 Richmond
However, students of history will be able to quickly point out that all of these teams were either at or near the very top echelons of the ladder as they made their run. All but the ’06 Fremantle side, anyway.
Which brings me to my next point.
Richmond aren’t the first side to make the finals after being out of them with nine games remaining
Yeah, sorry again guys. Your run was pretty good, but it’s been done before. In fact, 18 teams – almost one every season – made a run to the final five, six or eight at the death. Most of these teams, though, had to make up one or two positions to get there.
In saying that, there’s been six instances of where a team has made up an insane number of ladder positions in the final nine games of the year…
Do you feel it coming, Tigers fans?
But, Richmond are the first side in AFL history to have made up eight positions on the ladder within nine games and made finals
That’s right! At no point in the 25ish year history of the AFL has a team been made up eight positions on the AFL ladder with nine games remaining and made finals. Richmond’s rise from 16th to eighth in nine weeks is, in fact, unprecedented in the AFL.
While we’re at it, Richmond’s move from a 3-10 team to a 12-10 team is easily (easily) the biggest half season turnaround in AFL history, too. The 1995 Brisbane Bears went from 4-9 to 10-12 in making it to eighth on the ladder, but other than that it’s not even close. That point is kind of more important than the ladder position, for mine.
What does it mean for the Tiger’s chances?
Well, this is where the good news ends. The 18 ‘fast finishers’ in AFL history have gone a combined 7-25 in the finals once they’ve made it, and three of those wins are accounted for by Geelong’s ridiculous 1994 run. The 17 other teams are a combined 4-21, a winning percentage of 16 per cent.
But as Richmond have shown this year, just because something is ‘unprecedented’ doesn’t mean it can’t happen.