In the first three rounds of Super Rugby, every team that has kicked the ball out of hand less than their opponent has only won on three occasions. And in each of those instances, they broke the line or beat defenders at a prodigious rate.
For instance, in Round 1 only one team with fewer kicks won. That was the Chiefs, who had to beat 22 defenders.
In Round 2, the Waratahs managed the feat, but beat 28 defenders. In each case, the kick differential was only two to three kicks, depending on which statistic resource is used.
I noticed this trend while trying to come up with a tipping theory. I have posted this theory a few times, without vouching for its long-term viability.
Some have challenged me to distinguish between kicks. There are exit kicks that must be made, there are attacking grubbers or cross-kicks, aimless punts and little dinks and raking line kicks.
Some are kicks of choice, and some are realistically no choice.
I cannot find that data easily, so I watched a game I had recorded (Reds versus Force) that had a 40-28 kick-from-hand margin. It was hard to watch, actually, but I could fast-forward past several three-minute scrum resets (and a penalty try to the dominant Reds scrum).
I divided all the kicks into ‘choice’ and ‘no choice’ categories.
The Reds kicked 24 times by choice, while 16 were essentially mandatory. Mandatory means that they were either pinned deep inside their 22 without support or space, had penalties that were beyond range or they were kicks from a mark. Forty per cent of the time, their kicks were discretionary.
The Force kicked 19 times by discretion, and nine times without a real choice. Also, they had to chase the game from when it was 18-6 to the Reds, and so they kept ball in hand more often. The Force’s kicked by choice at a rate of 68 per cent, often necessitated due to a good kick-chase from the Reds.
Will Genia booted nine box kicks. The first one was poor and led to the Force scoring three points. The second was bad, too, but the Force bungled the catch. The third was very good, but the fourth was so telegraphed that the Force launched a proper counter-attack. The fifth was brilliant, and led to a five-metre attacking Reds scrum, which ultimately, after many resets and penalties, clinched the match with a penalty try.
The sixth box kick went too far, and into the try area. The seventh, eighth and ninth were OK in depth, but one went out on the full.
The Reds used a few grubbers, although none of them really worked. I rated all the kicks into categories of good, OK or poor. The Reds’ ratio was 10-21-9.
The Force kicked less expertly, with a ratio of 8-10-10. They tried only one box kick, and used more grubbers to get into the Reds’ 22.
There were a few times when the Force should have kicked when they did not. The Reds could have kicked less and still won, but one of the few times where they ran and passed out of their 22 led to a magnificent team try.
I think even if you subtract all the mandatory exit kicks, the overall kick-from-hand statistic usually holds up, in approximate fashion.
From the real story appears to be the quality of the kicks. For top class kicking from hand, watch Conor Murray and Johnny Sexton’s win over England last weekend. Any team in the world, including the All Blacks, would struggle with that many well-placed, well-timed and well-chased bombs falling on the 23 or 24-metre line, in damp air.
Batdown
Roar Rookie
Turnover ball IMO is a consequence of poor decisionmaking on the part of the individual and/or the group. The impact of the opposition is obviously a contributing factor to winning turnover ball (ie. technique and your oppositions desire to secure the ball etc) but ultimately turnover ball begins and ends with the ball carrier and his team mates. Meanwhile, the effects of turnover ball can only be managed or reduced by the team that lost said possession. Teams like the Waratahs and Chiefs have the personel and tactics to mercilessly exploit such opportunities to score tries while other teams seem happy enough to gun for the penalty when in the "red zone".
Harry Jones
Expert
Ireland had 59% of possession and 58% of territory. Ireland kicked from hand 38 times; England 23 times. Ireland offloaded 5 times; England offloaded 8 times. Ireland had 3 clean breaks; England had 10. England tackled better (87% vs. 82%), but had to tackle more. Big stat: England conceded 23 turnovers; Ireland only 9. Very good counter-rucking, too, by the Irish. Underrated.
Harry Jones
Expert
Good point. But he is getting more confident...
Harry Jones
Expert
Exactly, Daz. ABs can use/defend kicking game the best, and also win without much possession.
RobC
Roar Guru
Check is the original Rugby inventor. He invented Rugby before it existed. Bookies odds for Tahs win: 1.40 Bookies odds for Reds win: 3.0 Not quite the same as Brumbies/Force (1.16/5.5) but still a sign of the confidence. Naturally, I hope the Reds win. What Im looking for realistically: - Excellent D (max 2 tries) - Pack delivering a good set piece - Backs respecting the ball - Gill winning 3 TOs.
Harry Jones
Expert
I'm looking forward to that one. Cheika invented rugby And the Reds coach apparently knows nothing So if he beats Cheika......
RobC
Roar Guru
Primarily keep possession away from the Tahs. Also, more judiciously defend rucks, compared to the last couple Reds Tahs game. Attack better than last week (that goes without saying). If you see Reds deliver a few listless kicks to the Tahs, then you know the game is over. They will also try to break up possession, challenge through their set piece. I am suspicious, that Tahs will surprise the Reds scrum here. All depends on how much better Skelton shores up his scrummaging.
Harry Jones
Expert
RobC What's rhe Reds plan this week?
taylorman
Roar Guru
"Any team in the world, including the All Blacks, would struggle with that many well-placed, well-timed and well-chased bombs" that is...when Sexton finally manages to front versus the AB's to do so. He has generally had shockers...
Daz
Guest
Harry one of my favourite sayings is when the only tool you have is a hammer, after a while every problem starts to look like a nail. You can easily become ideologically bound. You have to have a range of options depending on the problem/s you encounter. Kicking is definitely one of them. Of all the world rugby teams I'd say the darkness have the most complete toolbox.
AlsBoyce
Roar Guru
Good idea to give a kick breakdown by type and quality. I think your theory might need a lot more data and probably some fine-tuning as well. It would have been good to see kick stats for the England-Ireland test as well. The Irish kickers are very skilled, and their chase is as good as any, so I wonder how many Irish kicks were poor? I have a feeling that poor kicks are more damaging to the kicking team than good kicks from their opposition. The most damaging, I think, are optional kicks between the 22s directly to an opposition player without sufficient chasing pressure, particularly where there were attacking possibilities ignored. It's in the mindset of the player, generally. They either think to kick first or think to run first. The kick-firsts can squander opportunities, while the run-firsts can get caught under pressure well behind the gain-line. Obviously there is a balance, and the correct choices must be made, but squandering attacking opportunities with ill-considered kicking is the most damaging to a team's chances of success IMO.
Harry Jones
Expert
He's right there with Aaron Smith; different types of 9, but really good and a big reason Ireland is having this run
Dandaman
Roar Rookie
Given the strategic importance of kicking from hand I wonder if kicking gets sufficient attention during training. I say this because when you watch kicking used properly (a la just about any ABs game or Ireland last weekend) it is of such high value. In the professional era this is just not acceptable. The stats you have generated on the Reds v Force match are astounding as to the low percentage of excellent kicks. I would hope that in every team there are 2-3 excellent kickers. This is not just about pin point accuracy or distance but also about decision making skills and chasing. So for me the frustrating things about kicking is (which one would think are able to be overcome): - Not executing good kicks. - Poor decision making around kicking (and this includes things like chips and grubbers). - Poor kick chase.
RobC
Roar Guru
Thanks Harry. Good findings. It all about quality! re Reds Force. It was the coach's mandate to hoof the ball downfield then defend, due to the weather.
PeterK
Roar Guru
totally agree. IMO the biggest difference is on turnover. Normally the defence is not set and THAT is the time to run the ball from your own half and sometimes even inside the 22 if you have an overlap. Far far far too often the reaction to a turnover by SA and Aust teams is to kick it right back. Even worse using a box kick. Worse still aust teams do not have chasers. If you going to kick on turnover kick it out. The NZ teams however exploit turnovers far far better and make great running raids.
Harry Jones
Expert
Yes, PeterK, it's true that the margin shrinks down--it was always running more Reds kicks but then near the end when Force was chasing the game, it became more pronounced. And really, to your point, I think the actual margin is rather small in most Super games. So my theory is pretty week. It's just that it's vital to kick enough... You simply cannot build phases over and over from the wrong half given the excellent pilferers and turnover raids. I noticed that only very few teams can "break those rules"
Harry Jones
Expert
Yes, that's true, and even then, one mistake can cost you 7 points. ABs learned to deal w du Preez & Steyn bombs. This Irish kicking menu is more diverse. Also, C. Murray disguises his box kicks better. And snipes. So it's like a tennis player who has 5 types of serves but same toss...
PeterK
Roar Guru
Harry thanks for doing this. I question your inference that the kick from hand remains approx the same. Orig stat 40-28. That is 143% more by one team. Discretionary kicks 24-19. That is 126% more by one team. A drastic reduction. You chose a game with a great margin being the difference. On other games where the difference is less you could easily have the winner being the one with less discretionary kicks. On the conclusion there is no doubt kicking at the right time, to the right place with quality chases is a very good tactic. Kicking the ball away with a small lead to good attacking team in the final 5 mins instead playing the clock down however is not.
Batdown
Roar Rookie
Thank you for the interesting article Harry, IMO tactics and/ or whether your players can execute an "effective" attacking or defensive kicking game will dictate whether you are successful with this style of play or not. A clear example was during the 2011 RWC semi final where Henry anticipated a high up and under game from Australia. The "bomb disposal trio" of Israel Dagg, C. Jane and R. Kahui despatched this threat with consumate ease effectively ending the Wallabies quest for Webb Ellis. It also seemed to me that Henry asked his team to exert tremendous pressure at the breakdown to ensure W. Genia and Q. Cooper had a torrid time putting foot to ball. The ABs won the game before they set foot on the paddock. The tactics G. Henry employed was sound as was the skill level of his players to effectively execute it.
kiwi
Guest
I watched (and very much enjoyed) the Ireland / England game last weekend, Harry. I have to say you're starting to win me over re: Conor Murray. I always knew he was good, but when you really follow him he's actually a lot better than that.