At the end of 2013, players were lining up to get out of Brisbane. Last year, they were lining up to get in. But are the Lions themselves coming or going?
Since playing finals in 2009, they’ve been mired in the bottom six, finishing 13th, 15th, 13th, 12th and 15th. They haven’t been going anywhere, and nothing has been done with conviction. It couldn’t make for more uninspiring reading.
Are they destined for another year down in the cellar, or are they going to start getting better like a fine wine? You’ll find plenty of people argue the former, but there might just be a case for the latter.
Check out the rest of Rosey’s AFL preview series here.
Let’s have a look at a potential best side, even though they’ve already been compromised with long-term injuries to Pearce Hanley and Ryan Harwood. These two have been placed in the emergencies.
B: D.Merrett J.Clarke D.Gardiner
HB: D.Rich M.Maguire J.Adcock
C: D.Zorko D.Beams J.Redden
HF: A.Christensen S.Martin M.Robinson
F: L.Taylor D.McStay J.Green
Foll: M.Leuenberger J.Aish T.Rockliff
Int: S.Mayes M.Paparone B.Staker R.Bewick
Em: R.Harwood P.Hanley L.McGuane
The Lions have brought in a host of midfielder/forwards to complement an area that was already looking pretty well stocked. It’s easy to argue they actually have the best midfield in the competition, especially once Hanley is up and firing.
However, they look weak at either end of the ground after Jonathon Brown’s retirement and Joel Patfull’s defection to Greater Western Sydney.
Brisbane will deliver us a lesson in just how important the midfield is relative to attack and defence.
Can the most elite of midfields create enough chances to allow the small forwards to win games against sides that may be more balanced across the ground? Can the best of midfields literally win games off their own collective boot?
They can certainly do better than many expect. After all, West Coast won a premiership in 2006 with not much more than an elite midfield. Their centre-half back finished third in the Eagles goal-kicking!
Dayne Beams and Tom Rockliff are top-10 players in the competition, although we’ll see if my fellow Roar experts agree when we release our Top 50 in a couple of weeks’ time.
Beams does the hard work inside, is damaging on the outside, and finishes his work on the scoreboard. There’s not a box he doesn’t tick. He’s collected 30 touches or more in half of his matches across the last four seasons, and has kicked multiple goals in about a quarter of them too.
No player averaged more disposals per game last season than Rockliff, and none averaged more tackles either, proving his worth as a two-way player. He may not have the polish of many others, but few match his work-rate and appetite for the ball.
Hanley was arguably Brisbane’s most damaging mid last year, and will be sorely missed. If he was fully fit, I’d have had the Lions sneaking into the finals.
Dayne Zorko is an old-fashioned footballer who knows where to be to get the footy, and makes good decisions to dispose of it when he does. Jack Redden is the master of consistency who will go from second or third banana in the middle for Brisbane, to seventh or eighth. That’s depth.
The left foot of Daniel Rich is one of the most lethal weapons in the game, and he’ll feel like a new recruit alternating between half-back and the middle after only three matches last season.
Of the actual recruits, apart from Beams, Allen Christensen was arguably the brightest young star down at Geelong, and a personal favourite of mine. He’s got skill to burn, drips with class, and when he fully matures as a player and is injury free, watch out.
Mitch Robinson always provided more than what it said on the label at Carlton, and was their barometer for many seasons. With a change of club providing him with the spark he needs to become more consistent, watch for him to set the tone early in games with his hardness, no small amount of skill and nose for a goal.
Of the young players, Lewis Taylor won the NAB Rising Star award last season, and James Aish finished a clear fourth. Sam Mayes is a smooth mover that might be the best of them all. The future looks bright too.
Put all those names together, and that’s half a side’s worth of quality players to be rotating through the middle and flanks at either end of the ground. They’re going to be sharing a lot of football, and creating many scoring opportunities.
The defence isn’t imposing, but it will be led by the experience of Daniel Merrett, Matt Maguire and Jed Adcock to help develop the likes of Darcy Gardiner, Justin Clarke, Mitch Golby and Tom Cutler.
Stef Martin and Matthew Leuenberger will be asked to provide a presence up forward when rotating ruck duties. Luke McGuane has a good pair of hands on him when his confidence is up, and may be used to present hard at the ball while also adding value with defensive pressure.
Daniel McStay, Michael Close and Jonathan Freeman, among others, will be given the chance to learn their craft as key forwards at the highest level. If any of them can make the grade, it will go a long way to helping Brisbane develop as a team.
Don’t underestimate the Lions this year. Opposition teams certainly won’t. Their midfield will rip the weaker sides apart, and put the frighteners up the stronger ones.
Predicted ladder spread: 9th-12th
Predicted finish: 10th
Rosey’s ladder
10th – Brisbane
11th – Adelaide
12th – Collingwood
13th – Greater Western Sydney
14th – West Coast
15th – Carlton
16th – Melbourne
17th – Western Bulldogs
18th – St Kilda
Macca
Guest
Jax it is McKenzie & Darling not just McKenzie. But I'm sure Jeremy Cameron would be much happier not having McKenzie, with the Blues (who have a great record at Subi by the way) Henderson, Casboult, Jones & Menzel all get to slide back 1 defender - it might just be 1 more goal but it might be the difference. At the other end no Darling means life gets tougher for Kennedy - again it may not be a major difference but if it is another goal it all adds up. You are right we don't know which teams have improved and which haven't but it would take a brave call to say that the Suns won't improve more than the Eagles to name just 1.
jax
Guest
Macca - yeah I can really see the monster GWS, Blues and Lions CHF's getting a hold of WC without Mackenzie, not. You don't know which team is going to improve any more than I do because the season hasn't started but I'm comfortable with where WC are at.
TomC
Roar Guru
Ah, I missed that. Thanks for clarifying, Macca. I like the line though - 'all talls no action'. I'll have to find a way to slip that into conversation. One thing that has amused me slightly is all the positivity around the club following a 7-15 season, where they looked absolutely hopeless up until about round 10. Honestly, at that point I was checking the form for the number one draft pick. Positive off-field stuff is nice, but wins are the best proof of progress.
Macca
Guest
Nah Dingo I was being a smart ar$e - In Dons orignal post I think he had a auto correct issue that saw the word "talls" replaced with "talks".
DingoGray
Roar Guru
As a Lions fan the upcoming season is certainly exciting. We for the 1st time in quite a while can see genuine improvement and development. That's not just on the field but off the field as well. And of course with that brings a little bit of expectation. I look forward to see how our club deals with that expectation.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
Macca- the talk about Brisbane is certainly not coming from within Brisbane. It's the wider AFL community. Brisbane have been very steadfast in that the group is still learning and developing and they have a long way to travel yet. I think they are very comfortable with the road they are travelling, but I don't think they've been talking themselves up at all.
TomC
Roar Guru
If Richmond aren't ninth, your predictions lose all credibility.
Macca
Guest
Don Freo - My Concern with that Brisbane side would be that they are all talk and no action.
Don Freo
Guest
Who cares, Dougie? Those of us who have contributed to 100 comments. Brissy, with their midfield and a very solid group of young talls, supported by sound older talls, makes them exciting. Collingwood and Adelaide offer no such hope to their fans and absolutely nothing to interest football lovers in general. Hence the disparity.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Sorry fella's, today is my racing previews! I might step it up to do four next week. Hmm, first or second on the ladder for the Tiges? Maybe second, I don't want to appear biased...
Don Freo
Guest
Hanley will be missed, he's good, but one missing player won't have much impact. It is when teams lose 5 or 6 players that they will be affected. Brissy would love Hanley but they will have no problem covering for him. Rich, Beams, Christensen, Robinson, Redden...all additions
Macca
Guest
Cam said the other week he would be doing about 3 a week - so I think Monday will be 9th (but I get the impression it won't be the Tigers).
Franko
Guest
Where is todays? Who is coming 9th? Is Cam loath to post his beloved Tigers in their natural ladder position?
Macca
Guest
Pumping Dougie - I think it is because Brisbane have a greater range in their possible final ladder position than Collingwood or Adelaide.
Macca
Guest
Jax - even with McKenzie and Darling I wouldn't have them 6 places higher (other teams have improved more) but it is precisely because of the teams you list that I think the loss of McKenzie and Darling (even if he comes back in R5 he will be underdone) that I have you dropping down a bit further. With McKenzie & Darling GWS, Carlton & the Lions would all probably be wins without them I think 2 of them become losses, that is massive in this tight season. If you had Port, Hawthorn, Sydney, Freo & the Gold Coast away in those 5 games I don't think the loss of Darling and McKenzie would impact the season as much.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Thanks Josh. Yep, I agree with all of that. They'll be rapt if they can find a tall to kick that 30+ goals. With Brown's retirement and Merrett moving back, the best a 190cm+ player kicked last year was 10 from Close. Haha, I've got a hard decision to make about the Tiges...they'll be one of the next two I think...
Pumping Dougie
Guest
How does an article on Brisbane generate over 100 comments, yet Cam's article on Collingwood (and Adelaide for that matter) only generate 40 comments? Who cares so much about Brisbane?
Pumping Dougie
Guest
Collingwood's doesn't look that good in hindsight (especially in comparison to the others listed by Pooh). And St Kilda's recent grand final teams lacked a quality backline apart from Sam Fisher. But the things those two sides had in common was a great system, 'team defense' approach implemented by brilliant coaches (Malthouse and Ross Lyon).They both had good forward lines too. Leppitsch is about 10 years off those blokes.
Josh
Expert
Good piece Cam. In my opinion the Lions are among the most interesting teams of 2015 - they could finish anywhere from fifth to twelfth in my eyes. There's no doubting the midfield talent they have at their disposal now, and at the end of the day it's the midfield that wins games. As you pointed out the Eagles in '06 are a great example of a side that went all the way despite a fairly low-grade forward line, and I think the same could be said about the Swans in '12. That said, I think there will be a phase of adjustment in which the team will need to learn to gel together. That, and the Hanley injury, will probably keep them out of the eight this year. How fast they can get their midfield machine up and firing is going to be a great indication of just how far Justin Leppitsch can go as a senior coach. The KPI's I would probably set for them would be: - Win 10 games - Sign James Aish long term - Have a 190cm+ player kick 30+ goals If they do all three, they'll be a lock for my top eight in 2016. p.s. If I was a Tigers fan, I'd be twisting in the wind waiting for you to name Team #9.
Freo As
Guest
But are they good more because the team is organised in a way to play well to their strengths or because of their inherent talent? How would you rate the talent of the Port Adelaide team pre-2013 vs now?