In the pre-season of 2014, North Melbourne was the popular smoky to jump into the top four from outside the eight the previous year.
While they could only finish sixth, two games and 13.36% behind fourth-placed Fremantle at the end of the home and away rounds, they were able to run over Essendon and survive a barnstorming Geelong during the finals to finish the season a preliminary finalist.
Check out the rest of Rosey’s AFL preview series here.
It was a year of deliverance for a side that had been the definition of middle-of-the-road during coach Brad Scott’s reign. Now is the time for consolidation.
Let’s have a look at the side they have to do it with:
B: J.Macmillan S.Thompson L.Hansen
HB: S.Atley N.Grima N.Dal Santo
C: S.Gibson J.Ziebell D.Wells
HF: B.Harvey J.Waite S.Higgins
F: L.Thomas D.Petrie B.Brown
Foll: T.Goldstein A.Swallow B.Cunnington
Int: M.Firrito R.Bastinac S.Wright L.McDonald
Em: A.Black L.Adams B.Jacobs
The Kangaroos have built a squad that has excellent depth and flexibility across the board.
Players like Aaron Mullett, Robbie Tarrant (who will play while Nathan Grima recovers from injury), Scott McMahon, Joel Tippett and Kayne Turner can all play decent football, and as depth players will play a key role in keeping their side in top four contention.
And that doesn’t include a few top 30 draft picks we haven’t seen, plus a rookie like Robin Nahas who had forced his way into the best 22 last year before being struck down with injury.
Jarrad Waite and Shaun Higgins are enigmatic additions to last year’s team. While supporters from their former clubs will say the gap between their best and worst is too great, anything close to high end consistency from them will add much value to any top four team.
Both players strike as the sort that will turn over a new leaf and deliver in a new environment.
Scott Thompson is arguably the premier full-back in the game, because like all the best key defenders he backs himself in the air against his opponent, and looks to run off and create at any opportunity.
Lachie Hansen, who reads the ball far better when behind it than he does in front, will also be down there to help out in the air as an effective third man up.
Shaun Atley and the returning Jamie MacMillan will look to be the runners from the back half, but may have to add some defensive steel to their natural attacking games.
Luke McDonald was possibly the most consistent first year player in the league in 2014, and will look to continue learning his defensive craft this time around.
Nick Dal Santo will float down back from time to time to do a little quarterbacking, but his teammates will want him driving the ball into the forward-line with his silky skills. He’s still one of only a handful across the league that appears to make time stop when he gets the ball.
Daniel Wells will be like a new recruit himself, and in some ways it’s hard to believe he’s 30 years old. Not just the outside player he’s renowned as, his clearance work is exceptional when he gets the chance.
Jack Ziebell isn’t quite in the game’s elite, and will possibly never amount to much more than very good. He has often lacked continuity, missing an average of five matches a year over the last five seasons, but he’s as hard as a cat’s head, and will continue to crash in with zero regard for his own personal safety.
Andrew Swallow and Ben Cunnington are the other tough nuts that give the North midfield that hard edge that all top four aspirants need.
Captian Swallow is a wonderful natural footballer, clean of hand and mind, and if I call him a lesser version of Jobe Watson, it is meant as a high compliment. Cunnington still has plenty of improvement left in him at 23 years of age, and needs to lift his possession rate from 21-22 a game up to that 28-30 mark.
Swallow, Cunnington and Ziebell will feed at the feet of Todd Goldstein, who appreciates being a solo ruckman more than any other big man in the league, and delivers the goods accordingly.
Sam Gibson is good honest player who will be left alone to run the wings again. Ryan Bastinac has surely set himself to ditch the green vest that he carried through the finals last year, as he’s far too talented for that, and North will be a better side when he makes the step to first 18 player.
Drew Petrie is aging, and shrugged off criticism of being a flat-track bully with some match-winning periods in the finals series. His best is behind him, but as long as he presents aggressively, takes an opposition body down, and is good for two or three goals a game, he still has value.
Ben Brown has only played eleven games, but kicked three goals in a stunning ten minutes in last year’s elimination final against Essendon to drag his side back into the game. Not many can do that so early in a career, so his future is bright, but there’ll still be inconsistency this season.
Lindsay Thomas has become a premier forward pocket in the competition, and will again present headaches for opposition sides. He just needs to keep his feet in the contest.
Brent Harvey was first spotted playing kick-to-kick with Captain Cook on the deck of the Endeavour, and is still going strong some 250 years later. What a marvel of the modern game he’s been.
There is still no-one that runs harder or quicker at the end of games, especially if he’s sniffed a goal, and he’ll once again be a clear and present danger to every backline in the league. Stop Harvey getting the ball, and you’ll cut down North’s most key avenue to goal.
Champion Data tells us that North has the second oldest list, and the most experienced in terms of games played. Their draw difficulty is ranked somewhere in the middle, which is not bad for a club coming off a prelim.
The list management says top four. The draw helps. The coaching staff and players have to deliver on it, and they should.
North will break teams open with fast, skilful play. If they can run hard both ways and ensure the team defence is strong, they’ll be a threat against whoever they play.
Predicted ladder spread: third – sixth
Predicted finish: fourth
Rosey’s ladder
4th – North Melbourne
5th – Fremantle
6th – Gold Coast
7th – Geelong
8th – Richmond
9th – Essendon
10th – Brisbane
11th – Adelaide
12th – Collingwood
13th – Greater Western Sydney
14th – West Coast
15th – Carlton
16th – Melbourne
17th – Western Bulldogs
18th – St Kilda
Josh
Expert
Fair call, it's a difficult matter to make a hard argument on. Always enjoy a good verbal stoush one way or the other :) Hopefully Cunnington finds another gear this year and puts the question beyond doubt.
Josh
Expert
I do rate Sutters Don, but I think you're getting ahead of yourself just a teense.
AussieBokkie
Guest
Levi was a big loss but NM could never match what Collingwood put on the table. He's a very good player but Collingwood overpaid. Scoring Higgins and Whaite for the loss of Levi is a very nice compensation.
AussieBokkie
Guest
Always enjoy your pieces Rosey. As a North Melbourne fan, I can't disagree with anything you've said. It's exciting times at Arden Street but the pressure is on Scott to deliver a flag in the next 2-3 years or we are done and dusted for the next decade.
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
As far as the Brownlow goes, my thoughts are you win it, you deserve it ("deserve" being so fuzzy an adjective/descriptor it is right up there on my list of the ultimately meaningless). But Priddis' win is telling about Brownlow votes and player quality, as how many would honestly have Priddis as being in the top 10 players in the competition, let alone the best? So Brownlow votes are nowhere near a good consistent measure of quality and can be rather scattergun, case in point Pav not getting a vote last year.
TomC
Roar Guru
No. Brownlow votes in one season are not a good way to measure a team's top tier against another team's middle tier. That is just an absurd argument. In any case, Nathan Jones does in fact get quite a lot of Brownlow votes, so that was a strange example. Enright is not the player he was, but in my opinion, he has more impact even now than Cunnington. I doubt that's a minority opinion. I rate Stokes very highly, so that's a no brainer for me. Duncan probably could go either way, as you've said. I just realised I forgot Lonergan. So it's either eight or nine, depending on the great Cunnington v Duncan debate. It's good to be precise.
Don Freo
Guest
Zac? Hmmm! Perhaps... I'll give you a tip. Cam Sutcliffe is Jimmy Bartel good.
Josh
Expert
Again my point - are these players really superior players heading into 2015, or do they just have longer careers? Does Corey Enright really have anywhere near as much impact on a game nowadays as Cunnington does? By any measure I'd say you're right on Selwood, Hawkins and Taylor for the forseeable future. Bartel and Johnson would be ahead at the present moment, too, though for how much longer is not certain. Stokes, Duncan I'd say are roughly level - could go either way. And Enright, well, see above. He's a champion of the game but he is not he player he once was. Not all teams get the same number of Brownlow votes, so they are a valid way of looking at this. Nathan Jones does not get 3 votes every week because of the generally poor quality at Melbourne... if he is in the top players in a match, he gets votes, and if he isn't, he does not. They're by no means a perfect measure but in trying to compare players from different teams who play at different positions re overall quality they're about as good as you'll find.
Josh
Expert
Mitch Clark? Cam Sutcliffe? Tendai Mzungu? Next you'll be telling me that Zac Dawson is better than Cunnington, Don.
Josh
Expert
Fair enough, it's my opinion that they're not - not all of them at least. Essentially every statistical measure available agrees with me on that. And for what it's worth I thought Priddis was a deserving Brownlow winner.
TomC
Roar Guru
Sorry DF. I disagree on those three names. Neale's getting there though.
Don Freo
Guest
Dalgety's list...not mine. I'd have Neale and Sutcliffe ahead of Cunnington too. And Mzungu.
Don Freo
Guest
Motlop, Clark.
TomC
Roar Guru
Actually maybe I'm wrong about the Cats: Hawkins, Selwood, Taylor, Enright, Bartel, Johnson, Stokes, Duncan...nope, only eight. If I wanted to be nasty I'd throw in Mackie, Kelly and Rivers, but put a gun to my head I'd take Cunnington before those three.
TomC
Roar Guru
It was, I'll admit, a dramatic point. And there wouldn't be ten players better than Cunnington at the Cats. But joking aside, there are at the other four teams. Brownlow votes are obviously not a practical way of looking at this, seeing as votes for one player crowd out a teammate's votes. On DF's list, I'd swap Pav out for Danyle Pearce, personally.
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
"Brownlow votes aren’t the be all and end all of player value, obviously"…given Priddis won the Brownlow I'd say that's a bit of an understatement. And I'd say yes, all of them are better players now.
Don Freo
Guest
But that 10 are all better than Cunnington...and Cunnington is very good. Another reason for non-purple people to be very afraid.
Josh
Expert
Most of the players in that list have had longer careers than Cunnington, but that does not necessarily make them a better player now. Were their 2014 season up to scratch with that of Cunnington's? As a point of interest, Cunnington had 13 Brownlow votes last year. Fyfe had 25 and was the only Freo player ahead of him. Barlow and Mundy were even with him on 13. Every other player you listed there was below - Pav didn't even receive a vote. Brownlow votes aren't the be all and end all of player value, obviously, but as a rough guide they're no slouch. The other top six clubs generally had 1-3 players with more votes than Cunnington but to suggest they all had ten players better than him is bit off.
Josh
Expert
It is a little ironic that he is going to miss Round 1 while our "injury prone" recruits Higgins and Waite will almost certainly be debuting for the blue and white. Of course, while I'm still a bit peeved at Levi for the manner in which he left the club - and his reasons for doing so - I hope he recovers well and wish him the best at Collingwood.
Josh
Expert
Few points to make here. 1 - we didn't swap Levi Greenwood for Shaun Higgins. We signed Shaun Higgins as a Free Agent and we traded out Levi Greenwood when he requested it. Aside from happening at roughly the same time, there's no link there - they're separate transactions. 2 - personally, I think putting in more outside speed & disposal to our side is exactly what we needed. Thomas is not really an outside mid, he's a specialist small forward. Harvey, Wells and Dal Santo are outside players yep, but I think we needed to add more to this, especially when you consider that all three of those players in their 30s. They can all have some inside impact too. Andy Swallow, Ben Cunnington, Jack Ziebell would be the "hardest" of our midfielders, but they're not alone in being 'hard' players. Personally, I think our midfield is better balanced this year than it was last, though I certainly would prefer that Greenwood had remained with us. In his own words he left because he though he might get pushed out of an inside midfielder role - that should let you know that we don't lack players of that type. 3 - Boomer has not missed a single game through injury in the last five seasons. Petrie has missed one single game through injury in the last four seasons. Both have looked to be in fine form in the pre-season. Yes, the end can come swiftly, but at the moment I see nothing to indicate any kind of imminent decline. I'm not arguing there isn't more risk of decline with them than with a 26 y-o, I'm arguing that neither "has their best footy behind them" as many suggest. I can't find any major statistical gaps between the current form of these players and what I would consider their best form. I certainly hope we are on the way up! I think we will be around the mark for a while to come yet too. We have a good solid core of players who are just entering the peak years of their careers now.