I tipped Manly to miss the finals before the season began, but now I’m starting to think it could get even worse than that.
They could finish closer to last than eighth – the bottom four is a real possibility.
I can’t imagine them finishing dead last – it just seems incomprehensible to think things could get that bad – but I can see them becoming also-rans in this competition.
Why? Yes, they’ve still got great players in the backline, but there was always a big question mark over their forwards. They were never going to be able to afford injuries up front and they’re already getting them.
They’ve got a couple hurt in the backline as well, but the forwards are the key for Manly because they don’t have nearly enough depth there. If they can’t register up front, it will put the brakes on the backline no matter how good they are.
Brenton Lawrence, Feleti Mateo and Josh Starling are all on the injured list.
St George Illawarra’s forward pack isn’t one that strikes fear into the hearts of the genuine contenders among other teams, but it did a job on the Sea Eagles on Saturday night.
The Dragons, as a team, ran for a whopping 1772 metres to Manly’s 1241 metres, with their forwards leading the way.
Trent Merrin is a terrific player, but he ran for 196 metres in 52 minutes. Statistics like that just shouldn’t happen.
The obvious flow-on effect of those sort of numbers is that the dominant team finishes its sets further down the field and is in a position to kick and chase well enough to potentially take the opposition fullback out of the equation.
Brett Stewart ran for just 80 metres out of the back for the Sea Eagles. Josh Dugan, under less pressure on his kick returns, ran for 192 metres.
St George Illawarra only won 12-4, so Manly – as bad as the statistics looked for them – were still committed, but commitment is sorely tested if you start getting pounded on a regular basis.
The lack of forward strength was the reason Manly faded towards the end of last season.
Glenn Stewart and Jamie Buhrer were out injured, Jason King was on his last legs and Anthony Watmough was playing injured.
Now, Stewart and Watmough are at other clubs and King has retired.
The Sea Eagles mainly picked up bargain buys or veterans who were genuine stars at their peak but who were now a bit past it. Their off-season buys have plenty of miles on the clock: 30 in Mateo’s case and 34 in the case of Willie Mason.
It wasn’t enough and when injuries kicked in Manly’s vulnerability was always going to be exposed. That time has already come.
The Sea Eagles will play Canberra at Lavington Sports Ground, Albury, on Saturday. Listen to the alarm bells if they can’t beat the Raiders. It will be deafening.
Does it matter if the Sea Eagles aren’t a factor this season? It depends.
Do Manly haters need that team to be highly competitive before they can really hate them, or will they still hate them just as much if other teams are beating up on them more regularly?
I reckon if you’re a genuine Manly hater you could use a full season of them struggling before there was the slightest risk of it becoming boring.
After all, they’ve been the most dominant team of the last eight years, appearing in four grand finals and winning two of them.
That’s if you don’t count Melbourne. The Storm have appeared in five grand finals and won three since 2006, but had two of those premierships expunged as part of their penalty for cheating the salary cap.
Geoff Toovey used to drive his shoulders in under the ribs of much bigger opponents and put them on their backs. Now, as Manly coach, he looks like he’s got the weight of the world on those shoulders.
It’s enough to make even Manly haters feel sorry for him.
Doug Graves
Guest
"Do Manly haters need that team to be highly competitive before they can really hate them, or will they still hate them just as much if other teams are beating up on them more regularly?" Only way I will stop hating them is if they fold. No way around it.
William Dalton Davis
Roar Rookie
That's the misconception. Brisbane were ready to go the players just needed a contract to sign. So why did it take a whole month and countless meetings for the players to sign on? Why did the super League take so long to seal a done deal? Because it wasn't done. Unlike the Dogs and Raiders they didn't automatically sign on when they saw the huge salaries (some were estimated to be worth 950 a season in today's market) with a massive 100k sign on bonus. They held off because they weren't sure. They were the only team to hold off and the ARL did next to nothing during this time to convince them otherwise. Gordon Tallis was the only player who signed for Brisbane in super league before the rest of the playing group because he was at the dragons at the time. Another reason for the misconception that Brisbane were already gone. All the while we hear Brisbane ripped the soul out of the game this and they're responsible for that, yet we don't hear a peep about the Sydney clubs and Canberra who were in on it almost from the word go.
planko
Guest
Ken your missing the whole point poaching is making a massive overs to get an international player and well above what their current club is offering. Asking a guy if what want's to stop playing reserves and third to play at Manly is slightly different thing.
planko
Guest
Your missing the point Brisbane was wrapped up including all significant players well before any announcement of super league.
Haz
Guest
Yeah, Burgess has been good. Good buy by Joe Kelly. Mateo was good in his first two games when he played more as a forward and was running the ball hard and straight. In the last two games, he's tried to do too much with the ball, and dropped it as a result. Mason has added some leadership and a big body in the middle, but he's showing his age. I'm looking forward to seeing a first-choice front-row rotation of Lawrence, Burgess, Starling, Trbojevic.
Bearfax
Guest
Errr. What are those obvious reasons about hating Manly George W. I'm intrigued
George W
Guest
Broncos, Melbourne, Manly, Roosters are my pet hates. Broncos because they have so many advantages yet whinge about it all, Melbourne for being cheats, Manly for obvious reasons and the Roosters for having a $10m backline and a $9m forward pack.
Bearfax
Guest
And after 7 rounds they are fourth in the SG Ball and equal fourth in Matthew Shield. Manly havent been that successful in the juniors for a very long time.
Tom G
Guest
Oh well Manly Haters are massively overdue after seasons of writing them off at this time for several generations only to have their noses rubbed in it
Jeremy
Guest
Just seen the Trybojevic tackle. The NRL have that on a charge? Seriously they are nuts. THE NRL DOES NOT KNOW THE GAME IT IS IN CHARGE OF. What madness. Bring on the new compeitition from the clubs that want to play league not this NRL rubbish.
silvertail19
Guest
And we lead the u/20's after 4 rounds. Definitely transition period for manly and I as a supporter am looking forward to it.
Gappy
Guest
I personally think manly are over rated big time. And here is why Brett Steward was great once but seams to only play a brookvale Jamie's Lyons is to old and to slow for the top level, only good thing is he is a ok goal kicker.(yes just ok) Steve Matai close to the dirtiest player in the game Rest of back line haven't done much DCE is more overrated than Anasta. Why had a chance to win the final against the dogs but pass it instead of kicking the 1 point Forward pack has nothing on the big packs of South rooster dogs Only good player I'd Foran but it seams like his heart isn't in it at manly In my opinion Manly should move to Coffs for 2 years, knock down brookvale and rebuild the stadium
Bearfax
Guest
No funny business here The Barry.
steve b
Roar Guru
The eye yeh your right i dont hate Manly as much as the Storm .After all Manly gave us two top players whats not to like about that .
The Barry
Roar Guru
Everyone needs a hug.
Sleemo
Guest
Bit different and it's extremely rich (pardon the pun) to call it "poaching" when nobody wanted those players except Manly.
PGNEWC
Guest
We Still love Big Willie at Newie but Stone doesn't -- so far he has been proven right
Ken
Guest
Yeah, that's right planko. Manly had poached Hasler (Penrith), Cleal (Roosters) and T-Rex (Parra) fair and square and it was completely unfair for other teams to make offers to them after that!
marco
Guest
Manly, Broncos, Melbourne. All 3 are rotten in my book.
The eye
Guest
Onya Steve..agree with the Willie and Manly bit..stretching it with the Broncos,Storm more appropriate