Geelong and North Melbourne both entered this season with realistic chances and, no doubt, internal expectations of finishing top four.
For one of those sides, that goal will become distant this weekend.
The loser of Sunday’s match at Simonds Stadium will slide to a 1-3 season record. Since the recent expansion of the AFL, it has taken a minimum of 16 wins on average to finish in the top four.
That means one of North or the Cats likely will have to win 15 of their last 18 games to get the crucial double chance in September.
While both sides have a decent spread of talent, neither looks capable of winning the flag from outside the four.
Given they each also boast a clutch of key players in the fading light of their careers, after this season they could find themselves sliding out of premiership contention. In that light, the significance of tomorrow’s clash is massive.
The last time these teams met, in the 2014 semi-finals, North held off a fast finishing Geelong to earn a preliminary final berth.
It was a bitter ending for the Cats who had been eyeing up yet another flag after finishing on 17 wins for the regular season, equal to eventual grand finalists Sydney and Hawthorn.
Geelong’s habit of making slow starts, only to finish with a rush came back to haunt them on that occasion. North blitzed them with six goals in the opening 17 minutes and the Cats could never reel them back in.
The man who haunted Geelong in that match, ruckman Todd Goldstein, again shapes as perhaps the most important player on the ground tomorrow.
Geelong were bossed at the clearances in both of their losses this season, first to Hawthorn and then to Geelong. The in-form Goldstein will gave North a major advantages at the stoppages.
The Roos’ big man is leading the AFL for hit outs this season at 40 per match to go with 15 touches. Goldstein doesn’t just rack up meaningless stats either, he is clever and accurate with his tap work and has a great understanding with his on-ballers.
The ruck has been a major weakness for Geelong ever since the retirement of big-game specialist Brad Ottens. Goldstein will be opposed to two players who are essentially makeshift ruckmen in Rhys Stanley and Mark Blicavs.
Stanley is a fantastic athlete but is not a natural ruckman and lacks the relish for heavy body contact that the best big men possess.
This description also fits the undersized Blicavs. It’s hard not to see Goldstein running rampant at the stoppages.
The Cats will face an even bigger contest to keep things even in the midfield without injured pair Jimmy Bartel and Matthew Stokes, both of whom offer their side vitality when used around the ball.
North’s midfield has also been diminished by injuries this year although some of that slack has been picked up by inside mids Ben Cunnington and David Swallow.
That pair have been prolific in close this year, averaging 15 clearances a game between them.
Geelong have the advantage playing at home, where they’ve been so dominant for so long. But North match up very well against them.
It’s a hard game to pick. But what’s not in doubt is that the top-four hopes of one of these sides are going to all but evaporate on Sunday.
Gecko
Guest
No, but that was the best I could do. Maybe just a case for Geelong doing OK next year when they win the hit outs and getting obliterated when they lose the hit outs. Bews, Smedts and a slowing Mackie as 3 of your 4 main rebounders is not an awe-inspiring prospect.
Don Freo
Guest
Not sure you have made much of a case for Geelong there.
Gecko
Guest
I think Geelong has more room for improvement in 2015 than North. Geelong have Mitch Clarke who could return to form and they have a host of young runners (Caddie, Murdoch, Duncan and Guthrie) who are all around 50 games and should still be improving. Ditto for big men Dawson Simpson and Biclavs. Also, what's happened to Geelong's Menzel and Hamish McIntosh? But while Geelong's forward line and running players may be improving since 2014, their backline's getting worse. Bews and Smedts are still learning. Mackie, Lonergan and Enright are slowing down and now they've lost Bartel.
andrew
Guest
cam - as a north man, they were super last week. port are a renowned running side, a good mix of endurance running and burst pace. north have 5 hard outside endurance runners on their list (they used to have 6, but greenwood is gone). mc millan, wells, dal santo, harvey and bastinac. 3 of those were missing last week. add to that having to use sub in first few mins of game (setting aside whatever value you place on loss of ziebell), surely anyone had to think north were going to run out of puff as the game wore on. at half time i was worried about a 10 goal blowout. as far a honourable losses go - this was right up there. where did one seriously expect the hard running to come from to match motors with port. whilst port play that brand anyway, im sure hinkley was aware of this and made sure it was a frantic match. eventually the bubble burst with port winning the last 3 clearances of the match to take the points. that north held on for long in the contest was a very encouraging sign. mc mcillan is back this week. wells next week. lachie hansen plays VFL today and will be huge in next week. im confident north can win 2 of their next 3, and be back in the mix at 3-3 after 6 rounds, having navigated a very tough draw at start of season. happy to accept any criticism about the crows loss and happy for anyone to gloss over the lions wins, but dont pot north on last week's effort please.
Sancho
Guest
What teams that gorillas logo?? That's awesome!
Don Freo
Guest
More likely a package deal to West Coast.
Isaac
Guest
Ben Cunnington and David Swallow? Can only hope he joins his brother at North one day...
Pope Paul VII
Guest
Brownie is the giraffe in the room. Best bit of luck North have had this century.
Don Freo
Guest
I'm with you on Geelong, Dean, but I don't think SS and Hawks are walk-ups for the four. Hawks have already folded to an underdone Dons and have tougher games to come. Sydney's defence (like the Hawks) could see them in trouble a few times this year.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
But, as I said Benji, neither Geelong nor North possess the kind of talent that suggests they could recover from 1-3 to storm to the pointy end of the ladder by season's end. Sydney, who you're referring to, by comparison were absolutely stacked with ability.
Dean
Guest
North will win this one, but it doesn't mean the Cats are shot this season. Losing to Hawks, Freo and North isn't exactly unexpected. Did they not lose to them last year and still make the 4? With the competition evening up, I wouldn't be surprised to see 15 or 14 wins being enough to squeeze into the 4. Hawthorn and Sydney seem like walk-up starts for top 4, then Port, Freo, Kangas, Geelong, Adelaide and Essendon fighting for the other 2 spots. Key injuries to any of these teams would probably see them miss, while big seasons from a couple of youngsters at any of these could see them make it in comfortably. Very early in the season to write any clubs off, especially in an 18 team competition with an uneven draw.
Don Freo
Guest
I think North have a big sleeper in Ben Brown. He has improved exponentially on last year and he was good then. I think every game will see him gain confidence and he will elevate to the premier trust position in the minds of an attacking midfield. That will, in turn, take some pressure off Petrie. I expect Waite will finish in the backline or the ressies. The backline with Tarrant added (and I notice Aaron Black is learning defence in the twos) is also a potential area of improvement. Goldstein is the only real challenge to Sandi as the biggest ruck threat. I don't think this game will write off one or the other but I'm tipping North. However, I don't think The Cats will bottom out. They could well still finish 6-8.
Lachie
Roar Rookie
I think the cats probably did consider themselves contenders, and probably still do. But I do not see this as bad, why not have a shot at winning the premiership? Its what footy is played for, otherwise what is the point? What is the harm? I'd be disappointed if the cats didn't consider themselves contenders, and try and get one more flag out of bartel, stevie J and co. this is not to say they are contenders looking objectively, but there is no harm in trying for a flag in Geelong's position
Ryan Buckland
Expert
I don't know if Geelong considered themselves contenders internally before the season. And if they did, they're setting themselves up for one mighty downfall in the years ahead.
Big Benji
Guest
Ronan, I don't know where you get your info from but 2014 evidence suggests if you are sitting 1 and 3 after 4 rounds you will be Minor Premiers.....
Joe
Guest
I think it's too early to be writing off premiership chances. It's Round 4 mate. While a 1-3 record is not ideal, I don't think that it is impossible to come back from. We have to also consider that circumstances may change this season. With Adelaide's impressive start and teams such as GWS and the Bulldogs improving, it may be that a 14-8 or a 15-7 record is enough for a top 4 spot. Also last season Sydney began with a 1-3 record (losses to GWS, Collingwood and North) - where did they end up finishing in the regular season?
TomC
Roar Guru
There've been some great games between these sides the last few years. It's an interesting matchup. I don't really see either of them as premiership contenders, and barely even top four contenders, so I probably don't attach the same significance to it as Ronan. I'm just looking forward to a good contest.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Fair enough, but the fact that North have now been handled by Adelaide, and beaten by Port at their favoured Etihad, says to me they're slipping. It's all running commentary though, and we tweak our thoughts every week I guess.
Lachie
Roar Rookie
Agree about the Cats bot being contenders. Hard to say as a cats man but we have had a good run so I can't be too unhappy. I guess the six you have above North now are hawks, freo, swans, power, crows and bombers. I would disagree slightly and have North still ahead of the bombers and crows and be hesitant about reading too much into the first three rounds. However, lose this weekend, and North would drop right down in my estimations
Cameron Rose
Expert
If North don't win this, they are pretenders. There are seven teams ahead of Geelong in the pecking order right now, so the best the Cats can hope for is eighth in my eyes, fighting with the likes of Richmond and maybe Collingwood and GWS. Their top four and flag chances are non-existent already. North can still contend for top four, but they can be rated no higher than the seventh best team in it right now, so it's going to take something remarkable for them to finish with a double chance. If they can't beat the Cats this week, I'd even suggest a top six finish will be very unlikely. It's a huge crunch game for both.