It’s not your fault, Richmond fans. It’s not your fault. It’s not your fault.
I started following the AFL in the late 1990s and every team that was in the competition then has since had a year or a series of years where their fans could have feasibly said out loud ‘we can win the premiership’ and not been laughed at.
Every team except for one.
The Richmond Football Club has won a total of two finals since 1983. And those two glory years of finals success, 1995 and 2001, ended in preliminary final defeats to the tune of 89 and 68 points. In 25 of their past 32 seasons the Tigers have failed to win more games than they’ve lost.
The best Richmond win of my lifetime was probably last year’s final round victory over Sydney; a three-point victory against a team with nothing to play for that granted Richmond the right to be beaten in an elimination final the following week by 57 points. Again, Richmond fans, it’s not your fault.
In 2015, Carlton has become the most popular whipping boy in the AFL and over the past decade Melbourne has been the league’s favourite piñata. But in the context of AFL history both of those clubs have had much more tangible success than Richmond.
Since the re-naming of the VFL into the AFL in 1990, Carlton has made the finals 11 times and Melbourne has made nine appearances compared to Richmond’s four. Richmond has been the worst, least successful club since the dawn of the AFL and it’s not especially close.
The past two years were a cause for optimism among Tigers fans. There was reason to think that after more than three decades in the barren wilderness of ‘ninth or below’ that it might finally be time to take a swig from the fountain of relevance. An impressive record of 27 wins and 17 losses and back-to-back finals appearances with a young, developing team hinted that meaningful success might be around the corner.
Look a little closer, though, and much of Richmond’s good fortune in 2013 and 2014 was simply a mirage, with the Tigers making the finals both years by beating mediocrity, accumulating a 21-6 record against teams that didn’t make the eight.
Richmond isn’t a bad team. There’s a lot to be said for being able to take care of business against inferior opposition. However, while the Demons have spent the better part of a decade making a strong, depressing counter-argument, generally the leap from ‘bottom four’ to ‘eighth’ isn’t especially difficult. With the simple maturation of a playing group, that should occur naturally over three to five years as it has for Richmond.
The real challenge is jumping from ‘finals contender’ to ‘premiership contender’. There’s nothing to suggest Richmond is built to make that leap, and if anything, through the first five weeks of 2015 it looks like they’re going backwards.
The difficulty with Richmond is finding what their scope is for improvement. These Tigers are no longer cubs; they have the ninth oldest list in the competition. On the weekend against Geelong, even without Brett Deledio, Richmond had ten players line up with 100-plus games experience, the same amount as Hawthorn, and just one fewer than top four contenders North Melbourne and Port Adelaide. The Tigers had just seven players with less than 50 games played, in stark contrast to the two most exciting young Victorian teams, the Bulldogs and Collingwood, who had 14 and 12 respectively on the weekend. At this stage, the Tigers are what they are.
Richmond’s most glaring deficiency is a lack of quality key position depth. Alex Rance is an elite defender and Jack Riewoldt is still one of the most dangerous key forwards in the competition. The problem has been Richmond’s inability to supplement these two pillars of the spine with reliable options.
Tom Hawkins embarrassed David Astbury on the weekend, exposing Astbury’s lack of brawn in one-on-one contests. Ben Griffiths has emerged as a potential foil for Riewoldt, flashing intermittent star power with his pack marking and an agility that belies his size. But Griffiths remains a perpetual injury risk and accordingly missed the Geelong game with a calf injury. The less said about Griffiths’ replacement, Ty ‘Casboult’ Vickery, the better.
There are an inordinate amount of B to B+ players at Punt Road. Players like Brandon Ellis, Edwards, Nick Vlastuin, Anthony Miles, Dylan Grimes, Chris Newman, Paul Chaplin, Bachar Houli and Steven Morris are all perfectly respectable but none of them are game-breaking stars, not yet anyway. The supporting actors could be upgraded but they’re competent enough; perhaps a larger problem lies with the main cast.
In their 22 combined seasons, Brett Deledio, Dustin Martin and Trent Cotchin have a grand total of two All-Australian guernseys between them. By comparison, in 21 combined seasons Dane Swan and Scott Pendlebury have ten such selections.
Cotchin has regressed after establishing himself as a top ten player in the league during his phenomenal 2012 season. He hasn’t cracked even the 40-man All-Australian squad the past two years and of his eight three-vote performances across 2013 and 2014, seven of them came against Brisbane (twice), St Kilda (twice), Carlton (twice) and the Bulldogs (in Cotchin’s defence his one other three vote game was against Hawthorn). He’s fast on his way to earning a reputation as a flat-track bully, something that was not helped by his meek 16 touches in last year’s final against Port Adelaide.
Dustin Martin is a riddle wrapped inside a tattoo of an enigma. He has the raw talent of a generational star but his decision making ranges from ‘ingenious’ to ‘insufferable’. Brett Deledio is too talented of a player to have never polled more than 13 Brownlow votes in a season, and like Cotchin he goes missing in big games. Of the 18 games Richmond played against finalists in 2013 and 2014, Deledio polled Brownlow votes in just two of them.
Deledio, Martin and Cotchin are all fine football players – stars, even. But they’re not on the same level as Sam Mitchell, Jordan Lewis and Luke Hodge, or Josh Kennedy, Kieren Jack and Dan Hannebery, or Nat Fyfe, David Mundy and Stephen Hill.
Some might think it’s unfair to make those comparisons, but Deledio, Cotchin and Martin were taken 1, 2 and 3 in the draft – if those guys aren’t going to be your superstars, then who is? It’s a popular AFL-ism to say that you’re only as good as your bottom six, but sometimes it’s just as accurate to say that you’re only as good as your top three.
The state of affairs is bleak at Richmond. Eleven seasons without finals from 2002 to 2012 has given them nothing but three very good but not transcendent players, a perpetually frustrated Jack Riewoldt, a gun defender who might turn down millions and retire at the end of the season, and a supporting cast of role players who don’t suck. Damien Hardwick strikes me as the type of coach that was always destined to lead a fairy-tale journey to eighth spot before getting crushed by the reality of finals and the mythical monsters of ‘actual good teams’. That’s seems to be his ceiling, and it’s been reached.
Normally, I would implore Richmond fans to look on the bright side. Martin and Cotchin are only 24 and 25 – they still have a half-decade of their primes to make the leap. Rance likely isn’t going to turn down a monster contract. Brandon Ellis has the makings of a star, Anthony Miles looks like a Richmond lifer and there’s a 14 per cent chance that Reece Conca becomes the evolutionary Jordan Lewis. I could try and tell you to keep the faith and talk yourselves into all of this. But I’m not going to.
Richmond fans, it’s time to give up. Let go. Abandon any expectation of this football club. Tyler Durden is telling you that you’re only free to do anything when you’ve lost everything.
The Richmond Tigers have not gotten within 67 points of a grand final appearance since 1982, the same year that Raiders of the Lost Ark was first released in cinemas. It’s time to give up all hope and remove emotional investment from this team, because it’s not going anywhere. There’s something to be said for sticking with a club through good and through bad but that implies that there’s been some ‘good’ at some stage. Supporting Richmond has become an exercise in masochism.
Like Homer Simpson eating Pinchy the lobster, Richmond fans need to briefly embrace their pain and then just move on. The odds say that things will eventually get better, but ‘better’ seems as far away as it’s ever been. Until that stage arrives, Richmond fans have earned the right to abandon ship and then hop back on when the time for meaningful success has actually come. Some might call that bandwagon jumping. After three decades of unreasonable pain, misery and dejection, I call it being rational.
Jake
Guest
Great journalism NOT. Should be sacked for presenting a totally one sided view, obviously he is a Richmond hater, Good to see this explode in his face.
Milo
Roar Rookie
Went backwards on Friday. Disposal was horrendous. Cotchin nowhere near his best and Lids beaten. WIthout Dusty it wouldve been a slaughter. Need to keep playing some of that talent like McIntosh, C Ellis, Lennon, McDonough, McBean consistently now. Vickery should be a trade at year end and Grigg Chaplin Houli should be delisted. Maric is a warrior but he should be getting more help from Vickery, Griffiths and if he was playing, McBean.
Liam
Guest
we are improving we are starting to develop young players for example brandon ellis and kamdyn macintosh and corey ellis but if we dont finish in the top 6 this year hardwick should go also its hard not having a good ruck man our midfielders have to work twice has hard as normal because we have to shark everyone else taps as much as i hate to say it i think the mullet should go. our midfield is as good as any but your right we have the talent to be the best. we have a similar midfield to sydney swans except sydney have developed theres into stars and we just have very good players. so your right there. cotchin needs to get back to runner up brownlow form and deledio needs to find the pill more. also anthony miles needs to aspire to be like josh kennedy or ollie wines and be a great inside player
TurtleTomo
Guest
Hasn't this turned around
Milo
Roar Rookie
A lot of tiger supporters feel the same about that #17 issue. Its been a sore point but i guess most have taken a wait and see approach. Well, given that time has passed and the resuts arent there its something (the captaincy) that needs to be addressed at years end. Also see that Lennon has been dropped again this week after one week up. Sure he didnt set the world on fire but its also difficult to understand what the strategic thinking is about these guys who have the talent but are given one game only to prove themselves. Especially while the 'cruisers' keep getting games in the ones without scrutiny.
InvisiblePJs
Roar Rookie
The article mentions re: Cotchin - "He’s fast on his way to earning a reputation as a flat-track bully" - I would have thought that he has already got there! His output against the more respected teams is, on average, quite poor. Just as an aside (although I am not a Richmond supporter) he lost a lot of respect from me for refusing to uphold a burgeoning tradition at the club to adopt the number 17 guernsey when accepting the captaincy role. To me this is the mark of a person who puts more importance in himself rather than the team.
WhereIsGene
Guest
There's always hope Milo. Freo was a laughing stock for 20 years but turned it around under Ross the Boss. Actually he is exactly the sort of bloke Richmond needs, though who'd want to watch their team play Lyon's horrid gamestyle every week? I don't think Cotchin is up to it either. Captaincy is a burden for some, and Richmond can't afford to let it take his game backwards as he's by far their best onballer. Yes the club's bottom 6 players are spuds. With free agency & mature age drafting this can be rectified over the course or two or three seasons but the question is do players similar to Cooney, Dal Santo & Clark see Richmond as a destination club? Its a catch 22 but you need success to breed success unless you're prepared to pay overs, otherwise free agents will walk to top 4 teams for a shot at a flag or a club like Collingwood for the extra media exposure and endorsements. Richmond can turn it around, it wasn't so long ago Port was a basket case in every sense. But is Hardwick the man who can do it? I think he is, but maybe he can use a better brains trust. Even Clarkson struggled in 2009 & 2010 until Ratten came onboard.
WhereIsGene
Guest
Yes fair point Wilson. However look at how often Selwood carries Geelong, and the rest of their midfield is no better than Richmond's, perhaps worse. Cotchin reminds me of Marc Murphy - a fairly vanilla accumulator of the ball who can't shake a tag. There's very little X factor about either of them, and both are susceptible to physical intimidation. You could never say that about captains like Hodge, Selwood, or Pendlebury. Deledio strikes me as a lazy footballer, a real paycheck player who can't be bothered taking the next step. Martin is still young but has a pronounced attitude problem and discipline issues. Actually a lot of Richmond players do, the team has a reputation for being one of the loudest when it comes to trash-talking in the competition though I'm not sure exactly what they have to boast about. The entire club needs less faux-swagger and more worth ethic. After 30 years of nothing you'd think they'd be chomping at the bit and one of the fittest sides going around but instead they're looking sluggish and disinterested. If Hardwick isn't the one to inject some desperately needed professionalism into the club then I have no idea who is.
Winston
Guest
I have to strongly disagree on Derickx I'm afraid. I cringe every time I see him go near the grass oval (let alone the ball). What's with Aaron Edwards? At least before he could take contested marks, even if he didn't do much else. But I don't remember him doing even that since going to Tigers, and now he's gone.
Milo
Roar Rookie
Glad someone else sees it Franko, thought i was the only one. Not saying its the only reason, but they all add up.
Franko
Guest
Maric appears to be the only one who has improved as a footballer since moving to Richmond. Chaplin, Matt Thomas, Aaron Edwards, Hampson all seem to have stagnated or even gone backwards Whilst Schulz, Matt White, Nahas all have improved, hell even Tom Derickx looked like he might come on once leaving Tigerland. Hardwick may be the problem, but perhaps some heat should be coming on Tim Livingstone, Blair Hartley and dare I say it Choco Williams. The problems at Tigerland go much deeper than head coach.
Franko
Guest
"As an aside an example and at the risk of controversy, i think the club should whisper in Richo’s ear about maybe focusing solely on his media commitments for a year or two and not spending time down at Tigerland interviewing players and telling them theyre good. I love the bloke, but he seems to embody the ‘she’ll be right, great effort mate anyway’ type culture that we seem to have adopted over last 33 years" Spot on.
Milo
Roar Rookie
Dont agree re the draft. For some time the players that have been recruited can play football. Look at the result since Deledios year - Cotchin, Martin, Vlastuin, Conca, Ellis, Edwards, to name a few. The development or lack thereof seems to have let these players down moreso than the actual draft selection process.
Kaks
Roar Guru
"People think Richmond’s biggest problem is drafting, but it isn’t. Developing the talent on the list is where they’ve always failed hardest." I'd say its both. Looking at the series on the roar that happened last month where we "revisited the AFL Drafts" of each year, it was plain to see that RIchmond's recruitment was awful (see below for link to the series). And when they have gotten it right, like Deledio, they have not been able to develop him into an absolute superstar. He is a very good footballer and thats really it. http://www.theroar.com.au/2015/04/08/revisiting-the-2004-afl-draft/
slane
Guest
I really think people underestimate how long it takes to build a list. Melbourne are a young team and yet when they played against Richmond the Demons players averaged more games than the Richmond team. Richmond players had 1494 games experience (ave of 68 per player), Melbourne with 1818 (ave of 83 per player). Hawthorn are reigning premiers largely because of the stars they picked up in the 2001 and 2002 drafts. Freo are on fire right now and have a spine built around great players who are in their 30's. Richmond will never be contenders until they have a core of gun senior players who are pushing 30 and can show the next tier if players how to go about being an AFL player.
13th Man
Guest
haha sound like the life of a freo fan. still waiting lads...................is this year the year
Wilson
Roar Guru
Mick could be Available by then :}
Paul D
Roar Guru
Probably just a bit of frustration. It's understandable. You pretty much have to have developed Stockholm Syndrome to be a long term Richmond supporter.
Daws
Guest
I think give Hardwick to the end of this year to develop those younger players. But then it's time for a new coach. He doesn't appear to be able to compete against top 8 sides.
Winston
Guest
I don't think it's fair to say the 3 would be stars if the supporting cast is better. Look at Ablett, he got better after he went to the Suns! Or look at Fyfe and Buddy, I've already seen in this season where both players had 3 opposition players tackle them and they can still get out of it and do something productive with the ball. That itself has nothing to do with the supporting cast, but is what defines sheer starpower. If none of your draft picks 1, 2 or 3 can show it consistently when they're well into their mid-20s, then that's pretty sad. The article sure reads horrible, but I'm not sure what the last few paragraphs are trying to say. So you're calling for the most loyal fans in the country to disband and join another club?