Top spot in the Australian conference goes on the line when the struggling Reds host the resurgent Rebels in a crucial Super Rugby derby at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane. Join us here at 7:40pm (AEST) for live scores and commentary.
Before a ball had been kicked in anger in 2015, only the stupid and stupidly optimistic would have predicted the Melbourne Rebels would top the Australian Super Rugby conference.
But the Rebels travel to Brisbane to play the cellar-dwelling Queensland Reds knowing that a win will do just that – put them top of the pile in Australian rugby with only four rounds to play (although, with their immediate rivals for top billing, the Waratahs and Brumbies, still to play this weekend).
And they will come into this game high on confidence, having won four of their last five games – and the loss was an unlucky one to the champion Waratahs in Sydney. It’s the best winning run in their history.
But waiting for them in Brisbane will be a dangerous Reds outfit, who will have been stung this week by the sudden appointment of John Connolly as a coaching consultant. ‘Knuckles’ is exactly the sort of hard-headed character who should be able to shake the Reds out of their slump, and have them charging onto the Suncorp surface breathing fire.
It’s an intriguing match-up!
Key statistics
The Rebels are currently ranked No. 1 in Super Rugby for both average carries per game and rucks won, but last for lineout success, so they will likely look to retain possession, run their opponents off their feet and keep the ball in play.
The trick for the Reds will be scoring enough points to keep their opponents under pressure – they are currently ranked last or second last in Super Rugby for clean breaks, tries scored, points scored and goal kicking. Oh, and they are currently ranked last in Super Rugby for playing rugby, which is not ideal.
Prediction
This is an incredibly difficult game to pick. The Reds might be anchored to the bottom of the ladder, but they will surely lift in front of their home crowd, and it’s hard to know what effect having Connolly in the dressing room might have. I suspect they will be fired up.
Meanwhile, the Rebels are looking great and winning games, and travel to Brisbane buoyed by the news that young tearaway Jordy Reid has just committed to them by signing a new contract.
Form, statistics and common sense point to a Rebels win, but I have a sneaking suspicion that the Reds will be pumped for this one, and I am going to tip them in a close one.
Reds 1-12.
PeterK
Roar Guru
agree. Gill has been better than Hooper this year. Just behind Pocock IMO.
PeterK
Roar Guru
I agree except for Horwill.
steve
Guest
From that game and that game alone...the following Reds should be in the test 30. Slipper, Hanson, Holmes, Simmons, Horwell, Gill, Genia. O'connor
steve
Guest
For the life I can't understand why Gill is NOT mentioned in the same breath as other loose forwards including Pocock and Hooper. He has, for the entire season, been the best of the Reds. I understand he may decide to leave the Reds due to the Coach. I reckon Graham can be blamed for much of the ordinary performance of the team and individuals. Rugby like most sports is played well when one is confident and has belief in himself and his team. Graham maybe a nice guy, but he doesn't instill the belief and confidence.
Ruckin' Oaf
Guest
Have a read of the "No more excuses for Graham and the Reds" on this very same website. You'll see Graham blaming his players more than the once
Zero Gain
Guest
RG has been sidelined and the Reds have a huge win. Add it up Mick, can you work it out mate?
Mike
Guest
Well done Reds, great to see. Shame for the Rebels though.
Bfc
Guest
Surely, after the 2011 debacle when Pocock got injured early with no back up 7, NO RWC supquad will ever contain only one 7? And I hope that Rob C etc are correct...Cheika will be gold rather than blue when he finalises the selections. On current form, Gill is ahead of Hooper....
PeterK
Roar Guru
RobC - I actually agree with the reds attack pattern it is a lot harder to defend against and works against all defensive patterns, it should be plan A IMO with 1 caveat. The caveat is it takes too long to learn and I doubt the Wallabies have the time to learn it. The Wallabies certainly have better players to execute it. Defence has been the reds biggest issue , and still was allowing rebels 4 tries. That and picking players in the wrong positions, Connolly has fixed that part. Agree Gill is a very good 7 , just behind Pocock.
RobC
Roar Guru
Agree Pete. Can add SeanMc to the list of 6s ahead of Gill. But at seven, Gill is hard to beat, esp when an uptempo game is needed. Gotta to say this. Am Im probably going to get flamed for it. I think the Reds attack format is a good alternative (Plan B) to Cheikball. Can call it Richball. If it doesnt work, you can call it D1ckball :lol:
Rugby stu
Guest
I don't know about hunt at 13, didn't look that good, I wonder if Feuai-sautia would be better at 13 he looked great last night, Hunt really lacks size/strength and I thought his defense was bit poor.
PeterK
Roar Guru
or even lose nothing
jeznez
Roar Guru
It's Two-Dads's mum they need to reach out to.
Dandaman
Roar Rookie
I hope they gave Gill man the match. He was a standout for them again. He has turned into a very complete player. We would loose nothing if he made the wallabies.
jeznez
Roar Guru
Pete, I agree about only one 7 in the 23. I was thinking of two for the 31. In that circumstance McMahon or Hodgson as a back up gives some really good options squad wise. They would be fine to spell Pocock in some of the matches or in an emergency. Don't want to take anything away from Gill, he played a blinder last night.
jeznez
Roar Guru
Played 6 to Pocock's 7 for a long time. Ideally only used as a back up 7 but he has spent plenty of time in the other backrow spots.
Hello
Roar Rookie
I agree Peter they are a much better option at 6. I was just talking about if you are wanting to play 2 sevens that is best best balance I have been able to come up with.
PeterK
Roar Guru
Hello - I agree about balance. For that reason I would much prefer Timani, Fardy, Higginbotham even Jones at 6 ahead of Gill at 6. All better options at lineout and more diversity with Pocock at 7. Fardy is lineball but he can call lineouts as well so that means Simmons does not have to be at lock.
Hello
Roar Rookie
RobC and PeterK I have always looked at the loose forwards as having to be balanced. It would not worry me play 2 traditional 7s as long as the back 3 are balanced. It would worry me more to be playing hooper and poey as neither are a line out option and I like to have 4 that can jump. A back row of Gill, Poey and higgers gives you the lo options but I am not sure if they would be strong enough in the rucks. It is the best balance I have been able to come up with though to have 2 traditional 7s starting
RobC
Roar Guru
Pete, I agree on almost all points, including about the 23 The only point I disagree is about Cheika. I expect him to be an Aussie before a NSWman, and will make the appropriate decision.