Normal programming resumes as the Blues and Cats face off in this week’s Friday night football.
Will he or won’t he? That seems to be the question on the footy world’s lips right now. Will embattled Carlton hovercraft pilot and full-time team mascot Charlie Carlton return to the driver’s seat in this week’s pre-game fan engagement operation?
Oh you thought I was talking about Mick. He’s not going anywhere apparently. This week’s press conference was a notch away from Malthouse being on a rocking chair, rolled up newspaper in hand, shouting ‘get off my lawn’.
I kid, I kid.
Before we get into this week’s game, let’s check on last week’s Friday Night Forecast.
Prediction: Essendon def. North Melbourne by 18 points.
Actual: Essendon def. by North Melbourne by 11 points.
Bonus prediction: both sides score more than 100 points.
Actual: neither side scored more than 100 points.
Did I ever tell you I don’t gamble? Last week is a perfect example of why. Something is really wrong with the Dons, and it centres on their forward line – or lack thereof. Twenty-two scores on 54 inside 50s versus 28 scores on 51 inside 50s largely tells the tale of this one.
To be sure, they’re missing Paul Chapman, Adam Cooney, Jason Winderlich and David Zaharakas – handy set of small to medium forwards there – but if Essendon don’t sort it out soon they’ll be looking at an early vacation. Switzerland is nice around September, I’ve been told.
Here’s this week’s Friday Night Forecast.
Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats
Friday, 22 May
Bouncedown: 7:50PM (EST)
Ethiad Stadium, Melbourne, Victoria
It’s Friday night, so you know what that means! It’s time to watch Carlton lose by 10 goals or more!
So far this season, the Friday night slot has resulted in an average percentage boost for the victor of 27 percentage points. That’s about four times the average AFL game. A big part of that has been Carlton’s conquerors, who’ve managed to win by margins of 27 points (ok not too bad), 69 points (bad), and 75 points (very bad).
This is the Blues’ fourth week-opening engagement of the year, and guess what? They’ve got three more to come over the rest of the year! Will they go 0-7? I thought Gil’s policy was (and I quote) to have the best product on a Friday night?
Anyhow, this game looks quite straight down the line, with the Cats not quite out of lives yet and looking a little better in recent weeks. But it’s clear they are one of this season’s middle-of-the-road, fighting-for-the-eight sides, that can beat up on the bottom four, be plus or minus 30 points against other mid table teams, and get smacked by the better sides.
Last weekend, Sydney smacked Geelong in the final quarter, with Geelong adding 15 points and Sydney adding 45. Prior to that the Cats had played Sydney close for the whole night, never having, or allowing, a period of outright dominance.
That’s not going to happen on Friday.
Carlton have been slowly getting worse on a weekly basis, culminating in last weekend’s evisceration at the hands of the Giants. GWS had 40 scoring shots in that game, the most that any side managed to hit so far this year, and did so on 80 inside 50s, which is, again, the single game record so far this year.
Yuck.
It isn’t going to be pretty, it’s a case of picking your margin. The Cats have been quite poor on offence to this point (ranked in the bottom six for offensive efficiency) but they may remedy that tonight.
Geelong to win by 66 points.
That’s my Friday Night Forecast. What’s yours?
Paul D
Roar Guru
Geez, I miscalculated that one. Carlton really are garbage.
Macca
Guest
Where is Gene - If you can explain to me why Carrazzo was replaced by Warnock I'll agree that it's a case of Mick having little to work with!
WhereIsGene
Guest
Macca when you talk about Mick making mistakes at the selection table I get a mental picture of the Titanic's interior decorators choosing the wrong colors for the deck chairs.
WhereIsGene
Guest
You must either be a Saints fan or a very strange chap Ryan. The good thing to come of Gill giving Carlton so many Friday night games is it puts even more heat on Mick by throwing a spotlight on the team's failures. Ironically his reaction to opposition goals in the coaching box will probably be more entertaining than the actual contests!
Dean
Guest
Of course Geelong have been poor on offence, they've played Fremantle, Hawthorn and Sydney already.
Macca
Guest
Dylan C - for the last 2 weeks Gibbs has had 8 tackles and averages 6 tackles a game (which includes a 0 against Collingwood). Last week he had 10 clearances and averages 5 per week - it isn't his effort that is letting him down - it is the game style which is disposal light and stoppage heavy. This especially impact the 180cm 80kg Murphy who is constantly in stoppages against players he give up 10cm & 10kg to.
Macca
Guest
Yep - and we have spent zero time discussing the main point - that for his age and experience Docherty is having a bloody good year and the small deficiency of occasionally kicking the ball away is far outweighed by all his good work. PS Nice rethink on that last post by the way ;)
TomC
Roar Guru
Cool. And now it's over.
Macca
Guest
True - I can say that Docherty average 2 clangers a game if that helps but again I don't think the occasion poor kick is enough to say that he hasn't been a good player for the blues this year.
Ryan Buckland
Expert
One number I'd love to see get out into the public domain on this front is kick retention rates - how often does a player's kick end up in the hands of another player on his team. That would add some value to these kinds of discussions.
Macca
Guest
Cam "because the team spreads so well and creates the loose man so effectively, their DE’s get the chance to be higher with little to no risk" Do you think this really applies to Docherty playing at Carlton at the moment?
Macca
Guest
TomC - Don't complain about "this argument again" you are the one choosing to have it. Initially I raised disposal efficiency as almost an aside while defending Docherty focusing more on him leading the blues for kicks, intercept marks and uncontested possessions while being second in metres gained and suggested he would be leading the B&F to this point and pointed out given his age and experience this was a good effort - you then focused on DE. I then accepted DE was flawed but went with the undramatic statement Docherty "uses the ball pretty well" and again you choose to focus on DE - talk about arguing the little points.
Cameron Rose
Expert
I keep waiting for Carlton to show the spirit and tenacity from last year, when they were often outclassed but not out-fought. Yet they seem to be going the other way. Each week, I keep thinking they've hit rock bottom and are due to rebound, but it hasn't been the case yet.
Cameron Rose
Expert
And also, players in the back half get more of a chance to switch to a completely free player, kicking under no pressure, so get to hit several of these targets a match to increase their DE. Gibson and Birchall at the Hawks are an example of this. Yes, they are good kicks anyway, as they almost all are at the Hawks, but because the team spreads so well and creates the loose man so effectively, their DE's get the chance to be higher with little to no risk.
TomC
Roar Guru
Ugh. This argument again. No it doesn't show that, because in spite of it being clearly and obviously wrong, long kicks or even mid-range kicks to contests are generally counted as efficient stats. Something else that's particularly relevant for Docherty is that players who get most of their touches in the back half tend to have better disposal efficiency stats. Without bothering to look I'll bet that Sam Rowe also has pretty good DE, despite him being a very average ball user. DE is almost totally useless. Alarm bells start ringing when certain players dip below 60% across a meaningful length of time, but otherwise it should be totally ignored.
Macca
Guest
TomC - Ball retention? is that why we just bomb it forward out of stoppages? And I know you don't like the disposal efficiency stat but even accepting that it is flawed it still shows Docherty uses the ball pretty well in general. And even if he kicks the ball away a bit often the rest of his performance in a poor team with such inexperience is still a reason to be hopeful.
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
Cats by a 1000. GO THE CATS!
13th Man
Guest
120 points. Carlton are poo
TomC
Roar Guru
Actually I think Malthouse's gameplan these days is mostly about ball retention. I suspect part of their strategy is getting the ball in the hands of one of a small group of players before clearing, Docherty being one of those. Simpson is another, and I think he'll make a difference tonight. Please don't quote disposal efficiency stats at me. You should know by now what I think about that stat.
DylanC
Roar Rookie
I agree the game plan isn’t great, but even the greatest game plan counts for little if the players don’t put in the effort or have the will and desire to win. It has to start with Murphy and Gibbs, they are the leaders of the club. Gibbs is a shadow of the player we seen last year and Murphy’s not far behind. If they’re not showing the sheer desire to win and putting their body on the line, why would the rest of the team? That said I think we will finally see a much needed response tonight, they have to! The addition of Simpson will help. I just don’t think it will be enough for Carlton to get over the line though.