Springboks or All Blacks to win Rugby Championship

By The Saint / Roar Guru

South Africa or New Zealand are the best bets to win this year’s diluted Rugby Championship. However, it will not be an indicator for the World Cup.

However, it will be a good opportunity to see where teams are at in terms of personnel, style of play and game-day approach. There is also room for experimenting with combinations, as has previously happened.

In previous World Cup years, the reigning champion of the southern hemisphere competition has never gone on to win the Webb Ellis trophy. In 1999, 2003 and 2007 the All Blacks were Tri-Nations champions but in those years the world tournament was won by Australia, England and South Africa, respectively.

Australia won the 2011 Tri-Nations yet New Zealand won the World Cup that same year.

Of the competing nations for the shortened Rugby Championship this year, Australia have the most favourable draw. They don’t travel to either South Africa or New Zealand – they play the All Blacks at Eden Park for Bledisloe Cup purposes only – and their only championship away game is in Argentina.

Despite that, the battle for southern hemisphere supremacy and bragging rights heading into the world tournament in England is likely to be between the Springboks and All Blacks. Those two look more settled than the Wallabies and Los Pumas.

I’m picking Australia and Argentina to lose at least one home game each, or maybe losing both their games at home.

The outcome of the South Africa-New Zealand match in Johannesburg next week may go a long way towards determining the eventual southern hemisphere champion.

With that in mind, most – if not all – the teams should and will use the southern championship as a means of preparation. It’s a chance to trial new combinations and personnel, as well as tactics.

Wallabies mentor Michael Cheika has most to gain as he is still relatively new to the international coaching scene, and the current squad is the first he has selected.

The green and gold squad that toured Europe at the end of last year was picked by his predecessor Ewen McKenzie and his co-selectors before being dumped, and Cheika was swiftly brought in to take over from the beleaguered coach.

Cheika’s first team announcement will show his first hand.

While the southern hemisphere championship is still important, players and coaches may not feel hoisting aloft the trophy this year will be as rewarding as customary.

The Crowd Says:

2015-07-17T23:29:32+00:00

Bruce Peters

Roar Rookie


Or try to have him killed!

2015-07-17T04:03:00+00:00

Kuruki

Roar Guru


Yes i am. Do you not recall him making the same failed bid last time with Ali Williams? Ali was selected on past deeds also, things he done years before were the catalist for his selection even though he had shown nothing to be selected on merit. It was the wrong decision. Hansen is not perfect, he has an outstanding talent pool to work with and it's only human nature to develop relationships with people that can often lead to decisions being affected by other influences even if you don't realise it is happening. Hansen and co were aware of this, that is why they brought in Grant Fox to give them an opinion from the outside (so to speak) looking in. However Fox seems to have become more internal then it was supposed to be and i feel they should actually have brought in someone else once again from outside the group a fresh face without those close personal relationships with the players. Charlie Piutau imo was the best right wing in the world when he had his stint on the wing for the All Blacks, how does Dagg, someone who has not been at that elite level since 2012, come into the discussion, when we have Ben Smith and Charlie Piutau on the squad sheet?. Dagg was outstanding in 2011 that's a long long time ago, you can argue he was good in 2012 but it's a far stretch to say he has dished up All Black quality since then. The last thing we need is to go through another Ali Williams saga again, the writing is on the wall, you guys are asking Dagg to lift to a level he has not reached for years in a handfull of games, that is clutching at straws. We already have Mealamu who is in by default because nobody else has put there hand up. The same can be said with Romano, he is not playing All Black level rugby, but he is there by default because they lost the other similar style player to injury, Tuipolotu. If Cruden was fit there would be no room for Dan Carter. Barret, Cruden and Slade have had recent form. I don;t rate Carter today as All Black quality, not since Grant Fox have we had a 10 start for the All Blacks that lacks the ability to run the ball. There is no need for Dagg to be in this team, we have players screaming out for selection and have ample cover with Slade, Barret, Skudder,Smith,Piutau. This argument was taking place when Dagg was the fresh face and Mills was slowing down, imagine if back then Mills was given the benefit of the doubt on past deeds.....

2015-07-17T01:59:33+00:00

Harry Jones

Expert


To be continued

2015-07-17T00:43:38+00:00

Harry Jones

Expert


Sheek: So let me tell you a sad story. It's so sad it might make you Blue. It's not Bull. Once upon a time there were six young fine lineout leaping locks who were poised to be ready for 2015 World Cup glory. Willemse, Shickerling, Hargreaves, Ruan Botha, Lewies, and Mostert. But there was one really incredible young lock: PSDT. He was so good--like QC and AAC and JdV and BOD--only initials were seemly enough to refer to him. Fast enough to be a flank. Hands the size of hams. Strong enough to be a prop (in a land not Down Under). Able to go 80:00. Huge vertical leap. So, the coach said to his old friend Matfield: unretire. Teach this lad. All your tricks. So ol' Vic started running again and came back. Just to get PSDT ready to join Eben E in the WC. But calamity struck. PSDT was injured and injured and injured. In the meantime, Vic had got in shape. And one by one the other locks either left for € or £ or ¥. Or were hurt. And all the sudden there were only four games before the WC. And so we had ... Lood

2015-07-17T00:29:56+00:00

Harry Jones

Expert


Carr and Kolisi aren't competing for the blindside position. They're more openside/8s.

2015-07-17T00:11:47+00:00

sheek

Roar Guru


Harry, Matfield is 38 this year. i know the guy's a legend, locking the all-time Boks scrum with the immortal Frik du Preez, but seriously - still in the top XV at 38? What does this say about the young lock talent in the Republic?

2015-07-16T10:57:01+00:00

Sylvester

Guest


I see Ellis as a "Plan B" halfback option - when you want to keep it tight and are trying to avoid a brain explosion. Say, a World Cup final, when you're ahead by 1 point with 10 minutes to go...

2015-07-16T09:47:55+00:00

Old Bugger

Guest


On the contrary Kiwi....I think every AB player in the 41-man squad, will be giving it their best shot to impress and make the final 31. Hansen knows this will happen but his concern is whether the chosen players in the run-on side over these next 4-5weeks, can concentrate on playing together or not....that, I understand is his major concern with these next 4 tests. He can choose his best sides or he can mix and match to review combinations etc....in the end, he still has 41 fit, uninjured and talented players vying for 31 positions. The thrust of these next 4 tests IMO, will be how well the selections for each test will play together; how well they collectively react when the opposition are dominating; all at the same time showing that they're ready for RWC selection with minds on the job to increase their opportunities, decrease their errors and play as a champion team instead of, a team of champions. If the SBs, WBs or even the Pumas are successful over the ABs in the RC, then it's not a cause to be concerned about leading into the RWC - in fact, as we have witnessed on many previous occasions, it is from such losses that the ABs, seem to lift themselves and learn the lessons particularly when the players themselves, can identify and acknowledge areas to improve, from that last meeting. A favourite mantra of Ted Henry's was "you learn more from losing, than you do from winning..." I'm sure Hansen has it tucked away somewhere in the old grey matter also.

2015-07-16T08:51:25+00:00

Jerry

Guest


I think the reasoning behind not selecting Ellis is that his delivery and clearance is too slow to play the style they want. And it's gotten slower.

2015-07-16T08:39:11+00:00

Taylorman

Guest


Funny, I had a dream it went that way...except Barrett was Cruden, and sapoaga was a Beaver, and Ritchie had one eye...oh, and the Irish were speaking French!...terrible it was...

2015-07-16T08:33:02+00:00

Taylorman

Guest


Don't think that's fair kuruki, or are you including Hansen in the group that can't separate himself from his sporting hero? I don't see how you don't get it. Hansen has three more tests to finalise his squad. In Dagg he has a performer who at some point in his career has excelled for the All Blacks at the very top level on many occasions. He is still 26 and has not had a lot of good rugby either due to form and/ or injury. Dagg has some skills that no other All Black has and at his very best was a better fullback than Ben Smith has been to date. Given that, he wants to use these matches to allow Dagg the chance to find that form, because if he does, it means we have a valuable weapon. And you just want to cut him off at the knees now and move on. Well, I'm afraid I'm with Hansen on this one, hero or not.

2015-07-16T08:22:20+00:00

Jerry

Guest


Because he was (and probably still is) the best right wing in NZ too. We don't lose much with Smith at wing, in fact we may gain something as he seems to be a bigger try scoring threat there.

2015-07-16T08:12:39+00:00

Kuruki

Roar Guru


Ben Smith has been the best fullback in NZ for the past 24+ months, how people are still contemplating him being on the wing is head scratching. It shows people can't distance themselves enough from their sporting heroes to look at things objectively.

2015-07-16T07:50:16+00:00

Jerry

Guest


It's not really a straight comparison of Dagg v Smith at fullback. Smith is our best fullback. BUT - he's also our best right wing. And there's an argument to be made that he's been more of a threat for the AB's when playing on the wing. So it's not Dagg v Smith, it's actually FB Dagg v RW Piutau/Jane/NMS/Naholo etc. And that's nowhere near as cut and dried an argument.

2015-07-16T07:41:59+00:00

Kuruki

Roar Guru


Like i said the best 12 should be selected in that jersey. Nonu is the form 12 in NZ and he should be starting there, if you want to experiment with another 13 when we already have Smith and Fekitoa then it should be SBW moving out not Nonu. Why weaken two positions when you don't need to? What i mean by that is having 12 Sbw 13 Nonu Neither position is full strength, switching them around we have our best 12 and a makeshift 13 that makes more sense to me.

2015-07-16T07:24:26+00:00

Kuruki

Roar Guru


Dagg hasn't played to his potential for longer then 2 years. he has not played better rugby then Ben Smith for the same period, why should he be our starting fullback? It makes no sense.

2015-07-16T05:06:41+00:00

Kiwi

Guest


Boks will win the RC. The ABs will struggle to turn up properly prepared, much like in 2011. Which is dangerous because it'll give the Boks confidence I'd prefer to see them not have. I also think it will be a pretty scrappy affair all round, which is a bit of a shame.

2015-07-16T01:53:25+00:00

canadiankiwi

Guest


Add to the above list: Messam, Vito, Crockett and Ben Franks, who are all thirty something with lots of test experience.

2015-07-15T22:23:32+00:00

Council

Guest


No he isn't. He might not get a spot, but he is in the mix.

2015-07-15T22:11:17+00:00

Gonzo

Guest


If history is the indicator, I hope the WB's win the RC ;p Then we wait for Carter to be injured, Barrett to be injured, Slade to be injured in the final, and then Sopoaga comes on and kicks the ABs to a 21- 3 point victory over Ireland, scoring all the points.

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