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South Africa or New Zealand are the best bets to win this year’s diluted Rugby Championship. However, it will not be an indicator for the World Cup.
However, it will be a good opportunity to see where teams are at in terms of personnel, style of play and game-day approach. There is also room for experimenting with combinations, as has previously happened.
In previous World Cup years, the reigning champion of the southern hemisphere competition has never gone on to win the Webb Ellis trophy. In 1999, 2003 and 2007 the All Blacks were Tri-Nations champions but in those years the world tournament was won by Australia, England and South Africa, respectively.
Australia won the 2011 Tri-Nations yet New Zealand won the World Cup that same year.
Of the competing nations for the shortened Rugby Championship this year, Australia have the most favourable draw. They don’t travel to either South Africa or New Zealand – they play the All Blacks at Eden Park for Bledisloe Cup purposes only – and their only championship away game is in Argentina.
Despite that, the battle for southern hemisphere supremacy and bragging rights heading into the world tournament in England is likely to be between the Springboks and All Blacks. Those two look more settled than the Wallabies and Los Pumas.
I’m picking Australia and Argentina to lose at least one home game each, or maybe losing both their games at home.
The outcome of the South Africa-New Zealand match in Johannesburg next week may go a long way towards determining the eventual southern hemisphere champion.
With that in mind, most – if not all – the teams should and will use the southern championship as a means of preparation. It’s a chance to trial new combinations and personnel, as well as tactics.
Wallabies mentor Michael Cheika has most to gain as he is still relatively new to the international coaching scene, and the current squad is the first he has selected.
The green and gold squad that toured Europe at the end of last year was picked by his predecessor Ewen McKenzie and his co-selectors before being dumped, and Cheika was swiftly brought in to take over from the beleaguered coach.
Cheika’s first team announcement will show his first hand.
While the southern hemisphere championship is still important, players and coaches may not feel hoisting aloft the trophy this year will be as rewarding as customary.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.