The toss at the Oval on Thursday is crucial and will point to the current temperament and character of both captains.
Logic says win the toss and bat, but with overcast conditions and some humidity about will Alastair Cook be tempted to put the embattled Australians in if he wins?
Alternatively will Michael Clarke, in his last hurrah, consider protecting his fragile middle order (and himself) and hope his tired bowlers can wield some magic if he wins?
Or will he take the true and tested method of trying to get runs on the board? Cricket logic and the baggy green way say he should.
The Oval is usually a place for runs, in five first-class games this season 5245 runs have been scored at 38 runs per wicket. But there is only a marginal difference between batting first or second.
In fact the average for second innings scores is slightly higher at 404 compared to 373. This could be a clincher for Cook, especially if the overcast conditions come as predicted.
My guess is that Cook, with his newly found aggressive mojo, will insert the Aussies if he wins. What does he have to lose? Certainly not the series, and his batsman may still get the better of conditions on Friday and Saturday even if the Aussies are able to build a score.
This surely creates a conundrum for the departing Clarke.
In true Aussie nature there may be part of him that wants to take England on and bat first, not least to show he is leading from the front in his last Test.
But it could be that his fighting spirits have gone and ‘Pup’ the Street Fighter is no more.
If I was placing bets I suspect Clarke will want to protect himself and his fragile line-up against Jimmy Anderson and Stuart Broad.
He will desperately want runs in his last Test as part of his legacy. A legacy that is a good one but still coloured by his polarising character it would seem.
On that basis he may well take the selfish path and bat second so he can best protect his legacy, with the hope of scoring a big one and proving to a doubting Aussie public they really should have loved him more.
Either way, it will be interesting to see who zigs and who zags when the coin drops. Of course all bets may be off if the sun is shining.
But if it is overcast and Clarke wins and bats, it may show he is really a baggy green believer, but if he wins and bowls his egoism may have got the better of him.
AlanKC
Guest
I wonder if Alastair is wishing he'd been more idiotic and conformist and less intelligent at the toss?
SP
Guest
Ah good ole' birdy. The Roars resident Perpetually Outraged Pom doesn't disappoint with his pathological insecurity about Australia. Those decades of ritual humiliation at the hands of Australia certainly took their toll on the lad.
Gav
Guest
Except from Birdy......
Nudge
Guest
Very clever Alan. 70 odd million there though so considering there's only 1 you know what on here you'd have to say there a pretty good lot.
Brendon
Guest
The ECB must have more money if they're willing to prepare green pitches where the test will end in 2 days
Brendon
Guest
"Logic says win the toss and bat". No, idiocy and conformity says that. Headingley 2010 against Pakistan and Edgbaston 2015 proves that. I think anyone pointing out Ponting bowling first at Edgbaston in 2005 should be punched in the face. Ponting bowled first at Edgbaston 2005 and we lost by 2 run. Clarke batted first at Edgbaston 2015 and we lose by 8 wickets. I wouldn't be surprised if Clarke won the toss and batted first. It could be humid, overcast but dry and sunny forecast for days 2-5 and an absolute green top but Clarke, like Ponting, isn't intelligent to think outside the box.
Hutchoman
Roar Pro
The only (I believe) instance of a Test innings being declared at 0/0 was in the infamous England v SA match going back about 15 years ago. The SA captain was one W.J. Cronje.
Dexter The Hamster
Guest
You took the words right out of my mouth/keyboard.
Casper
Guest
Never liked Clarke, the person, but it's demonstrably unfair to bag his overall record as a batsman and captain. Just that image of blonde tipped locks, bingle on his arm and later history of hastening the end of careers for guys like Mike Hussey that polarises opinion.
Dave Richardson
Roar Guru
Hi Ozinsa, the article is a little tongue in cheek but the toss may something about where Clarke is at. I am also English so really hoping however the toss goes Australia bat
Phil
Guest
So let me get this straight. If Cook bowls first, he's aggressive and playing to win. If Clarke bowls first, he's hiding himself and his middle order and not playing the "baggy green way"?
goodfella
Guest
Just read that Clarke is predicting the Test to finish inside of 3 days, regardless of who wins the toss. I'm all for outright results in Tests but the current trend for 3-4 days Tests (or less) is getting ridiculous. Makes me wonder if, into the future, broadcasters might think twice about paying as much for the broadcast rights. Nine have paid to broadcast a potential 25 days of Test cricket for the current Ashes. Realistically they must have hoped to have somewhere around 20 days of play to air. If this last match is wrapped up inside of 3 days, the whole series will have been played out inside of 15. That can't be a good thing for Nine in terms of overall ratings and attracting advertisers into the future.
Rich_UK
Guest
I really hope the Aussies win the toss and bowl. I could see England then scoring 250-300 and then will watch with joy as the Aussies get skittled for 30 and 70.
spruce moose
Guest
He'll bat. Cook will either put him in, or Clarke will elect to bat. He knows nothing else.
AREH
Roar Guru
People mention this a lot has it ever actually happened recently or, if ever? Or is it more just to highlight how green the wicket is and all you'd want to do is bowl? Im genuinely wondering haha
Pope Paul vii
Guest
What are you talking about Birdy? Our blokes walk may not have matched their talk but this series has not featured petulance, unpleasantness or hissy fits.
madmonk
Guest
Damn those marketing people. Forcing us to watch cricket we don't want to watch.
Wayne
Roar Guru
Sounds like the pitch will be greener than the hulk. Bowl first and declare your first innings at 0/0 and bowl again kind of pitch
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Haha too true
Targa
Guest
As a Kiwi I'd certainly like to have us playing more tests too! It was a great (albeit far too short) series. Regarding the Ashes, I am wondering why the author of this piece thinks it would be aggressive and positive if Cook wins the toss and bowls, but selfish and egoisticial if Clarke does likewise.