The first elimination final of the NRL finals this weekend sees the Canterbury Bulldogs take on the St George Illawarra Dragons, and while the Dragons have been written off from all corners, I can see a massive upset occurring.
The Dragons have been in bad – no, let’s change that – absolutely disgusting form lately and were lucky to scrape into the finals.
It’s a far cry from the halfway point in the season, when they were the surprise packets sitting on top of the ladder.
As a fan of the club, it was then incredibly hard to watch them fall. They lost seven games in a row – including to the likes of the Parramatta Eels and the Cronulla Sharks – and didn’t look like challenging anyone in the comp.
While the other games during the losing streak came against the Canterbury Bulldogs, Sydney Roosters, North Queensland Cowboys, South Sydney Rabbitohs and the Melbourne Storm – which are by no stretch of the imagination easy games – it was the way they were getting beaten that was most worrying for the fans, and coach Paul McGregor.
Their attack didn’t look like registering a point and their defence didn’t look like stopping many from coming in. It was a horrific period of time.
Since the end of that losing streak, the Dragons have regathered enough form to barely scrape into the finals off the back of some horrible losses by the Manly Sea Eagles against the Eels and Roosters.
However, they also recorded impressive wins against out-of-form teams missing the eight, such as the New Zealand Warriors and Newcastle Knights. For a short period of time it looked like that magic touch was coming back before they took on the Penrith Panthers and won in one of the worst games of the season.
They then proceeded to lose to the Gold Coast Titans before taking out a nail-biter against the Wests Tigers last Saturday to qualify for the finals.
The Tigers game, despite the final scoreline and allowing Wests back in in the final 20 minutes, had a lot more promise for the Dragons. Their attack looked to be clicking and their defence, albeit against poor attack, was firing on all cylinders for the majority of the game.
The Dragon scored 32 points without their key attacking weapon, Gareth Widdop, who should return for Week 1 of the finals when the Dragons again travel to ANZ Stadium in Homebush to take on the Bulldogs.
I can only think that being written off – both here on The Roar, in wider media circles and even on social media by their own fans – is a good thing for the team. They were first earlier in the season and while it is easy to forget that based on recent form, they will be keen to prove a point by going deep into the finals.
You also have to remember that the Dragons beat the Bulldogs once earlier in the season, and were it not for some very dubious refereeing decisions, could have done it twice. The Dragons haven’t been that far behind the Bulldogs this season.
It’s also worth remembering the Bulldogs have had an up-and-down, roller-coaster season. Based on their last two games, where they were almost beaten by the Knights and then the Warriors, it is easy to forget that like the Dragons they have had some good games this season.
Who could forget their demolition of the Rabbitohs a few weeks ago?
However the Bulldogs have been inconsistent at best this season, and if they put on a display like they have for the last two weeks could struggle to match it with a Dragons side playing to their potential.
So how do the Dragons actually beat the Bulldogs? Follow the formula that worked early in the season, with a few tweaks.
Finals footy is all about winning the battle in the middle. The difference between these two forward packs is the size – the Bulldogs are a huge pack. It is a massive advantage. So the Dragons’ much faster, more mobile pack must run them around and let their attacking players gel with repeated pressure on the Bulldogs’ goal-line.
With the likes of Widdop, Benji Marshall, and Josh Dugan running around, a try could come from anywhere, and repeated pressure on the Bulldogs line will lead to this. The Dragons are a leading team for most forced drop outs this season, and it will be the way to mount pressure on a Bulldogs pack which tires easily.
A high-paced game is key for the Dragons.
Their second-row combination is also crucial. Joel Thompson and Tyson Frizell are two of the best in the game, and Frizell’s combination with Marshall at times this year has been brilliant. If they can build pressure and then have that combination unleash, the Bulldogs will have a very hard time keeping the Dragons out.
The Dragons could well cause one of the biggest upsets of the 2015 NRL finals on Saturday night.
The bottom line is, I would not be writing off the Dragons just yet!
Follow Scott on Twitter @sk_pryde
jamesb
Guest
Well Dragons are not the worst team to make the finals. They have notched up wins over Canterbury, Cronulla, Brisbane and the Roosters this year. The problem for the Dragons is the style of play is not attractive, and I think that puts terrible misconceptions from opposition fans with regards to the standard of the Dragons team. The Dragons spine can be very good on their day with Dugan, Widdop, Benji and Rein. Rein is having his best season. Dragons have a pretty good backrow in Thompson, Frizzel, and Merrin. And some other handy players like Ah Mau, Creagh, Cooper, Nightingale and young Aitken. Sure, its a squad that is short on winning a premiership. We do need a couple of big forwards and one or two classy outside backs.But to call it the worst side to ever make it, is a lack of respect.
Scott Pryde
Expert
I can hardly remember the game I was so young. All I can remember is Benji smashing us to bits and the Dragons blocking all the media after the game. Firzell is an exceptional player. I mean you have to remember that three months ago he was being talked about for NSW. If he can get back to that, with that right hand side the Bulldogs rather large pack will struggle to slow us down. Should be a good game. A lot closer than everyone reckons Jason.
Scott Pryde
Expert
Yes Hodkinson is out for the rest of the season. Hasler could have a massive influence on the game but I reckon Mary is a pretty good coach himself. I mean this team were suppose to win the spoon this year.
Jason Hosken
Roar Guru
Wow - I'd forgotten about that Drags v Tiges semi clash, that was an epic game to watch as a neutral..major upset! Gee Scott, you're right about the Dragons right edge on paper. Frizell was monstering the comp in the early rounds and is a perfect example of the marathon that is the NRL - looking back, he was the pace setter for the early rounds. Saints look too tired to run the Dogs ragged for 80 but if they can hang in there the Dogs are prone to errors and may miss Hodkinson's level head at the death. Here's to finals footy!!
Michael
Guest
Isn't Hodkinson out this game? Without him the bulldogs might struggle with attack and Dragons could get the better of them. Having said that it's hard to go past Des Hasler's men. The coach knows best when it comes to semi finals. I think Bulldogs will have this but it'll probably be closer then what people expect.
Scott Pryde
Expert
Haha thanks Jason, Unlucky for your mob from Manly to miss out. Had me hanging on the edge of my seat for the last couple of rounds. I thought Joel Thompson was supposed to be back. I could be wrong though now you mention it. Either way Frizell is the key. If he can get back to where he was then it will be all systems go for the Dragons right side attack. The combo of Dugan, Marshall, Frizell and then Aitken who often attacks on the right hand side with Nightingale outside him. I challenge any side to rival that for a five player combo on one side of the ground. Don't remind me of 2005. I was a very depressed 7 year old when the Tigers knocked us over. I'm not expecting a flogging though, doesnt matter which team wins.
Scott Pryde
Expert
Hi Julian Souths form has been bad don't get me wrong. It's just that going on a seven game losing streak the way the Dragons did was horrible. I don't think our form was as bad as it was during that streak. I agree with your next point though. Everyone seemed to want to play the Dragons in week 1 of the finals and while I can see why, a lot of people are over stating exactly how easy it would be to take on the Dragons. I'm not sure if your last point seems to say I thought the Bulldogs were going to win but I certainly don't with any certainty. Otherwise, why on Earth would I have written this article?
Jason Hosken
Roar Guru
As alway, nice passion Scott. I thought Joel Thompson was out for the remainder of the season? Dragons 2015 remind me of the Sea Eagles 2005. Both started the season on fire and hadn't played finals for a number of years but only scraped into the 8 because those below them couldn't be bothered winning in the final rounds either. Back in 2005 in was 8 v 1 and Parra flogged Manly. Even though this week is 8 v 5, I'm expecting a similar result with a match hardened Dogs thumping a side content with reaching the finals.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Here we go again... Every team in the comp has been dudded at least three times. If you take away two tries from every game you probably would have won the minor premiership.
The Barry
Roar Guru
I'm very cocky. The draw couldn't have worked out better. As long as the Dogs players aren't as cocky as me then it's in the bag. Having said that - good luck for the game and should the unthinkable happen I'll show up to cop the slings and arrows and wish you all the best...
Julian King
Roar Guru
Scott, I think "disgusting" form is an overstatement. I'd contend that Souths' form is worse. It surprises me how fans of all persuasions were hoping to meet the Dragons in week one of the final, on the assumption that it is a "gimme" game. As cliche as is sounds, finals football is a whole new ball game. The Dragons (and Bulldogs for that matter) are traditionally strong finals teams. Our form against top 8 teams measures up well. This is not to say we will win, but the suggestion that the result is in the bank is impudent.
Scott Pryde
Expert
Not the entertainers no, but we force more drop outs than any other team in the comp (well we certainly did a few weeks ago - not sure if the stat has changed) and therefore don't really play in the rain all that well. Our defence is built off attacking pressure regardless of whether we score points.
Scott Pryde
Expert
Yeah, that scares me. Puts me in pain everytime I watch him play in a Bulldogs jersey
Renegade
Roar Guru
The Dragons love the rain - because they just defend, that's what they are good at.... they are the second worst attacking team in the comp, they don't throw the ball around and certainly aren't the entertainers. Mr.X is right, anything can happen but I think the Dogs are absolute morals and would happily eat humble pie if I'm wrong.
Scott Pryde
Expert
You're right. Anything can happen. I suppose that is the beauty of NRL Finals.
Scott Pryde
Expert
No, no, no we only had to score 12 points to win because our defence was top notch. How about the Broncos? They were full strength! Talking about the conditions for the game against the Roosters is frankly ridiculous because the Roosters suit those conditions more than us. We have a fast moving forward pack that like offloading. The Bulldogs, yeah ok lots of players out but we almost beat them at full strength a few weeks later and without some dodgy refereeing decisions we would have as well. We didn't play the Sharks in the rain? It was sunny and I know because I was at that game. We played excellent that day and the Sharks werent all that bad in the first half which probably explained the close half time score. A lot of luck against the Raiders? You must be joking yeah? The first one was a great comeback win, allbeit assisted by one dodgy decision on a Raiders try. At the same time, that was the game where we turned everything around from a shocking start to the season. The second game against the Raiders we won by 14 and were dominant so I am not exactly sure where you are coming from in claiming luck. The Cowboys, well we also had players out. Actually a lot of players out. Merrin, Dugan. Thompson, Frizell, Nightingale, Mata'utai there were more but I can't remember them off the top of my head. I mean we had Nathan Green and Jake Marketo playing in the second row that day. And wasn't it funny that our form tapering off and decreasing had something to do with the origin period, a truck load of injuries and some very dodgy losses against Canterbury and Souths at the hands of the referees. I don't know as well why you keep referring to the rain. It doesn't suit the Dragons attacking style at all. Wouldn't be paying much attention to the odds either.
Penrith Punter
Roar Guru
I still think the Bulldogs should win easily. However, even though I tipped my Panthers last year in the final against the Roosters I was adamant we would lose and we were paying similar odds. So, honestly, anything can happen.
Renegade
Roar Guru
Exactly they were only having to score 12 points to win because the other sides were decimated by injuries.... they played Manly when they were hopeless and distracted by all the contract talks, played the bulldogs with half their starting side out, they played the Roosters in a hailstorm that suited their style of play, they played an understrength sharks side again in the rain. They had a lot of luck go there way in both victories against the Raiders. In the second half of the year when the better sides started their surge up the ladder.... they haven't been able to match it with them - the cowboys beat them with all their origin stars out at Kogarah! I think they over achieved massively and would be belted by whoever they played this week - Luckily for the dogs, it's them. The dragons only hope is to pray for rain to peg the bulldogs back a bit. By the way, Bulldogs are paying $2.10 for 13+... that's as short a price i've seen for a finals blowout.
JOHNY BULLDOG
Roar Rookie
Brett Morris will come back to haunt you Dragons mate!
Scott Pryde
Expert
I honestly think you have misread this one Renegade. I can see the Bulldogs winning, a guarantee of 13+ is well, ridiculous. The Dragons are a long way from being the worst side to make the finals.They earned the right to be there by going on a massive winning streak earlier in the season and beating some of the best sides in the comp. They beat the Broncos, Bulldogs, Roosters and not to mention your Sharkies 42-6. I don't really know how you had them missing the eight when they were on top of the ladder. They were playing good solid footy and at that point didn't look like they had to score more than 12 points to win a game because of their defence. I agree that they have fallen off the chart in the second half of the season but if they get back anywhere near that they are a red hot chance in this one.