Will a team outside the top four challenge for the flag?

Finally, the pointy end of the football season arrives. All home-and-away matches have been completed and 10 teams have been eliminated from the competition, leaving the last eight teams to battle it out for superiority in the finals.

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One age old question continues to permeate through the years since the replacement of the McIntyre final eight system – which team will be the first to win a premiership from outside the top four?

Since the introduction of the current set up, no team that finished outside the top four has made it to the grand final, let alone won the competition. The last time a side from outside the top four made the grand final was 1999, after Carlton pulled off an upset over the premiership favourites in Essendon.

Once again the challenge is on those clubs finishing between fifth to eighth to see if they can break the curse and do when no team has done since Adelaide in 1998 and win the flag. This year the challengers are Richmond, Western, Adelaide and North Melbourne.

Fifth: Richmond
Record against Top 8 Sides: 4-5
Record against Top 4 Sides: 3-2

Perhaps seen as the best chance of those sides to finish outside the top four, especially given their winning record against the sides that finished in the top four. However, their poor record in their last two finals campaigns will count against them. Richmond has made the finals for three straight years but have failed to make it out of the first round, having lost to Port Adelaide and Carlton in the past two attempts.

They will face North Melbourne in the first week of the finals, a team they have played twice already, losing in their Round 6 clash, but beating them last round. Passing this challenge would mean that they would have to face Sydney or Adelaide out of state, and while Richmond did beat Sydney at the SCG in Round 13, repeating the feat and in a final would be another challenge altogether.

Another advantage many see Richmond as having is that they managed to not only comfortably beat Hawthorn, but also beat Fremantle in Perth, a feat only West Coast have managed to do.

Sixth: Western Bulldogs
Record against Top 8: 5-3
Record against Top 4: 2-3

Coming in with a positive record against top eight sides, the Bulldogs’ meteoric rise has seen them finish in sixth, securing a home final against Adelaide in the process. The two met in Round 4 when the Dogs convincingly beat the Crows at Etihad.

The Dogs have certainly been the surprise packet of the year, after finishing 10th last season. They have uncovered some genuinely talented players in Mitch Honeychurch and Caleb Daniel, while building on the existing talent and covering for the early loss of midfielder Tom Liberatore.

If the Dogs make it past the first week, they will face either West Coast in Perth or the Hawks in Melbourne. While the Dogs did manage to beat West Coast in Melbourne in the first round, West Coast destroyed the Dogs, winning the return match by 77 points in Round 21. In their only game against the Hawks, they lost by 70 points. This left the Bulldogs an uphill battle to make it past the second round of the final, let alone win the entire competition.

Seventh: Adelaide
Record against Top 8: 3-5
Record against Top 4: 1-4

Adelaide have had a remarkable season, having lost their coach in tragic circumstances half way through the year. To not only bounce back from the tragedy but to pull off their most impressive victory – beating the Eagles by 57 points in the lead up to the final – shows the strength of the side.

Adelaide face the Bulldogs in the first week of the finals, and if they are to win, they will need to play every single one of their finals away from home – making a difficult task even harder. On the chance that they do beat the Dogs in the elimination final, they would be staring down a match up against the Hawks or West Coast, followed by another interstate trip to face either Fremantle or Sydney.

Undoubtedly the biggest challenge facing the Crows is their abysmal record against top four sides this year, having only emerged as the winners once in their five matches. That record, on top of what would be an arduous travel schedule would surely kill any chance the Crows have on making an indentation on this final series.

Eighth: North Melbourne
Record against Top 8: 3-6
Record against Top 4: 2-3

North rounds out the top eight. They are however not looking to just make up the numbers having followed Fremantle’s lead and rested their some of their star players in their Round 23 match against Richmond. North head into the finals series with a losing record against top eight sides and top four sides, which make their task very difficult to pull off. It shows exactly why winning a premiership from outside the top four is so difficult.

North will take on Richmond in the first week of the finals and will be hoping that the week’s rest for some of their players will mean that they are ready to fire come their elimination final. However, even if they do manage to knock off Richmond and make it to the second week as they did last year, they would be facing an interstate trip to either Sydney or Perth to face the loser of the first qualifying final.

While North did beat Fremantle in their Round 21 encounter, that match was played at in Melbourne and the Dockers are a completely different outfit when faced on their home turf – something that the Roos discovered when Freo beat them by 73 points at Domain Stadium in Round 8.

While there is always the chance for an upset in football, especially when it comes to the finals, this year doesn’t seem like it will be any different.