Fiji: Running the numbers on their chances at the Rugby World Cup

Fiji will be poaching Otago's Naulia Dawai next ... another Mongrel..Yato has to start against England.. he is very special...a Younger Lewis Moody (from england's perspective)

Mumm was a BIG part of our biggest failure ever at the RWC..and I mean this was BIGGER than 1995 when fiji didn't even make the RWC... thats how BAD it was ...lol ..btw, average monthly salary in Fiji is around $FJD200 ($AUD120)

Geez, cookie, I'm dreading England having to play this awesome Wallaby team that can beat Fiji comfortably playing an open game or a set-piece oriented game. It's a real bugger, as a pom, knowing that the pool winners are already decided and Fiji, England, and Wales are just playing for second place. Still, I hope it's a good RWC anyway and everyone enjoys it.

Thanks Greg. Interesting analysis. Can you please confirm that Fiji will be lining up their best team? The Fijians around me are swearing that some of the best fjian players in the uk, france or nz are not willing to play for the national teams because of the lack of match fee and overall support? Is it true? If so what can be done to make sure they line up their best players?

Agree 100%

Samoa RU claiming to have lost $1.5 million dollars hosting the AB's this year probably doesn't help the PI nations hosting big games cause. But then didn't they lose a couple million of the publicly raised 3.5 million raised for the 2011 RWC? (2011 report) http://www.3news.co.nz/tvshows/campbelllive/manu-samoa-and-the-missing-millions-2011110717#axzz3LZBhvAwY When a NZ current affair show got their hands on the independent audit of the union, they found about a $800k dollars worth of receipts missing or being very sketchy and found that players were put up in Island based hotels, at exorbitant rates, where the hotel owner was related to the Samoan PM, who also happens to be the head of Samoan rugby union. (2014 follow up) http://www.3news.co.nz/tvshows/campbelllive/samoan-rugby-union-audit-reveals-missing-donations-2014121120#axzz3lZxEBmet Then we've all heard about the Manu Samoa players not getting paid anything at all and senior players like Mahonri Schwalger being fired from the SRU for speaking out and there were fears the players would boycott this years historical AB's test. Thankfully not though. Then with Fiji you have their recent 'political complications', with the indigenous Fijians resenting becoming second class citizens to the more prosperous Chinese and Indians (Malaysian has caps on these groups political and business representation for the same reasons). Fiji almost weren't allowed to participate in the 2011 RWC for all of this. Money and politics makes a mess of everything. As regional neighbors though, Oz and NZ both rushed to Fiji's aid when the 2012 floods hit the Islands which I like to think shows what really matters. Globalization where the products made in the cheapest labor markets (or talents in this case) are taken to the globes richest markets, when opportunity becoming exploitation, when corruption comes from within and outside your own countries, makes it all a big mess. None of us first world Rugby Nations have clean hands though. Back to rugby, the Bulls of Pretoria coach being the Fiji forwards coach will surely bring some balance to Fiji's traditional back line talents. There's going to be some bruised, worked up forwards coming out of the pool of death for sure.

Thanks Greg. Fiji is a dark horse in pod. I'll be supporting them and every other underdog, especially the wallabies Not long to go now. Come on Aussie!

That still is better than what Fiji has to face, playing the host nation first up, then facing the number 2 ranked side 4/5 days later. If they were serious about giving everyone equal footing, they'd play ALL games on the Saturdays. That way every team has the same amount of time to recover from the previous match and prepare for the next.

I can't shake the feeling that Fiji will beat either England or Wales.. most likely the latter. I selected Fiji to win the opening game of the tournament.. as England seem confused as to who and how they are going to play. Traditionally Fiji have had enough talent to trouble and rattle most teams at least in the first half until a lack of fitness sees them slip in the set pieces and miss tackles and leak a few tries... then they all but give up and the final scoreline isn't pretty. It's now 2015 and most of their players are professionals plying their trade in Europe so one could assume that they ought to be a lot fitter than they have been traditionally. I don't think it's out of the question that Australia and Fiji could progress thru to the finals as unlikely as it may seem to many. They will beat Wales if they can trap Wales into playing an open free running sevens style game... They will lose to England if they get trapped playing a tight set piece, kicking game. Australia should beat them with either style but will be challenged. Anything less than 100% from any team could see Fiji beat them.

But none of the southern hem teams will play them cos theyre waaaay too awesome for fiji lol

Ummm they just played wales in november last year....

Not "a bit of a mongrel", he is mongrel. Very good player.

C'mon Fiji give these precious pompous poms the hiding they deserve for the ridiculous and unfair draw you have been dealt with.

I double-checked on ESPN scrum. Fiji have played 28 tests since the last world cup, but only seven against major European countries (6N), three of those against Italy. They haven't played any of their major southern hemisphere opponents (4N).

rugbyhead I'm with you; I'd be surprised it they stay within 15 points of any of the 'big 3' in their pool. There's little to back up the enthusiasm we have (I'd love to see them win too, but just don't see it happening) 8 weeks ago, at home they faced the weakest Maori All Blacks side to leave NZ since, well, ever imo. At home, Fiji lead 26-10 at halftime, but faded to lose 26-27. Some perspective, the following week that MAB side well beaten by a thrown-together NZ Barbarians team, 34-17 The Fiji Pacific Nations Cup results were not overly dominating v Tonga 30-22 v Samoa 30-30 v Japan 27-22 v Samoa (final) 39-29 last weekend's win over what was called an 'experimental' Canada side by 19 points, 5 tries to 3, won't read too much into that in what appeared to be a trial game I'll follow, cheer, support the PI sides through this RWC, love to see an upset, but in a head rather than heart situation,don't expect too much in this particular pool. Happy to be proven wrong, but expect 80min v England will be too much

James, The islanders have been ripped off ever since professionalism started. I couldn't believe that Fiji has only played seven tests since the last world cup. That just shows the lack of interest in the Islands in-between the world cups. The IRB loves having the Islands make up the numbers, but they're ignored the rest of the time. The Islanders see professional sport as their one opportunity to set-up themselves & their extended families. But they are being exploited for the opportunity.

You may find this article interesting Sheek. http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/71910425/despicable-abuse-of-young-pacific-island-rugby-talent-a-blight-on-the-game It seems there's many unscrupulous agents who're ripping off Fijians to the world, the aspect about 55% of the French competition having to come through 3 year French academies, hence they're recruiting 14 year olds is disturbing. Jarryd Hayne is also introducing the Yanks to the inherent gifts of Fijian running, so its just a matter of time before they're on board too.

No, nor do Fiji. NZ have a 4 day turnaround. But certainly in the past the lesser nations have been treated poorly.

These nations always get shafted by the draw. Does Australia have any 4 day s turn around?

Samoa have a far better chance then Fiji. Samoa have an easier pool and plus a far more balanced team then Fiji- with a stronger forward pack. I don't think Fiji's scrum or breakdown is going to match England, Wales or Australia .