Melbourne Group 1s: Moir Stakes and Turnbull Stakes

Well, it’s deep breath time for all racing and football fans.

Group 1 racing returns to Moonee Valley for the first time this season on Friday night, we have Super Saturday at Randwick, with the Epsom, Metrop and Flight Stakes, then we see the Turnbull Stakes card at Flemington on Sunday.

Add in the AFL and NRL grand finals, and we’ll all sleep well on Sunday night.

I’ll also be sneaking off to the Benalla Cup on Friday, just to kick start the weekend nicely!

Today, I’ll have a look at the Melbourne Group 1s, with the Sydney races to come tomorrow.

The Moir Stakes kicks off the weekend, over 1200m at Moonee Valley, under weight-for-age conditions.

The flying filly Petits Filou has a stranglehold on the betting, and with good reason. Three-year-olds are always well treated at WFA, and they always run well when taking on the older horses in sprint races.

She has proven herself several classes above her opponents in four races so far, being able to accelerate off a high cruising speed. It’s a lovely quality to have.

The other filly in the race, Fontiton, is the second favourite, despite only having four career starts herself, and none since her two-year-old season. She won her first three, and only failed in the Blue Diamond for reasons beyond her control.

At the other end of the spectrum to the gun fillies is the old battle-axe Buffering. He’ll be flying the flag for the eight-year-olds after Fawkner, Mourinho and The Cleaner have done the same in the last month.

Buffering has won this race twice, in 2012 and 2014, with a second-place finish in 2013, but they were 1200m events, and this year it’s over five furlongs. Still, we know he’s good enough if he can produce his best.

Flamberge is a tough, honest sprinter, a Group 1 winner in his own right, that has further proven his class a couple of times when beating all but Chautauqua home.

Ball of Muscle is down from Sydney, and deserves his crack at Group 1 level. He’s been building to a win north of the border in two starts this campaign, and his form behind Srikandi and Rebel Dane says he’s right in this at some value.

Angelic Light is a superb Moonee Valley sprinter, who claimed the scalp of Lankan Rupee over this track and distance a year ago, in what was her most recent win. First-up and 1000m might not be her ideal scenario, but she can give it a shake closing off a hot speed.

Looking at the other three mares in the race, Griante has been racing well against good opposition, Miss Promiscuity could be a good bolter for a first four bet, while Brook Road is out-graded.

Of the others, Headwater is a three-year-old colt that hasn’t done much right this campaign, and faces a tough ask to turn it around here. Rain Affair has changed hands from Joe Pride to Daniel Bowman down at Warrnambool, so it will be interesting to see what he produces.

Le Bonsir will give a good account of himself, as he usually does at the Valley, and won’t be the worst horse in the race. Sterling City didn’t show a whole lot first-up that suggested he could win something like this.

There’ll be no shortage of speed in the race with nearly half a dozen go-forward horses, which should suit the favourite, who can just take a sit in behind the leaders. These Moonee Valley sprints can often have a length covering a lot of horses, and this should be no exception.

Selections
1. Petits Filou 2. Ball of Muscle 3. Angelic Light 4. Buffering

A fascinating edition of the Turnbull Stakes awaits us on Sunday. That there are currently four horses in single figures, and all of them coming off different lead-up races only adds to the intrigue.

Alpine Eagle is the current market-elect, and like half of the field, he comes through the Makybe Diva Stakes won by Fawkner. He couldn’t quite sustain a long run the entire straight at Flemington last time, but did come again when he had to, and hit the line well. Like many here, he’ll appreciate the step up to 2000m.

Happy Trails finished off pleasingly in the Makybe Diva as well, but is the most poorly treated under the set-weights and penalties conditions of the race. He’s ready now, and won’t be far away, but that swing against him in the weights may just count against late.

Rising Romance was shuffled back a little at a key stage in the Makybe Diva, but caught the eye ducking through late to claim second, and it’s hard to think she won’t be in the finish. This mare is a quality racehorse.

Gust of Wind was as good as any late in the same lead-up, and she appeals as the roughie of the race with $34 being bet about her. She’ll relish the extra 400m and drop in weight.

Volkstok’n’barrell, Magicool, Dandino and Weary are backing up from the Underwood Stakes after contesting the Makybe Diva. The Kiwi Volkstok is the only one you’d really entertain as a winning chance here, but it’s possible he’s just a length or two shy of genuine spring carnival Group 1 material.

Royal Descent and Hartnell are the key Sydney visitors, with cases to be made for Preferment and Who Shot Thebarman too.

Royal Descent has only appeared sporadically in Melbourne, with her three Victorian runs being the 2013 Turnbull Stakes and Caulfield Cup, and the 2014 Cox Plate. She’s racing as well as ever, and can be counted on for a top-five or six finish, without threatening the chocolates.

Hartnell looks way under the odds around the $7 mark. His 2000m win in the Sydney autumn was over the likes of Opinion and Hawkspur, getting significant weight off them. His return in the Chelmsford was okay, but not enough to be winning this. No thanks. I wouldn’t even have a $5 saver on him if he was 20-1, let alone back him in single figures.

Perferment sprung a surprise when taking out the Hill Stakes, in what was as tough a win as any you’ll see this spring. The Hill Stakes is usually a race for the battlers, but this was a win of promising stayer. This is a different class of event though.

Who Shot Thebarman hit the line well in the same event, and is one for the multiples. He’s going to win a race this campaign, if he can find the right one.

Amralah represents Lloyd Williams, who is often a factor on this day. He made a mess of a handy field in Adelaide last time out, and is hard to line up. Not sure I could jump into him at $7.50, but nor could I talk out anyone who wanted to.

Extra Zero ran a nose second in the Australian Cup at this track and distance only six months ago, and 4.5 kilograms less than he did that day. Don’t be surprised if he bobs up again, he’s been racing much better under big weights than he looks on paper.

Set Square is a live Caulfield Cup chance, and who in their right mind would discount any Ciaron Maher runner right now? Despite not tackling the usual lead-ups of WFA racing like most of her competitors, this race is very much within her grasp.

There’s not a great deal of obvious speed in the race, so there may be some shuffling at the head of the race, and there may not be a genuine tempo, which could make things tough for the backmarkers.

Selections
1. Royal Descent 2. Alpine Eagle 3. Gust of Wind 4. Amralah