The decisive match for England and Australia is here. This game will go a long way to deciding who will make it through the Pool of Death and into Rugby World Cup quarter finals.
If England lose, they’re done, regardless of what happens in the Wales-Australia game.
Win, and they put themselves right back in the mix to get through to the quarter final stage.
However, if they win, then things get very tricky for the Aussies.
The Wallabies can thank their lucky stars that Wales didn’t manage four tries against Fiji, and only won by ten points. Both bonus points and points difference are going to be decisive factors in this pool.
For Michael Cheika, the approach has always been about winning, not about bonus points. Whatever you think of that theory, if they win against England then they’re through – no harm done and bonus points rendered largely irrelevant.
There’s no doubt that’s what he’s here to do, having wheeled out what he sees as his number one team for this game.
Bernard Foley is at flyhalf, Will Genia is at halfback, Scott Sio and Sekope Kepu are the props, and Stephen Moore is the hooker.
All the big guns are back for Australia, while England have had to tinker a little bit with their team due to some injuries and other concerns.
Billy Vunipola is a big loss, literally, but his replacement Ben Morgan is a massive man and shouldn’t have any issues chewing off plenty of metres for the English.
Courtney Lawes is another big ballrunner missing from the English side, but coach Stuart Lancaster has opted to do with Tom Wood at 6, though it must have been tempting to pick a more dynamic player.
In the backs there’s a slight reshuffle to accommodate Jonathan Joseph, who will partner new inside centre Brad Barritt.
There’s no change from the Australia XV that took on Fiji, with Ben McCalman called onto the bench in place of the injured Will Skelton.
This is two teams primed to play their best football, even though England wilted against Wales and the Aussies have been criticised as underperforming in their first two pool matches.
It’s time for decisive rugby.
Owen Farrell wins the battle of the boot
If it’s a kicking duel, there’s little doubt that England will get the better of the contest.
Bernard Foley kicked exceptionally well against Fiji, but hasn’t always been so pinpoint in recent internationals.
Owen Farrell, on the other hand, has an unwavering accuracy in front of goal. His kicks travel high and true, and inevitably end up between the sticks.
England will want to trade penalty shots with Australia, as they feel it’s an area they can win.
If they assert scrum dominance early… and don’t lose it
England at Twickenham doesn’t bring back nightmarish thoughts of Jason Robinson or Mike Tindall for Aussie supporters.
Rather, it’s horrific thoughts of Graham Rowntree and Andrew Sheridan taking the Australian scrum apart, piece by piece.
Yellow cards for props for repeated infringements. Penalty tries. Referees saying their hands are tied because the props simply aren’t strong enough. That sort of thing.
If they can go close to replicating that sort of dominance, they will have a very good chance of slotting plenty of goals, and grinding the Wallabies out of their game.
They need go forward
Billy Vunipola and Courtney Lawes are big losses, but Ben Morgan is no slouch.
With plenty of grunt in that pack, and with the Wallabies playing two fetching forwards, the English will want to get a roll on.
Brad Barritt and Jonathan Joseph in the centres signal similar intentions. Owen Farrell at fly half confirms it. Win the territory battle, play through the middle, kick their goals.
If Israel Folau has a blinder
This isn’t just about Israel. Israel Folau will always do well with the ball in hand. Give him the ball in traffic and he still makes five metres.
But if Izzy is in space, that means the Aussie backline is functioning well, and he’s being put in the right positions. It probably means Tevita Kuridrani is playing well, and Matt Giteau is playing well, and Bernard Foley is playing well and Will Genia is playing well.
If Israel gets a lot of good quality ball the Wallabies will go a long way to winning the game.
If Hooper, Pocock and Fardy can stop the English momentum
The battle of the forwards will be intriguing, both in the scrums and in the loose.
In the back row, it’s all about Michael Hooper, David Pocock and Scott Fardy getting over the ball and staying there, forcing turnovers, slow ball and generally havoc with the English gameplan.
Hooper will probably be called upon to put on some of those bruising hits he’s become known for too.
The battle of the back rows will go a long way to determining the result.
It’s as important as…
The scrum must hold
Sekope Kepu and Scott Sio, along with their second rowers and hooker Stephen Moore, have to prevent England getting dominant at scrum time.
They are the last of the 300, holding the pass against the marauding hordes. Fail, and they’re through. Succeed, and they buy the backs enough time to win the game.
Of course, it’s not as simple as all of that, but these are some of the factors that will go a long way to deciding this massively important game.
Here are the teams for the game:
Wallabies team:
1. Scott Sio
2. Stephen Moore (c)
3. Sekope Kepu
4. Kane Douglas
5. Rob Simmons
6. Scott Fardy
7. Michael Hooper (vc)
8. David Pocock
9. Will Genia
10. Bernard Foley
11. Rob Horne
12. Matt Giteau
13. Tevita Kuridrani
14. Adam Ashley-Cooper (vc)
15. Israel Folau
Replacements
16. Tatafu Polota-Nau
17. James Slipper
18. Greg Holmes
19. Dean Mumm
20. Ben McCalman
21. Nick Phipps
22. Matt Toomua
23. Kurtley Beale
England team:
15. Mike Brown
14. Anthony Watson
13. Jonathan Joseph
12. Brad Barritt
11. Jonny May
10. Owen Farrell
9. Ben Youngs
8. Ben Morgan
7. Chris Robshaw
6. Tom Wood
5. Geoff Parling
4. Joe Launchbury
3. Dan Cole
2. Tom Youngs
1. Joe Marler
Replacements
16. Rob Webber
17. Mako Vunipola
18. Kieran Brookes
19. George Kruis
20. Nick Easter
21. Richard Wigglesworth
22. George Ford
23. Sam Burgess
What do you think Roarers? Who gets your nod as the winner of this one?
Bushranger
Guest
Now we know after the event that you were completely wrong. Go back to sleep on the floor of Toowoomba airport.
jeznez
Roar Guru
Yeah but I was right. :D
Mick Gold Coast QLD
Roar Guru
Thank you Riddler - I occasionally struggle through a perceptive observation on this game that I love, girding my loins (and girting my sea) to apply my limited capabilities in a cogent comment. I'm not sure what cogent means, I must look it up but I'm exhausted from applying my mind to this brief note. ;)
Derek Murray
Roar Rookie
Hoping you're right about that. Weather fine btw- no excuses.
Well
Guest
Let's not kid ourselves. Match fixing has and does occur at all levels in sport. Not that I am saying for 1 minute that this game will be rigged, but it is worth mentioning given the pressure in the professional era for results. Certainly cheating, be it drug taking or deliberately coached illegal tactics is widespread in most sports including rugby. And pressuring the refs to monitor one sides infringements has became an art from by the media, crowd, players and coaches. A straight out bribe would hardly seem a big step from where we already are.
riddler
Guest
great condition on giving the ticket ozinsa.. my kiwi mates would rtather miss the game than do that! enjoy the game and the experience.. u will remember it for a long time..
riddler
Guest
mick.. wonderful comment and observations.. and completely agree that cheika will walk when he realise if/when he can´t do the job..
Mike
Guest
Not necessarily in scrums. But in any case note my point "perhaps the ABs in Sydney would quality" (quality = qualify). It all depends on whether you think that the ABs in Sydney were playing at anywhere near their ability that day. Some see their performance in Sydney as an anomaly, some see Eden Park (where they smashed us in the scrums) as the anomaly. Take your pick.
Mike
Guest
Dave, you really need to learn the basics about the history of Australian rugby before putting finger to keyboard. You are right, in a sense - I left out one try, and in fact Wallabies in 2010 scored SLIGHTLY more tries per match than in 2011. *Number of tries scored by Wallabies per 3N match in 2010: 2.83 *Number of tries scored by Wallabies per 3N match in 2011: 2.75 The difference made by moving Pat McCabe to 12 was 0.08 of a try per match. Why then do you come out with woefully inaccurate assertions like this: "We went from an all out attacking team, to all of a sudden picking a defensive side." Did you bother to check the figures before making such a rubbish statement?
Dave
Guest
Come on Mike, 'the best try scoring Australia has had since Larkham' with Cooper and McCabe? You are confusing 2011 with 2010. Cooper with Giteau/Barnes alternating at 12 saw some of the best play possibly ever - including the Larkham era. The team was young, fast, and expressive. Finishing the season with the demolition of France in Paris. Then Robbie woke up one day in 2011 at the time of picking our squad, and completely lost his marbles (never to return). We went from an all out attacking team, to all of a sudden picking a defensive side. As I said on here ad nauseam at the time, we had an injury at 15, so bring in a fullback. After all, we had all season went with a defensive gameplan. That night especially revolved around kicking it to the all blacks all night while hoping they would make a mistake. Well it was a stupid idea to begin with, compounded by not picking Gerard - who had the longest kick in Australia. Alternatively you shift JOC to 15, Turner onto the wing. AF was a weapon defensively but was always better suited to 12 due to his ball playing abilities (excellent short passing game). Likewise, McCabe made his name wider out, but unfortunately was converted into playing 12 after what, 2 super rugby games? It was madness. Anyways, trying to forget. A new campaign is here
ozinsa
Guest
Geez the bloody parochialism in Australian rugby can be hard to stomach. I'm cutting short a holiday in Crete to go to Twickenham and don't give a bugger that I'd have picked one or two blokes different from Cheika. It's full steam ahead Wallabies. If we survive the first 20 I fancy we'll get home handily. Look for me in the crowd with the grumpy Kiwi wearing gold as I insisted if he got my spare ticket. -- Comment from The Roar's iPhone app.
Wallaby thrasher
Guest
I quite agree.
Chidlowbilly
Guest
PerterK@ 11:27am :- An excellent breakdown, good post. Having read all post thus far I haven't seen much said about kicking. England have two outstanding kickers in Farrow and Ford, so discipline is paramount for Wallabies. Pretty even in the scrums I recon, More is much more mobile than muscle bound Youngs, is better around the paddock and is more accurate in the lineout.. in fact Wallabies pack is more mobile than England's. Ben Youngs has the edge on Will Genia and as an old has been prop I don't know much out side No.9 so I'll shout up now. An ex-pat calling Australia home it hurts to say Aust by 5
Wallaby thrasher
Guest
Agreed
Wallaby thrasher
Guest
I agree.
Wallaby thrasher
Guest
nice one!
Wallaby thrasher
Guest
Of course you fully expect Australia to dominate! Steven Smith expected Australia to dominate in Ashes.
vic rugby
Guest
The wallabies cannot beat England with nh rugby. I will be waiting with baited breath when wallabies go the maul . If anyone can counter it england can. This is easily the most exciting match in rwc 2015 so far and will be a talking point in the future. If cheika has something special hidden away we will most likely see it tomorrow . This is the stuff world cups are made of ??
Alex
Guest
I would have thought the all blacks might just qualify as a top level forward pack.
Mick Gold Coast QLD
Roar Guru
Michael Cheika held his place as a player in impressive company at Randwick, has a sound coaching background, is independently wealthy through hard work and came to Australian rugby on his terms with, I have read, strong backing from a powerful "Matraville connection" about which I know not much more. That last bit is a vital protective shield in the internecine warfare that has dogged Sydney rugby forever. I am satisfied he is the best available and he has demonstrated he acts using reason and confidence in his ability to succeed. Complaints that he relies on NSW players disproportionately don't worry me at all - it is not as if he has a substantial pool of players from which to draw. I am pleased he has moved away from the mad preoccupation with "wunderkind" player solutions to a studied effort in building a reliable team. That's a bit traditional Randwick mindset when I come to think of it - every player was very good at what he was required to do (Eddie, Lloyd Walker, John Maxwell, Michael Cheika) and, with the few who were good enough to shine at the next level, they formed a formidable unit with reliable replacements capable of replacing an absent Poidevin, Campese, Ella or Ella. Given time to develop it is a successful formula. I don't have to like all his selections but I'm satisfied he is forging the right path to long term success and I'm happy for him to be "untouchable" for the time it takes to complete the task. I have the feeling he will sack himself if its just not working. No matter what happens against England or in the balance of this competition Cheika must be retained to continue the vital rebuilding of the Wallabies. He seems to have their attention - Robbie Deans told them when he arrived that their representative career could end ever so swiftly but they were too cool to listen back then - however I suspect they fear Cheika is free to act unilaterally, unfettered by the prevailing rugby politics practised by both officials and players.