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The decisive match for England and Australia is here. This game will go a long way to deciding who will make it through the Pool of Death and into Rugby World Cup quarter finals.
If England lose, they’re done, regardless of what happens in the Wales-Australia game.
Win, and they put themselves right back in the mix to get through to the quarter final stage.
However, if they win, then things get very tricky for the Aussies.
The Wallabies can thank their lucky stars that Wales didn’t manage four tries against Fiji, and only won by ten points. Both bonus points and points difference are going to be decisive factors in this pool.
For Michael Cheika, the approach has always been about winning, not about bonus points. Whatever you think of that theory, if they win against England then they’re through – no harm done and bonus points rendered largely irrelevant.
There’s no doubt that’s what he’s here to do, having wheeled out what he sees as his number one team for this game.
Bernard Foley is at flyhalf, Will Genia is at halfback, Scott Sio and Sekope Kepu are the props, and Stephen Moore is the hooker.
All the big guns are back for Australia, while England have had to tinker a little bit with their team due to some injuries and other concerns.
Billy Vunipola is a big loss, literally, but his replacement Ben Morgan is a massive man and shouldn’t have any issues chewing off plenty of metres for the English.
Courtney Lawes is another big ballrunner missing from the English side, but coach Stuart Lancaster has opted to do with Tom Wood at 6, though it must have been tempting to pick a more dynamic player.
In the backs there’s a slight reshuffle to accommodate Jonathan Joseph, who will partner new inside centre Brad Barritt.
There’s no change from the Australia XV that took on Fiji, with Ben McCalman called onto the bench in place of the injured Will Skelton.
This is two teams primed to play their best football, even though England wilted against Wales and the Aussies have been criticised as underperforming in their first two pool matches.
It’s time for decisive rugby.
Owen Farrell wins the battle of the boot
If it’s a kicking duel, there’s little doubt that England will get the better of the contest.
Bernard Foley kicked exceptionally well against Fiji, but hasn’t always been so pinpoint in recent internationals.
Owen Farrell, on the other hand, has an unwavering accuracy in front of goal. His kicks travel high and true, and inevitably end up between the sticks.
England will want to trade penalty shots with Australia, as they feel it’s an area they can win.
If they assert scrum dominance early… and don’t lose it
England at Twickenham doesn’t bring back nightmarish thoughts of Jason Robinson or Mike Tindall for Aussie supporters.
Rather, it’s horrific thoughts of Graham Rowntree and Andrew Sheridan taking the Australian scrum apart, piece by piece.
Yellow cards for props for repeated infringements. Penalty tries. Referees saying their hands are tied because the props simply aren’t strong enough. That sort of thing.
If they can go close to replicating that sort of dominance, they will have a very good chance of slotting plenty of goals, and grinding the Wallabies out of their game.
They need go forward
Billy Vunipola and Courtney Lawes are big losses, but Ben Morgan is no slouch.
With plenty of grunt in that pack, and with the Wallabies playing two fetching forwards, the English will want to get a roll on.
Brad Barritt and Jonathan Joseph in the centres signal similar intentions. Owen Farrell at fly half confirms it. Win the territory battle, play through the middle, kick their goals.
If Israel Folau has a blinder
This isn’t just about Israel. Israel Folau will always do well with the ball in hand. Give him the ball in traffic and he still makes five metres.
But if Izzy is in space, that means the Aussie backline is functioning well, and he’s being put in the right positions. It probably means Tevita Kuridrani is playing well, and Matt Giteau is playing well, and Bernard Foley is playing well and Will Genia is playing well.
If Israel gets a lot of good quality ball the Wallabies will go a long way to winning the game.
If Hooper, Pocock and Fardy can stop the English momentum
The battle of the forwards will be intriguing, both in the scrums and in the loose.
In the back row, it’s all about Michael Hooper, David Pocock and Scott Fardy getting over the ball and staying there, forcing turnovers, slow ball and generally havoc with the English gameplan.
Hooper will probably be called upon to put on some of those bruising hits he’s become known for too.
The battle of the back rows will go a long way to determining the result.
It’s as important as…
The scrum must hold
Sekope Kepu and Scott Sio, along with their second rowers and hooker Stephen Moore, have to prevent England getting dominant at scrum time.
They are the last of the 300, holding the pass against the marauding hordes. Fail, and they’re through. Succeed, and they buy the backs enough time to win the game.
Of course, it’s not as simple as all of that, but these are some of the factors that will go a long way to deciding this massively important game.
Here are the teams for the game:
Wallabies team:
1. Scott Sio
2. Stephen Moore (c)
3. Sekope Kepu
4. Kane Douglas
5. Rob Simmons
6. Scott Fardy
7. Michael Hooper (vc)
8. David Pocock
9. Will Genia
10. Bernard Foley
11. Rob Horne
12. Matt Giteau
13. Tevita Kuridrani
14. Adam Ashley-Cooper (vc)
15. Israel Folau
Replacements
16. Tatafu Polota-Nau
17. James Slipper
18. Greg Holmes
19. Dean Mumm
20. Ben McCalman
21. Nick Phipps
22. Matt Toomua
23. Kurtley Beale
England team:
15. Mike Brown
14. Anthony Watson
13. Jonathan Joseph
12. Brad Barritt
11. Jonny May
10. Owen Farrell
9. Ben Youngs
8. Ben Morgan
7. Chris Robshaw
6. Tom Wood
5. Geoff Parling
4. Joe Launchbury
3. Dan Cole
2. Tom Youngs
1. Joe Marler
Replacements
16. Rob Webber
17. Mako Vunipola
18. Kieran Brookes
19. George Kruis
20. Nick Easter
21. Richard Wigglesworth
22. George Ford
23. Sam Burgess
What do you think Roarers? Who gets your nod as the winner of this one?
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.