I’m lost for words. That was the best grand final in my memory, and had me on the edge of my seat. So what made it such a great game and do the stats accurately portray the end result?
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The numbers almost perfectly predicted the end result. Possession was 48 per cent to 52 per cent. At halftime possession was 50-50, with 15 minutes to go possession was 50-50.
The Cowboys finished the game with a flurry of possession and ultimately the Broncos cracked, allowing North Queensland to score the match-levelling try and eventually kick the wining field goal in extra time.
The Broncos, minus Ben Hunt, did not touch the football in golden point, and it cost them dearly.
The possession stats also flow through to completion rates. After 82 minutes the Cowboys had completed 30 of 40 sets, 75 per cent. The Broncos had completed 28 of 36 sets for 78 per cent. Guess where those two extra sets came? The one in which the Cowboys scored the match-tying try, and the only set in overtime.
Perhaps the two most important sets of six of the season.
If we look at run metres, the Cowboys finished on top, 1826 metres to 1698. But they had 22 extra carries and the Broncos made 10.29 metres per carry compared to the Cowboys’ 9.76. This reflects the match as a whole. There were periods in which the Cowboys forwards were on a role and dominated the go forward, then there were periods in which the Broncos dominated up front and Adam Blair and co. picked up plenty of metres. Unsurprisingly the numbers evened out over the full 80 minutes – or 82 as it turned out.
Move further down the stat sheet and the numbers continue to be pretty much equal. Seven offloads to eight. Five line breaks to four. 23 kicks to 24. 654 kick metres to 650. 12 errors to 10. Four penalties to five.
One area in which these two teams were separated, and it was still quite minor, was tackles made and tackles missed. The Broncos made 318 tackles and missed 13, a 96 per cent completion rate. That is almost unheard of in today’s game. Yet they did it three weeks ago against the Cowboys.
Unfortunately for the Broncos, this figure was above 97 per cent with 15 minutes to go, but they missed seven costly tackles in the last 15 minutes.
Completing 291 tackles and missing 20, the Cowboys had a 93 per cent completion rate. Not bad at all, but not as good as Brisbane.
The Cowboys also missed nine tackles in the final 15 minutes, which is surprising given they had slightly more ball, but also understandable given the game’s pace, and the fatigue the players would have been experiencing.
In the end the stats predicted the match to end in a draw, and after 80 minutes it did. Ultimately it came down to the Cowboys delivering a stunning play in the final 10 seconds of regulation and then Thurston slotting a field goal in what may have been his team’s only chance to win the premiership.
As the saying goes, the numbers never lie.
Crosscoder
Roar Guru
So meatloaf fitted in with the demographic at the G then clip? Over 4 million viewing on TV ,guess they are not all under the same demographic.
Wayne
Guest
Bronco's negative tactics to keep kicking out to enable their defence to attempt to win the game (masterminded no doubt by Bennett and implemented by Hunt) ultimately cost them the title. This strategy really backfired on them and enabled the Cowboys to play the running game and the individual brilliance of JT and Morgan to shine and get the result they reserved. Can't understand why the Broncos if they were trying to close out the game, didn't kick a field goal....they would've won the game. Bennett's game plan probably would've worked with any other team except the Cows!!!
Perry Bridge
Guest
Onballer - there's also a massive advantage that the NRL generally has - when normally the AFL GF falls the week early across NRL Prelim final weekend. AFL fans perhaps are more likely to watch the NRL GF - than the other way around - I'm not sure what the NRL GF would pull in AFL states if it were on during the AFL Prelim final weekend? Although on the Sunday evening it's pretty 'free air' from the live sports perspective. The other thing is - and we had this a couple of years ago - the official report comes out a few weeks later when a number of factors are taken into account. A few years back the NRL media proclaimed a victory that by the time of the final 'corrected' reports being published had become a loss. The OzTam and RegTam are manipulated data for a purpose. Be it good for AFL or bad for AFL - I take it all with a massive grain of salt.
clipper
Guest
Costa - you can't bring international figures into a discussion about two domestic sports -- you might as well quote the Olympics or Football WC.
clipper
Guest
The whole issue is hard to ascertain - regionals get blurred and overlapped, but it really boils down to the afternoon vs prime time. Once this gets solved then a true comparison can be made. The entertainment was much better at the NRL - they should do Cold Chisel every year - fits nicely with the demographic. The AFL should at least have one local act, not some washed up star from yesteryear.
Crosscoder
Roar Guru
PB. One is entitled to bring in expansionary effect., when some maintain Sunday night are not true comparisons with Saturdays,and the latter BTW is a fair call. Facts are NRL teams represented in only 3 mainland capitals compared to a national code represent ed in 5 cap cities,isI have to report a valid point. Not a case of ifs and buts.The NRL has teams in only 3 cap cities." Benefits of 5 caps is limited" !!! Then the benefit of only 3 caps representation even more so. And I am fully aware different cities impact TV ratings.It happens in the NRL,the impact of the Storm on NRL ratings.And the impact of the Swans on TV ratings. The TV ratings are what the company states,people are prepared to accept them when it suits,and should do so when it doesn't.Simple as that. The other point which AFL people find it hard to accept is the regional viewing coming from rl areas,in Qld with a huge base and NSW. Regioanal pops in these areas are bigger than the combine rural areas of Southern states plus Tas plus Adelaide.
no one in particular
Roar Guru
Wait, Canberra isn't a capitol city?
no one in particular
Roar Guru
I love facts http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=10761073
Perry Bridge
Guest
#Onballer - Funny you mention Tassie. Generally the Regional numbers used are the 4 main zones of Qld, Nth NSW, Sth NSW and Victoria. WA and Tas are excluded from the RegTam aggregated results because "Tasmania and WA have not been included in Aggregated market results due to their being markets with composite network affiliations". So - while we look for example at the Week 38 report on Regtam site - for the aggregated regionals top 20 - no AFL, only NRL run via WIN/NBN and the figure a big fat zero in Victoria. In both Tas and WA the AFL matches were top 10/20 including the 'pre match' lead in. In Tassie it's via 'Southern Cross Tas' and in WA via 'GWN7'. And then there's regional SA (Mt Gambier, Port Lincoln and all of the NT and, granted - outback QLD and also outback NSW such as Broken Hill and even the NW Mallee region of Victoria (no Mildura, Ouyen, Wentworth, Balranald, Hay). But for all the chest beating - Regional Tam surveys 2135 homes to reflect 7,602,600 individuals (as per their website) - 1380 in QLD and NSW zones and 435 in Vic. The 310 in WA and Tassie don't get aggregated. The Regional figures serve a particular purpose and that's NOT to provide an accurate national regional figure. OzTam has 3,500 homes plugged in (and 1,413 for subscription) for the metro figures. They aren't very big survey sizes. Even the ABS sports participation runs on about 15,000 respondents nationwide. #Crosscoder - if we wonder down the path not taken then all the if's and but's come in to it. The benefit of 5 capital cities is limited - in that the interest wains in the cities not represented. We know that from the fact the best ever ratings were when Sydney played West Coast, and so Perth and Sydney were tuned in and Melbourne via traditional obligation. This year it was only Perth and Melbourne.
steveng
Roar Rookie
Milford's priceless steals, were mainly due to Morgan poor and not carrying the ball properly in his arm, he dropped a ball due to his loose carry and also made that unbelievable final try due to the way he carried the ball in one arm then 'flicked passed' the ball for the try. But that is why Milford always gets a steal, he must be looking at the ball carrier and how he carries the ball in his hand and then he swoops on any chance and steals it.
steveng
Roar Rookie
I agree, but lets not be too harsh on poor old Ben Hunt, he stuffed the GF up for the Broncs and he really got punished as it is. But for the life of me, I cannot understand what sort of a 'brain snap' came into Hunt's mind? The Broncs were leading and he had no reason for attempting such a tackle. And the refs are and have been so inconsistent in 2015 that some of the none decisions are a joke. If the Cows were to be beaten in this GF then I'm sure that they would of had allot to whinge about especially with that blatant 'knock on' in the 70th minute in the Broncs 15 meters by Darius Boyd (that could have had an affect on the result) that wasn't picked up by any refs or anyone, why? It was that blatant that even 'Blind Freddie' would have seen it!
Niall
Guest
Dr Yes, go and have a look back at Trent Merrin's tackle in Origin 3, that's the worst I've seen. Refs bottling it and putting players on report does my head in.
Crosscoder
Roar Guru
Relevance to this thread and interest here costa? Zero. Get all warm and fuzzy in a union thread.
Crosscoder
Roar Guru
Perry Bridge. I could also suggest the NRL achieved these national G/F ratings despite not having a team in Adelaide or Perth. IOW not a full national competition such as the AFL.Teams in 3 capital cities as opposed to 5. I would further propose the NRL would achieve even better figures nationally,if they had a team in Perth or dare I suggest Adelaide.Melbourne Storm have proved such a point. That sir is also logic.
costa
Guest
and this :) https://www.newstalk.com/Viewership-figures-show-that-rugby-may-be-about-to-become-huge-in-Japan
costa
Guest
I love rugby!!! http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/oct/05/england-rugby-world-cup-defeat-pulls-in-more-than-10m-viewers http://www.broadcastnow.co.uk/ratings/england-crash-out-of-rwc-in-front-of-11m/5095047.article
Avatar
Roar Guru
One of the best Grand Finals I have ever watched in NRL history. While I was happy to see the Cowboys win it after two decades in the competition, I did feel very sorry for the Brisbane Broncos, and in particular, Ben Hunt, whose clanger at the kick-off to extra time will haunt him for the remainder of his playing career. The Grand Final had everything you could imagine and want - a close match with both sides throwing everything at each other, and some of the world's best players also on show. Both sides had incentives to win - the Broncos to send Justin Hodges out a premiership winner, and the Cowboys to win their maiden premiership with JT at the helm. And how appropriate was it that the game went to golden point after the Broncos repelled several Cowboy attacking raids in the second half. Congratulations to the Cowboys for winning their first premiership and may it be the first of many to come in the future years.
The Barkness
Guest
Just do it like the NFL but in an NRL style. Kick a goal, kick it twice game over. Score a try once game over.
Perry Bridge
Guest
Wait till I get going! Now, where was I? ... "Never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line"! #Mike - How about logic. When you have a program that runs 3 hours and it averages 3 million but may have peaked at 3.75 million, compared to a program that runs 90 minutes and averages 3.5 million and because it was more interesting to the end the average is far closer to the peak so also peaked at 3.75 million. 3 hours of 3 million average is 9 million viewing hours compared to 1.5 hours by 3.5 million is 5.25 million viewing hours. Which is better? Reach - to unique viewers - may be pretty equal - for all we know? They don't report that. The break down of 15 minute slots isn't reported - just the overall average. So - likewise when the NRL GF is a dud game - it's just as misleading to only report the average. But - that's the number that is fixated upon. That's facts and logic. Which would be better? The former was in the afternoon when most people in the latters market were at the beach. The latter was in the evening when many in the formers market had nothing better to watch. Noting GF coverages are broken up into sub programs of pre-match, pre-match entertainment, the game, post match presentations.
Onballer
Guest
State of Origin game 2 beat both grand finals.