Rose and Ryan review the AFL grand final

Ryan Buckland: So Cam, do you think Adam Simpson has sent anyone to Cyril Rioli yet? It’s not too late!

Cam Rose: The amount of times he was able to pop up on his own in a dangerous position, particularly in the first half when the game was shaped, was extraordinary. But then we saw Eddie Betts do the same thing in the Crows elimination final against the Dogs.

All of the focus is on team defence these days, but when a side can move the ball quickly forward, it can leave defenders floundering, and the smartest small forwards know exactly how to take advantage of it.

Ryan: It was remarkable. I wrote in my preview of the game that moving Cyril forward could be a decisive move in the game, but I thought he would be made to work for his opportunities. He took 10 uncontested marks in the end, more than anyone else on the ground, and four times as many as his season average.

As far as grand final coaching blunders go, it has to be up there. Rioli allowed Hawthorn to effectively put the game beyond West Coast at the end of the first. Was he your Norm Smith medallist pick once the game was underway?

Rose: Yeah, he was a pretty clear choice for me. Obviously the Hawks had a lot of good players that could have been in the voting (Sam Mitchell, Isaac Smith, Luke Hodge and Brian Lake, to name a few), but Rioli was the standout player who shaped the match when it was being won in the first half.

We’ve discussed best on ground, but how many candidates were there for worst on ground from a West Coast perspective? A few come to mind for me.

Ryan: My 3, 2, 1 was Rioli, Smith and a blanket over the third – if I had to pick it would probably be Mitchell.

As far as West Coast goes, well, it’s a raffle between Jack Darling (Jay Croucher called him Jack ‘Ballantyne for a day’ Darling during the game – thought that was a perfect synopsis), Callum Sinclair, and Luke Shuey.

They were the worst, but there were a dozen players that had absolute stinkers: how Jamie Cripps had 15 possessions I’ll never know, I don’t remember seeing him at all. Elliot Yeo looked like a deer in headlights every time he got the ball, and Xavier Ellis did his best impression of 2014 Xavier Ellis.

Nic Naitanui has had a lot of heat applied, but I thought he was exceptional in the ruck. Did I miss anyone?

Rose: I’ll add to that Dom Sheed, who took a couple of backwards steps and had no influence, and special mention to Sharrod Wellingham for the weakest act of the grand final. He simply had to back into Jack Gunston’s path and mark or spoil that ball.

Josh Kennedy didn’t have great delivery, but was still soundly whipped, and I’m not convinced he worked himself into the ground. Shuey made those howlers, but I thought he had a crack, and at least tried to inject some run into the floundering Eagles game. Yeo had a spectacularly awful game.

Where to now for the Eagles? Consolidate season 2015 with a top-four finish next year, or will others go past them?

Ryan: As a passionate, dedicated West Coast Eagles fan that was all-in from the start of the season (…), I see this as a list that made it to the big show ahead of its time – not unlike the 2008 Hawks, to be honest.

They’re a challenging one to assess, because one of their biggest question marks is what do they do on defence now that they have some actual defenders fit and available heading into 2016. Their zone full of mid-sized defenders was born more of necessity than design, but it was certainly effective for much of the season.

The forward line looks well settled, notwithstanding its failure on the weekend. Although another question mark will be whether the likes of Cripps and Josh Hill are actually as good as they’ve shown in 2015, or something more like what they’ve shown in their careers before that point in time.

Coming into the year I thought the midfield group was below average. Where would you put it now, after career-years for so many individuals?

Rose: I think I thought the Eagles were a bit plain for pure midfielders, and even now I’m not sure I’m seeing stunning depth there. Perhaps this was borne out on grand final day.

Matthew Priddis and Andrew Gaff give them the best of inside and outside, even though both are also effective away from their strengths (Priddis was second at the Eagles for uncontested possessions and goal assists; Gaff was ranked fourth for contested possessions and clearances).

Shuey provides inside dynamism. Then you get into the likes of Chris Masten as a good outside foot soldier, Sheed is a neat player who should only get better and will hopefully have learnt much from playing in the heat of finals. I’d like to see Yeo used more exclusively through the midfield too.

The addition of a Lewis Jetta will help, as long as they don’t have to give up an existing good player for him. Although the Swans need a crumbing forward, perhaps they might ask for Cripps.

And then, of course, you have Nic Nat as an extra midfielder around stoppages when he’s the ruckman. Has he got further improvement to come, or has he reached roughly his highest level, and can now be expected to hold that sort of form for a number of years?

Ryan: I’m sure even Pablo Picasso was capable of a stinker every now and again.

At his peak, Naitanui’s work around clearances is clearly the best in the competition. He’s got the vast majority of ruckmen covered for height and reach, but his aerial work is his real asset. The way he can hit the ball as its absolute peak, seemingly wherever he wants, is downright unique.

A healthy Naitanui is a game changer, but a history of osteitis pubis (even though his 2011 and 2012 injury was never officially diagnosed as such by the Eagles) and his sheer bulk means injury will haunt him for his entire career. He’s just coming into prime age now, so it’s safe to assume he’s at his peak. But by the same token his around-the-ground work could still improve, and ruckmen tend to get better, later.

The Eagles have a couple of good ruckmen as back-ups, too, in Sinclair and Scott Lycett. Any chance one of them heads to the Hawks following the retirement of David Hale?

Rose: Sinclair has been very vocal about committing to West Coast. Lycett must be assessing where his future lies after never playing more than six games in a row in five years at the Eagles.

So, Hale and Lake retired from Hawthorn. They both play roles that are tricky to fill. Do you expect the Hawks to take it in their stride like they do everything else?

Ryan: There’s been a lot of Hawks talk around here earlier in the week, and rightly so in my view. Winning two premierships in a row is tough, but three is quite obviously tougher. Over the stretch of their three-peat, Hawthorn won nine of their 10 finals with a percentage of 139.8 per cent. That’s just laughably good.

I think a Roarer in your Tuesday column said it best: for every Hawks player that has retired this year or will likely retire in the next year or two, there’s a replacement running around for Box Hill in the VFL.

David Hale was almost a non-factor in the second half of 2015, so his exit is probably a net gain for Hawthorn; Lake is a little more than a dent in their defence, but not much more. It simply means James Frawley becomes a more critical piece, and one of their youngsters takes a step up into the third defender role.

We all get caught up in this age equals decline narrative at this time of year – and I think you and I have done a pretty decent job of carving it to pieces this year. Right now, there’s nothing to suggest they drop away in 2016.

I’ll ask the loaded question: are Hawthorn premiership favourites for next season as things sit today?

Rose: I’m sure the Hawks are premiership favourites in most quarters, but the real question is whether they should be. It might be easy to think that they’re getting better as they cantered to their third flag in a row, but the fact is they are not.

In 2013, they had a home-and-away record of 19-3, and won all three finals for an overall record of 22-3 (winning percentage of 88).

In 2014, they had a home-and-away record of 17-5, and again won all three finals for an overall record of 20-5 (80%).

This season, they had a home-and-away record of 16-6, and this time lost a final as well, for an overall record of 19-7 (73%).

The stats make for an interesting comparison against Brisbane’s three-peat in 2001-03. The Lions had a winning percentage of 78 in both 2001 and 2002, but this dropped to 65 per cent in 2003, despite winning their third consecutive flag. We know Brisbane were able to gather themselves for one last grand final campaign before a decade-long drop-off.

Now, no club has set themselves up to be more well-equipped to combat equalisation than Hawthorn, but decline is inevitable. Do they have enough left in the tank for one final climb to the summit?

Ryan: Great stat, that! I think they’re the consensus pick, mostly because the rest of this year’s home-and-away top four have questions to answer over the off-season. Are Sydney still good? Can Fremantle bring in the offensive talent they need? Will West Coast come down following an up year, as young teams tend to do?

Hawthorn are interesting, because despite not picking at the top of the draft for half a decade, they have a solid array of young talent. The likes of Billy Hartung, Will Langford, Jonathon Ceglar, Jono O’Rourke, Ben McEvoy (only 26) have joined the team over their premiership years.

It’s almost unfair, but it shows what AFL teams can achieve with a good business plan, a well crafted list management strategy, stability in leadership on and off the field, and a healthy dose of good fortune.

The stage is set for a fascinating couple of off-season months, that much is certain.

Rose: The real test for young talent is when they are being relied on as playmakers, not just riding on the coattails of all those multiple premiership players. We’ve seen at Geelong, as you alluded to in your piece yesterday, it’s not easy to make that transition.

Let’s catch up again after trade week, where I’m sure there’ll be plenty to discuss!