Among all the argument and debate and outright guesswork this year about who would and wouldn’t make the Wallabies’ squad for the 2015 Rugby World Cup, we’ve all probably been guilty of overlooking the magnitude of forward planning that Australian rugby has been undertaking.
Coach Michael Cheika unashamedly admitted his role in the creation of ‘Giteau’s Law’, the allowance that means overseas-based Australian players can maintain their Wallabies eligibility so long as they’ve played at least 60 Tests, and had previously provided at least seven years of service to the professional game in Australia.
It was widely suggested the allowance was made in order to select the reigning European Player of the Year, Matt Giteau, who plays his rugby with Toulon in France.
Among the many quotes he’s given over the year, both around this significant policy shift, and with regard to his desire to build the depth of the Wallabies’ selection pool, two things become clear in Cheika’s thinking.
Firstly, he wants to be able to reward the players who dedicate large portions of their career to Australian rugby. When ‘60+7’ was set as the bench mark, the inevitable trawling of records discovered a number of players who were about to sign with overseas clubs – or indeed, had already – were within arm’s reach of the 60 Test mark.
James Horwill and Will Genia have now reached 60 Tests, and Sekope Kepu has already hit the mark during the World Cup. Rob Simmons and Kurtley Beale have committed to the ARU for their immediate future, but they could both possibly hit 60 Tests by the end of the tournament.
Secondly, he is creating an atmosphere with the Wallabies squad that is making players want to stay put.
Back in February – before the 60+7 allowance was made – Cheika told me in an interview, “My challenge is to make the environment so good that no-one wants to go overseas.”
Since then, a number of key figures in the Wallabies’ future have committed to continue playing in Australia beyond the RWC. David Pocock and Beale were announced just prior to the team departing for the USA last month, and other players including Simmons, Michael Hooper, and James Slipper have also re-signed this year. More players, including Nick Phipps and Matt Toomua signed long-term deals last year.
In addition, Israel Folau, Bernard Foley, and Ben McCalman have signed flexible contracts for beyond the Rugby World Cup which allow them to take up lucrative contracts in Japan and return for Super Rugby.
All the bouncing balls are slowly falling into place.
Looking at Cheika’s squad for the Cup, 16 of the 31 players selected are 26 years of age or younger, meaning that come the 2019 tournament – currently slotted in for Japan, but watch this space – they’ll be no older than 30. Another five players in the current squad would be no older than 31 in 2019, and you couldn’t rule out someone like Kepu out, either, who will still only be 33 by 2019.
The Wallabies have one of the more experienced squads in this year’s RWC – 1263 Test caps, as at the start of the tournament, only topped by South Africa and New Zealand – but by comparison, have one of the youngest average ages among the 31 players at just 26.4.
Of the Wallabies 31, only Palu, Giteau, Adam Ashley-Cooper, and skipper Stephen Moore lined up for their third World Cup, and none of them count in the 22 players totalled above who would be in line to return in 2019.
Cheika won’t allow himself to think so far ahead, but after a rough 2013-2014, it would be nice if the current coach were still in place in four years time, too.
Then you have the whole ‘investing for the future’ element, of which the National Rugby Championship will be a major cog by 2019; it’s a competition Cheika has already seen benefits from, too, in selecting Sean McMahon for his Test Debut on last year’s Spring Tour, and having the guts to select him to start in Michael Hooper’s place against Wales. Then you have the efforts of including the likes of Samu Kerevi in Wallabies training squads this year.
There’s no reason at all why some of the current NRC young guns, guys like Junior Laloifi, Ryan Louwrens, Ned Hanigan, and Hugh Roach couldn’t be established Wallabies by the next Rugby World Cup. And that’s before you bring up names like Nic Stirzaker and Jack Debreczini, who most good judges see as future Wallabies sooner rather than later.
More than a dozen 2014 NRC players made their Super Rugby debut in 2015, and those players are already experiencing the obvious benefits of playing at a better standard of rugby. Finally, the ARU is making the investment in young players it so quickly cast aside after just one season of the Australian Rugby Championship in 2007.
The Wallabies may yet do very well in this year’s Rugby World Cup after they topped Pool A, and obviously, Australian rugby fans and Australians in general would love nothing more than a third possession of the Webb Ellis Trophy.
But it’s also important to consider what’s happening now and how that is shaping things for future seasons. If 2015 does prove to be a Rugby World Cup too soon for this crop of Australian players, it should also be viewed as a worthwhile investment for future success.
Top up. Take off
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WobblieswishtheywereAllBlacks
Guest
I might have missed it but I think you forgot the most obvious point of "Gits law". Wobblies don't have the depth of talent at the top level and so must select from overseas to bulster their weak ranks. I remember 1998-02 very well (the last great golden age of Wobbly rugby tho it is stuff made more of legend than truth) and how all the great Wobbly scribes predicted dominance, not only to compete in SANZAR but to dominate it and the rest of the World. How did that work out...? The biggest problem in Wobbly Rugby is pride... The inability to be humble - oh they might feign humility in press conferences but it's just not part of the Wobbly make up. Cast your mind back to 2003 and G Grogen blasting the AB's with the infamous words "four more years". And this was celebrated in Aust media and by the Aust public. Could you imagine Richie McCaw carrying on in such a manner... Or any of the AB's. Wobblies lack class and humility. They will forever be the talented kid that just wasn't brought up very well.
mtiger
Roar Rookie
Kiwidave Brett is being humble about 2015, and let the team does the talking itself
mtiger
Roar Rookie
It should be just 5 seasons at home, NPC + SR. Someone who starts at 18, runs off at 23 to France and suddenly becomes a stalwart because he worked with Dan Carter for 2 years should be Wallaby enough at 28-32.
2211
Guest
Brett, one aspect that isn't often touched on is coaches World Cup experience. These days coaching appointments seem to run on a similar timeline to RWC's, there is a new one along every four years. As you brought up possibilities surrounding 2019, I think one of the strong points the Wallabies might have going in to that tournament is a coach who has been there before. We have seen in the past when Clive Woodward and Graheme Henry took lessons they had learned in previous iterations to take them to World Cup glory. There is even the possibility of Michael Cheika being the first coach to defend a World Cup...
CA3ZAR
Roar Pro
Haha or volleyball?
Brett McKay
Expert
Mango, that one little throwaway line *might* be an indicator of when this was originally written.. ?
Brett McKay
Expert
No problems Harry..
Brett McKay
Expert
All really good points mate. It's a bit of forward navel gazing in what could quickly become an all consuming week. The point about NRC players is really good. 12 or 15 earning Super starts this year is great, but we've still got quality players like Jed Holloway and Robbie Abel in the NRC this year who will probably battle for Super game time on 2106. Obviously, there's only 115 game spots every weekend..
KiwiDave
Roar Guru
Why are you looking forward to 2019? Australia has a squad good enough to win the 2015 edition and I would be surprised if they did not at least make the final. Focus on the present, not the future. We didn't have a third bledisloe this year so maybe we can have that in twickenham in a few weeks time
Paulo
Roar Rookie
Good article Brett. Watching the WBs play last year, I liked the games although I hated the results. My impression was always that it was a young team, in formation. I thought they wouldn't be ready for this WC (they've proved me wrong), more of a team for the next WC. Yes, you never know who will appear or decline in the next four years (Stirzaker and Debreczin certainly look good, lets see how they mature), but certainly the backbone is there. Hope Cheika holds the post, whatever the next three weeks might bring, to provide some continuity.
Mango Jack
Guest
Folau will be playing basketball by then
Dean
Guest
Part of the benefit of the rule is that after 60 tests and 7 years you'd know how to play the way the wallabies play. If you had missed so many games due to injury then went overseas you might be much more used to NH style rugby and not fit into the wallabies game style any longer.
Hoges5
Roar Rookie
Interesting perspective here Brett, however, I think we will see a vast turnover of this squad in 4 years time. If you consider that the 2007 and 2011 World Cups were some of the most disappointing results in a while, it is interesting that we had about a dozen players back up into the next squad. (or in the case of Holmes and Giteau, skip one and return). With the vagaries of injuries, pro rugby, newcomers (a la McMahon this year or a flyer on the wing), and coaches "bolters". I think we will be lucky to see 10 of these players still in Green and Gold by next RWC. Some are young enough, whilst others will be in the "old experienced head" by then. Here are my tips for who will still be there. SIo, Slipper, Hanson, Kepu (possibly), Simmons, McMahon, Hooper, Phipps, Beale, Toomua, Kuridrani, Folau Can't see our current crop of backs beating back challengers that will come in the next 4 years but that will be an interesting "spine" of a team in 2019
Harry Rugby
Guest
Thanks for another insightful & topic article Brett.
Mango Jack
Guest
What do you mean by "watch this space"? I thought Japan are definitely hosting in 2019.
rebel
Guest
You have just posted two replies to something you are not interested in. Strange. What does it matter to you if others talk about it, nothing to do with tournaments being boring. I have seen articles about England and 2019 as well. I'm with Allanthus, as I sometimes have an itch that needs scratching.
rugbyhead
Guest
mmkayyy. Obviously there was not enough talk about the 2019 cricket world cup during the 2015 tournament. and I herad nothing about the 2018 fifa world cup in 2014. Those tournaments were boring and ruined by the lack of discussion toward the one in 4 years during their own play off stages.
Machooka
Roar Guru
Brett... regardless of future Wallaby RWC success, or not, and I think it's fair to say that it's already been successful given where we were only a year, or so ago, I'm just happy that the Wallaby is back in the Rugby conversation again. Albeit for all the right reasons. And Cheika has no doubt been instrumental in this, dare I say, Wallaby renaissance. So for mine the future is looking damned bright... and just like it's supposed to be. C'arn da Wallaby... you've now got the right idenity again !
Worlds Biggest
Guest
Interesting Macca in that I was thinking exactly the same thing yesterday. Guys like Rory Arnold, Coleman, Kerevi, Lopeti Timani could be established players in the next couple of years. I was thinking about the Tongan Thor packing down with Sio !
Geoff Parkes
Expert
I don't know about you rugbyhead but it is possible mate to walk, chew gum and scratch your testes at the same time. A week is a long time between matches and I find it refreshing to be able to move on from repetitive analysis of last week and predictions for this week. It's dangerous ground for any coach to not be 100% focused on winning the tournament, but for example Steve Hansen's selection of Naholo and Milner-Skudder over Piutau was surely made with future years in mind. And in hindsight, Cheika wasted a selection with Palu, and if he had his time again, might use that spot to develop a player for the future. (Actually it wasn't hindsight, a few of us told him that for free beforehand but he wasn't listening…) Brett I don't see McMahon's selection last year or last week against Wales as gutsy - he was always on a winner with him, and now that McMahon does have this experience, Australia is very well placed in this position. Cheika's challenge obviously is to continue to build the same type of depth in all positions. That will depend on how well Australian rugby is able to streamline the pathway from talent identification in the NRC, ensuring that the best guys go into super rugby, and that they have the best opportunity to develop in that environment. Last season I think there were too many promising NRC performers who didn't get opportunities in super rugby, or to put it another way, there are too many players in the super rugby squads who are filling spots (through no fault of their own of course) who are not genuine contenders for the Wallabies. Cheika can't of course tell these coaches who to pick or how to play, but i'm guessing that he'll have a decent crack at it.