We have previewed how we expect half the teams in the AFL to fare in 2016 and now move onto the Richmond Tigers.
The Tigers have featured in three consecutive finals campaigns but failed to perform on the big stage.
The jury is out on the quality of the coach and the playing group, and it is difficult to see where the improvement will come from.
Richmond – ninth
Most players in the best 22 pick themselves as Richmond look destined to fall into the mid-table battle for spots in the lower half of the top eight.
B: Dylan Grimes, David Astbury, Nick Vlastuin
HB: Bachar Houli, Alex Rance, Reece Conca
C: Shaun Grigg, Trent Cotchin, Brandon Ellis
HF: Brett Deledio, Jack Riewoldt, Kane Lambert
F: Shane Edwards, Tyrone Vickery, Ben Griffiths
R: Ivan Maric, Dustin Martin, Anthony Miles
I/C: Kamdyn McIntosh, Chris Yarran, Taylor Hunt, Jacob Townsend
Forward line
Jack Riewoldt has evolved from one of the league’s most selfish spearheads to one who ranked in the top ten for goal assists and has become unequivocally team oriented.
Whether or not this ultimately helps the Tigers is debatable; Richmond may well prosper from having ‘Jumping Jack’ return to being the focal point he was from 2010-2012.
Ben Griffiths has taken time to develop but looks set to play a major role in the forward line in 2016 along with Tyrone Vickery. Both can pinch hit as ruckman and may fight for one spot should Riewoldt move closer to goal, but the Tigers will be content that they provide a decent one-two punch deep in attack.
Shane Edwards had a stellar 2015 and will push for more time in the midfield. The small forward spot looms as a concern for a side that ranked last among finalists in points scored and tenth overall in this category.
Forward line – 6/10
Backline
Alex Rance is regarded as an elite back and rightly so, as in terms of pure defensive skills he ranked among the league’s best in one percenters and rebound 50s.
The 2015 best and fairest winner will look to improve on his disposal efficiency and ensure that he uses the ball as well as possible, which would add so much to his ability to beat his man and rebound.
Richmond’s defence ranked third in points conceded in 2015 and ranked in the top five in least inside 50s, rebounds 50s conceded and marks conceded inside 50.
While much of this is attributed to Rance, the likes of Dylan Grimes and Nick Vlastuin add toughness and tight-checking and will be heavily relied upon to back up again this season. David Astbury seems likely to fill the second key defensive role and plenty will be expected of him with options aplenty in reserve.
The attacking flair of Bachar Houli and Reece Conca offers plenty of promise off half-back, while Richmond will be hoping their roll of the dice on Chris Yarran comes to fruition. One of the era’s great disappointments, the inconsistency and lack of big-game performances have littered a mediocre career and the Tigers will be hoping that a change of scenery rejuvenates the highly skilled former Blue.
In a team with many question marks, their defence is undoubtedly their strength with the likes of Jake Batchelor, Troy Chaplin and Nathan Broad queueing up for a spot in the side.
Backline rating – 7/10
Midfield
There are big names everywhere but this is a group that has never delivered on potential and talent when the heat is on. Year after year the likes of Brett Deledio, Trent Cotchin and Dustin Martin play fantastic attacking football to help the Tigers secure a finals spot but go missing come September when the games are played at a higher tempo.
It may be a harsh judgement, as these three will go down as above-average AFL footballers, but the fact remains they have underachieved as a group.
All three are likely to rotate through the forward line as the season progresses, with Martin the most likely to improve. After an off-season where he appeared in the news for all the wrong reasons, Martin would be best served to turn talent into performance and prove to the competition that he should be discussed as an elite player, not an unusual character.
Anthony Miles is among the most underrated players in the league, Brandon Ellis finds the ball in an uncanny manner while Kane Lambert will look to build on an outstanding end to 2015.
This group is mediocre at best in terms of its rankings for uncontested possessions, contested possessions and disposal efficiency; this is an indictment on their perceived depth and the highly rated players moving through the middle.
Any move into the upper echelon and success in September is directly dependent on this midfield becoming both more prolific and effective.
Midfield rating – 6/10
Fixture
Being one of the league’s biggest drawcards is reflected in the draw, as Richmond play 13 times at night including six games in the prime Friday night football timeslot.
While leading the league with eight six-day breaks, the Tigers double up against just two 2015 finalists in Sydney and Hawthorn while having a very winnable first three games against Carlton, Collingwood and Adelaide.
Four of their last five games are against bottom eight teams from 2015 and they only travel outside Victoria on five occasions. Many questions will be posed of this group in 2016, but they will be able to lean on a very favourable draw.
Fixture rating – 7/10
Coaching
Damien Hardwick is the epitome of a mediocre AFL coach. Every year, he gets his squad in a position to make the finals and every year they fail both tactically and mentally when confronted with the cut-throat nature of September action.
Hardwick’s inability to adapt in-game and his continued insistence on providing hollow, clichéd answers would be problematic enough. Add the fact that he is continually outcoached in big games, but seems a protected species, and one can see why Richmond fans would be demanding more. It is staggering that the out-of-contract Hardwick may be offered an extension.
Anything less than a finals berth in 2016 would mean Hardwick will be looking elsewhere for employment. Exposed form and past history would not fill Richmond fans with confidence.
Coaching rating – 5/10
Summary
Richmond have enough talent to compete with most teams and a strong defensive focus that will keep them in most games, attacking weaknesses notwithstanding. But during Hardwick’s tenure the exposed form does not stand up.
Whether Cotchin, Deledio, Martin, Riewoldt and Rance have another gear remains a huge question. Ellis, Griffiths, Edwards, Astbury and Lambert will be expected to take a leap and contribute even more to give the Tigers the impetus to appease their faithful and not waste an era where they have had a list littered with high draft choices.
It might seem humorous or antagonistic to pick the Tigers to come ninth, but so be it.
Predicted finish – ninth
phil
Guest
Well for sure the problem is that after top 6 players' the rest of the list is very average. The lack of a top ruckman is the most obvious weakness as well as a group of midfielders who simply can't or won't shake a tag. No set strategy to overcome taggers' is blaringly obvious as well as having far too many receiver type mids' who will not attack the ball. Fear of failure and no flare for risk taking makes' this below average squad very easy for opposition teams to predict cover and set into motion a negative mindset. The fact that the off field staff can leave tactic boards and strategies' for specific players'.eg the Brent Harvey blunder before the elimination final is just one example of the unprofessional approach that gives' opposing teams' too much ammunition! TOO MUCH LEFT TO TOO FEW GOOD PLAYERS. Unfortunately they have not learn't from previous failures and have not got the right type of mindset when things' go wrong.THEY ARE VERY LAX AND CANNOT PLAY CATCH UP FOOTY WHEN THEY GET BEHIND. GREAT CLUB SONG..GOOD SUPPORTER BASE..BUT SIMPLY WILL NOT CUT TO THE CHASE WHEN UNDER PRESSURE. A JOHN WORSFOLD TYPE COACH IS NEEDE YESTERDAY!
Connar Olsen
Roar Rookie
When you Forecast Fremantle and Hawthorn's Season could you please put Fremantle 3rd and Hawthorn 2nd?
Nick Croker
Roar Guru
I mean firstly if you look at last years ladder 3rd was Hawthorn and 12th was Collingwood.There might be limited examples of competitiveness between those two sides but in truth those teams were a long way apart. Sure luck. injury and the draw might hurt an otherwise competitive team but every year people say 'this team could finish anywhere between...' and this just seems like massive fence sit. Its the same way everyone looks at 18 teams pre-season and goes 'hrmm these guys could improve..' Well 18 teams can't make the finals and by the same token it's not very insightful to say this team could finish in any one of 11 spots on the ladder. I know you predicted 9th but when you qualify it by saying they could be much better than that or somewhat worse what are you even saying? Richmond will not be awful and will not be top 2. Great.... but anywhere in between? And before you say 'but I really think it's a possibility (my opinion!)' Of course it's a possibility there's at least a 61.11% possibility because you've 'predicted' a finish in a range that encompasses more than half the ladder!
Bryan Clark
Guest
What does being outraged at your article have to do with us being happy to go straight out three years in a row? Seriously mate.
Steven Paice
Roar Guru
That's a fair summation Josh, I see the teams from 3rd to 12th potentially being very close on the ladder and think we could have one of the more tight ladders in 2016. As footy fans it would be a great result for us all.
Floyd Calhoun
Guest
Well, at least you've given them a fighting chance Josh. Steven has simply put a line through them. Like most did with Prince Of Penzance.
Josh
Expert
I've written a bit about the Tigers myself but I reckon they're one of the more interesting teams this year. The could finish anywhere between 4th and 12th in my view, probably at the higher end of that scale rather than the lower. I think they've got the talent to have a great home-and-away season, but not the depth to have a great finals campaign - much like 2015 Fremantle in that regard.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
I really hope for Tigers fans sakes the Tiges can buck the not able to win a Finals Trend.... If they don't, bye bye Dimma and hello Good Guys Microwave sales!
Nick Croker
Roar Guru
Without going bit by bit I don't think your claim that this is an 'opinion piece' absolves you of leaving out good evidence I think Levi Casboukt will win the brownlow - opinion! Can't criticize...
Nick Croker
Roar Guru
Ha quite funny Floyd
Floyd Calhoun
Guest
For a team that finished two wins (one if not for 'that kick in') from the top, the writer's prediction is dire indeed. I've never seen such poor ratings & expectations for a team in that position. I suppose the tired old 'ninth' cliche should've sent a warning, but I read the whole thing anyway. Alas. 2/10.
Steven Paice
Roar Guru
Hi Nick. Thanks for the feedback. While this is an opinion piece that I don't need to defend I am happy to add some comments. Firstly getting a player's name wrong is not a good look, agreed on that one. Martin is most likely to improve for mine as he has had the fewest injury troubles and has the most natural attacking talent of the three. I don't believe that averaging x possessions does not necessarily make a player better than one who touches the ball less often. Richmond rank 9th in contested possessions, 13th in uncontested possessions and 10th in disposal efficiency; the fact they concede the least contested and uncontested possessions and rank 4th in opposition disposal efficiency talks to their strong defensive mindset. Perhaps I could have focused on what they allow the opposition to do but instead was worrying about what they do with the ball in their hands, based on that being an important feature of a successful midfield. If Tiger fans are in fact happy to have made three consecutive elimination finals and lost all three in largely uncompetitive performances, then they are entitled to that. As an unbiased observer, I cannot see that Hardwick has developed the team well enough nor achieved anything other than a decent regular season winning percentage. My opinion is based on the premise that his job and the expectation is that Richmond win finals, not just qualify for them. Again, that's just my opinion as I am not privy to his KPI's or any other internal expectations. Thanks again for taking the time to comment.
Nick Croker
Roar Guru
Probably seems a bit unfair to jump on here and roast an author.... But having said that... Not knowing players names hurts credibility. Also - massively unfair on Hardwick. I know the view you espouse about his coaching here is shared to some extent by others but I think it is hugely unfair. Richmond were fully uncompetitive not that long ago. Where's your evidence that he can't adapt in game? If you're going to write these articles at least give us some logic. I'll listen to someone argue that Caleb Daniel should play as a ruck man (he's a very short player from the Bulldogs Steven) if they can give me a reason but these cliched hacky statements about being 'the epitome of a mediocre coach have no evidence. Yes the side has probably under-performed in finals but where's the evidence to say that it was solely Hardwicks fault? Staggering that he'd be offered an extension? 10 years ago Tigers fans would've killed to make 3 finals in a row! Cliched press conference answers? How is that different from any other coach? How would his responses at pressers make the team better? Martin and Cotchin are 24 and 25 and both average almost 24 touches a game. How are they under performers? Martin would be be best served to turn talent into performance? He pretty much has from his first game onwards. 'with Martin the most likely to improve' - ah maybe, why though? It's just a line, where's your reasoning? Brandon Ellis 'finds the ball in an uncanny manner' - do you know what uncanny means? What is strange or mysterious about Ellis' gathering of disposals? This group is mediocre at best in terms of its rankings for uncontested possessions, contested possessions and disposal efficiency; - Team was ranked last year 3rd best for total disposal differential compared to their opposition - 4th for uncontested and contested disposal differential This means on average they were in the top 4 teams in the competition for getting the ball (contested and uncontested) more than the team they played against - this is mediocre? 'this is an indictment on their perceived depth and the highly rated players moving through the middle' - if this statement made sense it wouldn't even be correct. What is an indictment on their perceived depth? Their (incorrectly) identified inability to get the ball enough? The word perceived just shouldn't be there - maybe you should've said 'supposed depth' - ok now I'm nit picking - you're wrong any way they get the ball more than the other team heaps. I mean I'm sorry but you've gotta call a spade a spade right? I think this is weak sauce. And I'd love to see you defend your piece.
Bruiser
Roar Rookie
a pro? lol. reminds me of the bee gees song, its only words...
Bruiser
Roar Rookie
bingo!
Bruiser
Roar Rookie
LOL, come on, who do you really follow?
David C
Guest
Richmond need to find a new ruckman. Maric is holding them back. I would add Miles to the list that can go to another level. Bit harsh on Dimma, Richmond were pretty much dead last when he took over. The tactics come from the coaching group not just the head coach, if he surrounds himself with the right people he can still be successful.
Ramon Callus
Roar Rookie
Whilst this article may seem a little tongue in cheek I have to agree to an extent that 9th is a huge possibility this season. Can definitely see us going down to perhaps come up again. The need to get games into players like Mcbean, C.Ellis, Menadue, Rioli, Lennon, Chol and Astbury may bring us down but will benefit in the long run. We have a real shot at it in 2018-2020 imo.
Steven Paice
Roar Guru
Thanks for the feedback Ando, these are not acceptable errors. Whether they demonstrate my football knowledge is up for debate, but thanks for picking up on them
Steven Paice
Roar Guru
Thanks for picking up the Jake Batchelor oversight Neil, and I missed the fact that Richmond play away in Round 23 as well.