Oh yes, there’s no better way than to start previewing the first weekend of Super Rugby than to put some tips down on paper and making judgements.
In 2016, I’ve kind of put the band back together, recalling my Rugby World Cup
Big Questions’ colleagues extraordinaire, Harry Jones and Diggercane. Of course, The Roar’s Editor, Paddy Effeney loves a good tipping panel, so he’s in as well.
There’s plenty of familiarity around the panel in 2016, but we’re doing a few things differently too. For one thing, we’ve done away with Powerplays. What did they really achieve, anyway?
More:
» Dan Vickerman on the David Pocock conundrum
» 2016 Super Rugby team lists
» Vote: Who will win Super Rugby in 2016
» Super Rugby expert tips are back!
» Melbourne Rebels preview
» Reds preview
The big ticket item is a little further down the page – crowd tipping. Each week, we want you guys to lodge your votes for each game, and we’ll then compile them and around 2pm (Australian east coast time) each Friday, we’ll announce The Crowd’s Tips as voted by you, and as scored alongside the experts. Should be good fun to compare general consensus against the expert’s reasoning each week.
(Subject to The Crowd doing exceptionally well, and the four of us less so, obviously…)
And keep an eye out in the coming weeks, too, when we’ll start tackling The Big Super Rugby Question each week.
Paddy, lead us off…
Paddy Effeney: “With my only research being about squads, last year’s form, this year’s trial form and overall structure of coaching and playing groups, I’m not sure how well placed I am to be telling anyone who to tip. But here goes nothing.
“I like the look of the new Blues, but feel like the Highlanders are high on life and victory, so will get up in a tightish one. The Canes’ trial form is undoubtedly impressive, so I’m going for two away wins on Friday night.
“Let’s say the Cheetahs over the Jaguares. To be honest I have no idea what the Jaguares will bring this year, so it just seems safe.
“Can a Japanese team upset another South African team? No. No they can’t. Lions. I like the Chiefs, and don’t like the Reds, so Waratahs to win in a blowout. I’m a Rebel at heart, so let’s take them, and what I’ve heard about the Kings doesn’t seem conducive to beating the Sharks, so I’ll take Durban over Port Elizabeth. Stormers will round it out in style, and we’ll all be very tired by the time Sunday morning, but thankful that rugby is back.”
Tips: Highlanders, Hurricanes, Cheetahs, Lions, Chiefs, Waratahs, Rebels, Sharks, Stormers.
Diggercane: “Blues for me first up. The emotion of Umaga’s first official game in charge and playing at Eden Park will be enough for this young team as I expect them to start strongly and fade away towards the end. I am backing the Jaguares to get their first ever win in their first ever game, and the Lions to get over the top of a disrupted Sunwolves.
“The Waratahs should be too much for the Reds in Sydney while I will back the Force at home over the Rebels. A Lambie-less Sharks should still be too strong for the Kings, while the Stormers should clean up over a Pollard-less Bulls.
“Chiefs and Crusaders? Arrgh, Crusaders never seem to win their first up match but surely they will be pretty sore over their last pre-season hit out. Dunno; going to say Chiefs because of the Cruden factor.
“And in the important match, the Brumbies look a solid and settled outfit and surely must be a warm favourite for the Oz conference. Always tough to play in Canberra, are the Ponies. So, I am going to have to say ‘Canes by plenty.”
Tips: Blues, Hurricanes, Jaguares, Lions, Chiefs, Waratahs, Force, Sharks, Stormers.
Harry Jones: “Tana Umaga will need more time to teach his young halves decision-making than the tough Highlanders will give him; another discouraging Blue loss at Fortress Eden.
“The most-settled squad in the competition, the international-filled Brumbies, will use the pace of Tomas Cubelli to add a new dimension in Canberra.
“The World Cup semi-finalists will wreck the Cheetahs because the Bloemfontein boys don’t tackle. The Lions will start well, because they always start well; and Tokyo is Johannesburg without the crime.
“Dave Rennie’s Chiefs are too young to win in Christchurch this weekend, but they have been the best team in Super Rugby over the last four seasons and will come right by the end.
“The Sharks are playing an amateur beer league team in P.E, and the Bulls refuse to pay injured wunderkind Handre Pollard, so Karma and the Stormers pack (the only players getting paid in South Africa) will punish their greed.”
Tips: Highlanders, Brumbies, Jaguares, Lions, Crusaders, Waratahs, Rebels, Sharks, Stormers.
Brett McKay: Right then, how hard can this be?
I’m sticking to my guns that the Highlanders should be outright favourites in 2016, so I can hardly pick the Blues, can I? And because I’m looking forward to sending a certain Kiwi a gloaty text message on Friday night, the Brumbies is similarly easy.
I’m a sucker for new teams, so Jaguares (say it with me, “HA-GUAR-ES”!) and Sunwolves it is. Also, I want Tuesday’s column to have been worthwhile.
In Christchurch, I have one hashtag for you: #GoChefs.
The ‘Tahs will be too good for the Reds, with a new-fangled ‘Three More Tries Than The Other Lot Bonus Point’ (TMTTTOLBP) a very real possibility. And there’s a whisper that Nic Stirzaker may not be quite right after his offseason shoulder surgery, so that, plus a healthy benefit of the doubt to the Force about their “we really are playing more expansively this year, promise” sees that tip heading west. And then Sharks and Stormers.
Tips: Highlanders, Brumbies, Jaguares, Sunwolves, Chiefs, Waratahs, Force, Sharks, Stormers.
The Summary
Round 1 | Diggercane | Patrick Effeney | Harry Jones | Brett McKay | The Crowd | |||
BLU v HIG | Blues | Highlanders | Highlanders | Highlanders | Highlanders | |||
BRU v HUR | Hurricanes | Hurricanes | Brumbies | Brumbies | Brumbies | |||
CHE v JAG | Jaguares | Cheetahs | Jaguares | Jaguares | Jaguares | |||
SUN v LIO | Lions | Lions | Lions | Sunwolves | Lions | |||
CRU v CHI | Chiefs | Chiefs | Crusaders | Chiefs | Chiefs | |||
WAR v RED | Waratahs | Waratahs | Waratahs | Waratahs | Waratahs | |||
FOR v REB | Force | Rebels | Rebels | Force | Force | |||
KIN v SHA | Sharks | Sharks | Sharks | Sharks | Sharks | |||
STO v BUL | Stormers | Stormers | Stormers | Stormers |
The Crowd has spoken..
Tips closed at 2pm AEDT on Friday, just hours before the season kicks off, and it’s fair to say that The Crowd sees clear favourites in all nine games. Our thanks to all of you, for the almost 400 votes lodged – the final breakdown was:
Highlanders (77.4%)
Brumbies (72.3%)
Jaguares (79%)
Lions (76.2%)
Chiefs (78.5%)
Waratahs (95.2%)
Force (62.3%)
Sharks (95.7%)
Stormers (92.2%)
ThugbyFan
Roar Guru
Damn RT, you scooped the pool. KonGrats. Your mob looks like a rugby team now that TU is in the sheds waiting to bite heads off if they repeat those shocker errors from last year. My major tip for year is Crusaders on the way Down and not even make the finals, Auckland Blues on the way Up and big chance for the finals. Silly me tipped the reigning champs here and the Blues in another tip comp, otherwise would have scooped also. I guess I'll catch you when the NSW Tahs (used to also be called the Blues till the 90's SR started) and the Auckland Blues meet. Go both Blues teams. :)
Rugby Tragic
Guest
Hiya Harry... of course mate, born and bred Aucklander, how can I go for anyone else
RobC
Roar Guru
DCs impression http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cNDREuP0YFM BizHarrie du Plessis: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T0u7lxN6WdE
Brett McKay
Expert
Thanks for everyone's contributions to The Crowd's tips - check out the table above for the final results..
Brett McKay
Expert
About five minutes until we cut off the Crowd tipping form above, so if haven't yet already or you want to stick some more votes in, do yourself a favour, quickly!
Charl
Guest
Haha - and you could be our Argentinian hooker representative, Harry - for equality an all.
Harry Jones
Expert
Well, at least the Saders won't be complacent.
Harry Jones
Expert
My Alpha-ness is so solid, it is being considered for use in several Central American nation states. My Alpha is currency. Fungible.
Harry Jones
Expert
Digger does a great World Cup Japanese try scorer impression
Charl
Guest
And a great stonewalling that was too. How about including one of our Argie friends as panel expert for this season Brett? Don't know if we have any Japanese friends on this site yet?
ThugbyFan
Roar Guru
Read today that if the Faf du P wasn't dropped by Wade off Benny the Hilf in that match, then Hilfenhaus would have got to 100 test wickets in his career. Damn.
ThugbyFan
Roar Guru
Saw bits of the trial Canes vs Canterbury on a Fox show tonight. What a flogging, 74-5 says either the Canes aren't missing Ma'a Nonu and Conrad Smith too much or the Crusaders are going to have a shocker in 2016, or we should just ignore it as a trial flash in the pan. Always difficult to know how your team is going to go. Last year's Round 1, I wonder how many of us picked the Force against the SR Champs at SFS. Anyways, put my twopence in and see how I go. And of course, don't forget to enter the Tipping contest folks. May us rookies beat them Guru Gods. LoL
Harry Jones
Expert
Stormers' 23 announced: Strong pack with Malherbe, Kolisi, Schickerling, Scarra N making the last 25-30 minutes hard for the Bulls. 15 Cheslin Kolbe, 14 Kobus van Wyk, 13 Johnny Kotze, 12 Juan de Jongh (co-captain), 11 Dillyn Leyds, 10 Robert du Preez, 9 Jano Vermaak, 8 Nizaam Carr, 7 Schalk Burger, 6 Sikhumbuzo Notshe, 5 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Vincent Koch, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Oli Kebble Substitutes: 16 Scarra Ntubeni, 17 JC Janse van Rensburg, 18 Frans Malherbe (co-captain), 19 JD Schickerling, 20 Siya Kolisi, 21 Nic Groom, 22 Kurt Coleman, 23 Leolin Zas
Harry Jones
Expert
Come on Rebels and Crusaders! (That sounds so historical).
jameswm
Roar Guru
Tips entered - thanks boys. Time to put my money where my mouth is - even though it's free.
Brett McKay
Expert
Crowd tips UPDATE (as of 7:45pm AEDT Thursday): Highlanders - 74% Brumbies - 71.5% Jaguares - 80.1% Lions - 73.7% Chiefs - 79.7% Waratahs - 93.1% Force - 63.7% Sharks - 95.1% Stormers - 92.7% Final tips announced after 2pm AEDT Friday..
Kuruki
Roar Guru
Damn the home and away!!! My tips look good until i see how many away wins I've banked on.
Kiwihaydn
Guest
How long until Big Brad Thorn gets a run?
Machooka
Roar Guru
Thanks for all your trouble yesterday... it was indeed the browser! I had a peek at my tips to make sure they were the same as what I thought they were, and noticed I was already coming 21st out of 284 tipsters on 0 pts!?! Geez... I'm sincerely hoping that's not going to my best ranking for the entire season but it may well turn out to be :)
KiwiDave
Roar Guru
Opening rounds are always tough. Unless an away team is heavily favored in the betting market like Sharks and Lions, best to stick with the home teams