2016 Blue Diamond Stakes: Group 1 preview and tips

A big Saturday of racing awaits us with Victoria’s biggest Group 1 day of the autumn/summer circuit, the Blue Diamond Stakes, fast approaching. It contains three races at the highest level – the Blue Diamond, Oakleigh Plate and Futurity – complemented by the Group 1 Chipping Norton in Sydney.

Should all of these races have Group 1 status? Should they maintain their current place on the calendar?

Come back on Monday next week when Justin Cinque and I will be going through the Australian calendar with a fine-tooth comb, and talking about the changes we’d make.

Caulfield: Blue Diamond Stakes
$1,500,00, 1200 metres, two-year-olds, set weights

The Blue Diamond has been a cut-and-dried affair in recent years, with the past five winners paying an average price of $3, and five of the last six having an undefeated career before taking out the race. But between 2005 and 2010, the average priced winner was $15. Are we in a favourite’s year, or can a roughie salute?

This year looks a straightforward one to me.

Extreme Choice should be the one to catch, and is the one to beat, at least according to the market. He has been outstanding in both time and visually in recording his two wins. Not many win a Diamond coming off anything but an 1100-metre run, though, so he may be vulnerable late.

Flying Artie turned in an eye-catching win in the Colts Prelude, taking it out with authority after having things against him. His turn of foot certainly felt good under Damien Oliver, who chose to ride him instead of the favourite.

Star Turn was very good behind Flying Artie, and if there’s to be an on-speed boilover in the case of Extreme Choice not running the 1200 metres out, he’s the horse to do it.

The quinella from the Fillies Prelude are going to take the most beating.

Samara Dancer took that event out after a cruisy run just worse than midfield, the gaps appearing at just the right time. If things go her way again, and there’s no reason they won’t jumping from gate four, she’ll look the winner at some stage.

Concealer was the run of the race behind Samara Dancer, missing the start by a length and then firing off the fastest last 400- and 200-metre sectionals from either Prelude. This is worth noting given both races basically went out and came home in the same time.

If Concealer jumps with them and Mark Zahra gets her comfortable and in a rhythm, she might just be the fastest of them all.

The Blue Diamond is usually a high pressure race, and I’m always partial to the run-on horses ahead of the speedier types. Barriers can often be of little consequence, and bad-luck stories are hard to find. And for those playing the multiples, anything can run a place, and plenty of those at odds will have supporters to do just that here.

Selections
1. Concealer
2. Samara Dancer
3. Flying Artie
4. Star Turn

Caulfield: Futurity Stakes
$500,000, 1400 metres, no restrictions, weight-for-age

The Futurity Stakes doesn’t always attract a field of depth or quality but it has this year, with eight of the 11 runners having won a Group 1 at a mile or less.

Turn Me Loose is the favourite after producing an excellent first-up run in the Orr Stakes, beaten just over a length after leading them along in a swoopers race. He’s all quality.

Hucklebuck was arguably the run of the race in the Orr, putting in a huge performance from the rear of the field. It had ‘next time’ written all over it, and he’s ready to win now. Stratum Star might be the sneaky odds horse out of the same race. He usually improves three to four lengths second-up and will get the run of the race from gate four.

Elsewhere from the Orr, Rebel Dane ran his usual honest race but finds it hard to land a killer punch, and is at his best when a bit fresher. Boban was excellent out wide from the rear, and will run well again. Is Glyn Schofield, back on board, the key to him?

Of course, Suavito won the Orr Stakes, her fifth win in six starts, including two Group 1s at this track and distance, including this race last year. What a marvellous mare she is when right, with a stunning sprint.

Politeness has been in supreme form over the past six months, either winning or being the horse to beat into second. She returned with an excellent run in the Rubiton, and if drawing the inside is no spoil for her, she’ll be hard to hold out.

Scissor Kick is first-up from a long spell, Entirely Platinum can run well but doesn’t win, The United States should find it too short but won’t disgrace himself, and Trust in a Gust is working into his prep, but can only find wide draws.

This looks a tough, tough race. Turn Me Loose and Entirely Platinum should ensure a genuine tempo, which ensures every horse gets their chance.

Selections
1. Hucklebuck
2. Turn Me Loose
3. Stratum Star
4. Politeness

Caulfield: Oakleigh Plate
$500,000, 1100 metres, no restrictions, handicap

Another Oakleigh Plate, another capacity field, another seemingly impossible task to find the winner.

Or is it?

The three-year-old filly Heatherly belted the living suitcase out of genuine Group 1 mare Politeness last start, strolling in the Rubiton, the same track and distance as this race, by five and a half lengths. If she reproduces that run, dropping a kilo mind you, she simply wins.

Keen Array is a plenty smart three-year-old himself, and his second in the Coolmore was franked by Japonisme in the Lightning last week. If Heatherly does falter in the lead, then he’ll be the horse primed to pounce.

Fell Swoop is a winning machine, and will sit handy in the run. He’ll have enjoyed his break after racing through the winter and early spring, and if he’s improved again, then he’s every chance. He loves a street fight too, which the Oakleigh Plate can often become.

Fast N Rocking has become an uber consistent sprinter over the last 12 months, running particularly well in Group 1 WFA races as well as a couple of handicaps, including a close third in this race last year. If he gets the breaks, he can win.

Bounding is a high-class sprinting mare, particularly first-up. You can bet your house on Flamberge defying the odds, he almost always does. Who knows which version of Lord of the Sky we’re going to see.

This should be a thrilling race, and advice to punters is that wide barriers usually provide the winner in an Oakleigh Plate. If you like something that’s drawn wide, don’t jump off, have more!

Selections
1. Heatherly
2. Fast N Rocking
3. Keen Array
4. Fell Swoop

Elsewhere at Caulfield, there’s value to be found with Puritan in the Zedative, Tally in the Autumn Classic, and Our Ivanhowe in the Peter Young.

And Azkadellia should just win the last, but will have plenty of people on board either straight out, or taking her one-out as the last leg of multiples. Can she carry all that weight to victory?

Randwick: Chipping Norton Stakes
$600,000, 1600 metres, no restrictions, weight-for-age

Winx is hot favourite to record her seventh win on end, and her fourth Group 1, and why wouldn’t she be. Her first-up win over Solicit in the Apollo wasn’t effortless, but it was comfortable in the end, and she should be harder to beat here.

Hartnell’s spring campaign was better than it reads on paper, but it will be interesting to see how he comes up this prep. Mongolian Khan returns to Sydney for the first time since his ATC Derby win, as a Caufield Cup winner no less. He won’t win, but hopefully shows some class.

Preferment is 100-1 to win, but I’ll be having something on him. He’s in the shadow of his Cox Plate winning stablemate now but has the makings of a special horse himself. Interested to see what he does.

Dibayani will run well and you can couple him up as a roving banker with Winx in your first fours. We want to see more from Magic Hurricane, and also look to see Hauraki take another step.

Selections
1.Winx
2.Dibayani
3.Preferment
4.Hartnell

Enjoy your day following the races, it should be a cracker across the board. Don’t forget to check back in on Monday where Justin and I break down the Australian racing calendar.