Carlton impressed relative to expectation in the first week of the NAB Challenge, looking spirited and organised against Hawthorn, before a reality check set in over the weekend.
They were comprehensively outplayed by Essendon, largely due to fielding a side without most of their best players.
The Blues are coming off a wooden spoon year of four wins, having won seven games the year before. But was 2015 the bottom-out, or is it still to come?
A case can be made either way, and the answer will have to do with three key things – can the core group of senior talent all play consistently near their best; can the playing list have a decent run with injury for the first time in a number of years; and can Brendon Bolton and his staff develop the younger players beyond expectation.
Let’s have a look at Carlton’s potential best squad:
| B: | Zach Tuohy | Sam Rowe | Jacob Weitering | |
| HB: | Kade Simpson | Michael Jamison | Sam Docherty | |
| C: | Dale Thomas | Patrick Cripps | Blaine Boekhorst | |
| HF: | Matthew Wright | Andrejs Everitt | Sam Kerridge | |
| F: | David Armfield | Levi Casboult | Andrew Walker | |
| Foll: | Matthew Kreuzer | Bryce Gibbs | Marc Murphy | |
| Int: | Ed Curnow | Kristian Jaksch | Dylan Buckley | Nick Graham |
| Emerg: | Andrew Phillips | Simon White | David Cunningham |
The first thing to note is a player like Simon White, who finished ninth in the Carlton best and fairest last year, in the emergencies. White not being part of the best 22 is a good thing – an honest footballer and no doubt a great club man, but more creative talent needs to be given a chance to shine.
The Carlton backline has a bit of the same old, same old feel to it, which is understandable given Kade Simpson, Michael Jamison, Sam Rowe and Zach Tuohy, staples down back for the past two seasons, will have an average age of 29 between them this season.
We know what each of these players is capable of, and their ceiling has been reached. Sam Docherty is still on the improve, and will be looking to further establish his play-making credentials down back, being welcomed as he has into the leadership group at the club. Hopes are high for him.
Blues fans will be wanting to see number one draft pick Jacob Weitering in action as well, desperate for him to start his on-the-job training in order to be the number one tall defender in a few years time, and potential gun of the competition. If nothing else could be taken out of the loss to the Bombers on the weekend, Weitering immediately looked the part.
Lachie Plowman is another they’d like to see force his way into the best 22. Are they both fighting for the same position, or can they force out someone more established? The development of these young players will inject some interest in neutrals watching the Blues too.
In the midfield, Patrick Cripps made everyone who likes football fall in love with him last year. What a player he is already. Carlton still have some bloody good footballers in there to support him, but are their names bigger than their collective output?
Marc Murphy is 28 turning 29, and you have to ask when in the hell did he get so old? I guess playing for the Blues will do that to you, and he’s not the dazzlingly skilled free-running ball-winner he was in the peak Ratten years.
Dale Thomas is in the same age boat and has only played 30 games in three seasons, with barely any of them a patch on his 2010-11 form. Yes, he’s had injury struggles, but let’s face it, he’s not the first player to find it easier to play good football in grand final sides and struggle thereafter. Yet people still continue to overrate that type.
Bryce Gibbs had his best year in 2014, only to follow it up with his worst in an injury-marred 2015. He’ll turn 27 just before the season starts, while Matthew Kreuzer, still seen as an unfulfilled talent on the rise, will be the same age not long after. A fit Kreuzer playing 22 games as the number one ruck becomes the most important player on the list.
All of a sudden the famous Murphy, Gibbs, Kreuzer triumvirate, who were supposed to be the youthful foundation of a successful dynasty once upon a time, have instead been part of a rotting carcass, and are now the experienced hands expected to lead another rebuild.
If these three and Thomas, all now clearly in the shadow of Cripps in terms of both output and leadership, regardless of titles, were to have career-best seasons, what would it mean for the Blues? How far from the bottom could they climb?
The Carlton forward line has had a cobbled-together feel for some time now, and will continue to do so now that Lachie Henderson, Tom Bell and Troy Menzel have been jettisoned.
Levi Casboult would be a good third forward and second ruckman, but has to play as the main target. He improves year-on-year though. Andrejs Everitt had a career-best season in 2015, and can consider himself robbed to have finished as low as eighth in the Carlton best and fairest. He’ll be solid again.
Matthew Wright and Sam Kerridge have been recruited to provide the ground-level smarts and add support in the middle, while Andrew Walker simply must play in the front half and average a couple of goals a game as the most talented and balanced forward at the club.
No AFL defence will be having restless nights before playing against that ‘attack’. In fact, the Essendon defenders will probably sleep soundly only twice this year – before Round 6 and 23.
Carlton’s depth is recycle city, but what kind of depth is it? For instance, if Jed Lamb finally cracks it for a regular game at his third club, does it mean he’s a better player than he was at Sydney or Greater Western Sydney? Or does it just mean the Blues are that much worse?
The Blues will get a look at most players on their list at some stage this year. Is there a surprise packet or two that will jump up and make a spot their own?
Brendon Bolton will be the story of the year one way or another. Taking over a basket case gives you a free hit for a couple of years, but Bolton is a man that wants to make an impression early. He’ll be patient when it’s called for, but short shrift will be given to those that don’t buy into exactly how he wants his side to play.
As ever, a new coach breathes fresh air into a tired football club, and the noises coming out of Princes Park are all the right ones. The older players are invigorated, the younger players get their chance to prove themselves to a fresh set of eyes. It’s unlikely we have another Mark Neeld on our hands.
Carlton won seven games in 2014, and while their side this season won’t quite be at the standard of them, it won’t be far away. They’ll be disappointed if they only won four again though. Somewhere in between those numbers feels about right.
Predicted ladder spread: 15th-18th
Predicted finish: 17th
Best and fairest: Matthew Kreuzer
Leading goalkicker: Andrew Walker
All-Australian potential: Patrick Cripps, Matthew Kruezer
Rising Star candidates: Jacob Weitering, David Cuningham, Charlie Curnow
Macca
Guest
BBJ- "I love watching footy so avoid Carton games, please excuse my ill-infirmity" So you admit you have no knowledge of the topic whatsoever but still felt compelled to voice your opinion on it - seems a great use of your time.
BBJ
Guest
I love watching footy so avoid Carton games, please excuse my ill-informity. As for what I want, bring back Sticks, I know you want to.
Macca
Guest
BBJ - I didn't say Rowe plays good footy - in fact I have said numerous times I think he should see limited game time this year - but to describe him as a ruckman that could rest forward is just uninformed. "I appreciate you are bullish on your untried youth. How has that worked out for the blues recently?" Pretty well in recent times. But given we have a new recruiting staff, new coaching staff, newish CEO and president and newish board I don't really think the past is much of an indicator of the future. But in you original post your criticise the blues spine and that they haven't made a calculated move to rebuild the squad yet they used 3 picks in the first 11 to rebuild a spine - seems to me they are doing exactly what you want from them.
Paul D
Roar Guru
"Nice to see especially without the biased ragging that usually appears on articles about Carlton." Don't read any further down then Col.
BBJ
Guest
Sawing Rowe plays his best footy down back does not mean he plays good footy. I think he could play poor footy at either end of the ground. I appreciate you are bullish on your untried youth. How has that worked out for the blues recently? Given their strike rate over the last few years, you'd think being drafted by Carton is a fair indicator that that player wont make it.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
LOL. I wonder if the coaches show him his stats during the week and ask him to contribute some of his salary to the end of season trip.
Macca
Guest
BBJ - Not saying your opinion doesn't count for much but when you describe Rowe as "a ruck that could rest forward" when he has only ever pinch hit in the ruck (unimpressively) and plays his best footy as a key defender does raise some questions. You are right the recruitment of the 4 GWS players is not going to rebuild the list long term but considering it only cost them pick 28 for them plus an upgrade on the pick they got from Geelong for Henderson (a pick they used to get Harry McKay) it will only take one of the 4 (say PLowman who will help with that spine) for the gamble to pay off. On the spine the blues have Cripps in the centre - Weitering looks a high quality CHB & Mckay should develop into a good quality CHF - that is a calculated move to rebuild a squad - especially when you throw in Curnow and Silvagni up forward.
BBJ
Guest
Saying Carton did well in NAB 1 seems an over statement. They kicked one goal in the second half. That is bad, very bad. Casboult is a ruck who could rest forward. Rowe is a ruck that could rest forward, Kruezer is not really a ruck and not really a KPF. The Carton spine is non-existent. Malthouse does not get near enough credit for the diabolical state of this list. The recruitment of the GWS seconds, another stunning Malthouse initiative, that has been continued this year is more a PR stunt to appease the masses. This is not a calculated move to re-build a squad. I would almost gift them a priority pick now.
Macca
Guest
Lamb is an interesting one - he racked up the possessions in the NEAFl last year but apparently the knock on him was his defensive game yet on Sunday he had 6 possessions and 7 tackles - I am not confident and agree Sumner is the better prospect but there is enough there to make Lamb interesting. Gallucci gave Goddard a fair spray - he looks determined to get everything out of himself and make the most of his opportunity - I think he will be behind Lamb, Sumner & Smith (as well as Armfield) but who knows - he is proven at VFL level which you can't say about some of the others.
Macca
Guest
Slane - you are verballing me there, all I am saying is that to this point in his career (which includes coaching 5 AFL games which I would have thought would cover his ability to actually run 2 miles) Bolton has demonstrated he is an excellent communicator, great teacher and quality person tha has an aptitude for coaching. To this point he has done enough to inspire confidence he is up for the job - we will only be able to tell if that confidence was warranted after the race has been run.
Winston
Guest
Sorry yes meant Bruce. My bad.
Brinnx
Guest
Well that say's it all
Cameron Rose
Expert
I've been hearing things about this Galucci, and he looked like he has some go from what I saw on Sunday. Probably limited, but if he's going to give everything, then perhaps he plays ahead of Armfield in that forward pressure role. I'm not sure I'd expect too much of Lamb. Sumner is the interesting prospect if he can get right.
Samantha
Roar Rookie
For anyone wondering (I was curious so I looked it up). Liam Jones: 1 Handball, 1 Disposal, 2 Contested possessions, 0% disposal efficiency, 2 Clangers, 1 Tackle, 1 Free against, 78% Time on ground, 3 Fantasy points.
Alex Thomas
Guest
Yep, only played a half but still struggled to get the ball. His tackling was ferocious in NAB1 too which was great to see, but he can't get the ball. I'm still a fan for the short term (hey, he kicked the first goal of 2015 which was nice for the wallet!) but he will be pushed out very soon, if he can even get a game this year.
Alex Thomas
Guest
Walker should have a solid year and get rewarded with a 2017 contract. That may be his last year as I'm fairly certain they want to give the #1 guernsey to the next SOS in 2018!
Alex Thomas
Guest
Yep, whoever can perform better as a 2nd (or 3rd) tall up forward will get the early gig. Phillips is a much better ruck, but it seems Gorringe is slightly ahead in the forward stakes. Makes for an interesting time, although it's good we have some depth, especially if Kreuzer was to go down. Just read Bolton saying our senior players will get a game in NAB3: Murphy, Cripps, Gibbs, Kreuzer, Kerridge, Thomas, White. Obviously I'm happy White was thrown in there, promising signs. Yep, would not be surprised if we played almost the whole list again. There is a lot of 'potential' from younger players in Curnow, Mackay, Cunningham, Byrne, Sheehan, Galucci while the recycled players will all get shots at times in Lamb, Wright, Whiley, Plowman, Sumner. It's quite exciting that none of these players are in the Best 22 yet, so if 4-5 can get in there it would mean they are worthwhile. At least we will have some depth (or again, potential depth) to test out this year.
Col. from Brissie
Guest
Great comments by all concerned. Nice to see especially without the biased ragging that usually appears on articles about Carlton. Would have liked to contribute more but away for a couple of days with limited wifi.
Slane
Guest
'o you want to see Bolton perform before you predict whether he can? Do you also lay your bets after the race?' Actually if you were using a metaphore it would be more like me wanting to see if the horse can run before putting a bet on it. Maybe even waiting till a horse had made it over 2 miles before claiming it is ready for the Melbourne Cup. But of course you are right Macca, without Carlton having played a single game Brendon Bolton has proven unequivocally that he is the right coach for the Blues.
macca
Guest
I think both will push high to the wings - Everitt kicked a lot of his goals last year working back into space while Walker looks better on a lead but is biggest weapon is his tank so he will try to work his player off his legs.