AFL Preview series: Geelong Cats

Few teams have created more discussion coming into 2016 than Geelong.

In the Herald-Sun footy guide from a week or two ago, 14 of the 18 experts had the Cats rebounding from not playing finals to inside the top four. Of those, five had them as either finishing on top of the ladder or winning the flag.

There’s always a boom side coming into every season, and this year they are it. But they’re coming from a low enough base, with particular vulnerabilities.

Read the rest of Cam’s AFL season previews here.

Against the top four sides on the ladder last year, they had a fragile 1-6 record, and a percentage of 68. Against the preliminary finalists, the record was worse, 0-6 and a percentage of 62.

Yuck.

And they copped some canings in those matches too, losses of seven to ten goals all too regular.

But they did finish in the top four the year before last, and it’s been well documented how they acquired a number of big name recruits in the off-season. Let’s have a look at the best side they can take to the park.

Geelong conceded the 11th most points against per game last year, which didn’t help in their fall from grace. The signs were there given they were ranked ninth in defence the year prior, despite finishing third on the ladder.

They conceded 87 points a game on average, but five times they conceded 120 points or more – all against sides that either finished top four or made a prelim.

Tom Lonergan and Harry Taylor have held down the key positions at the Cattery for longer than a Westeros winter.

Lonergan has been so dependable for so long, a quality defender, but is just starting to slow down and lose some effectiveness. Taylor is still one of the best in the business, ever prepared to back himself and chance his arm.

Lachie Henderson has been brought in to play as a third defensive tall and potential swingman. He has often been maligned in his career, and has brought that on himself often enough, but he’s a very good footballer on his day.

Corey Enright is still the professional that keeps on keeping on. Watch him closely for a master class in decision-making whenever he has the ball in hand. Cam Guthrie is overqualified to play small defender, but is desperately required back there with the loss of Jackson Thurlow to an ACL.

Jimmy Bartel has spent time behind the ball in recent seasons, notably last year and 2013. He is bouncing off an injury-ruined 2015, where he played the least amount of matches since his debut season all the way back in 2002.

He’s got great hands and courage, but is not the greatest pure defender. His defensive strengths are sweeping up and sitting on the goal-line for that stray kick forward.

The backline named above is well and truly in the veteran class, with more than 1100 games experience between them. The unkind might describe it as slow and old, and they’d have a point. Are they going to be able to cover sides bringing the ball in quickly to a quality forward line? They couldn’t last year.

Andrew Mackie is another backline veteran, a bit soft, but will do the running link work as usual, and can play tall in a pinch. The impressive Jake Kolodjashnij will be eyeing off his spot, as there is some chance that Mackie is this year’s James Kelly.

Outside of that, Jed Bews is too dour for the modern game. Billie Smedts isn’t up to it. Josh Cowan may get a run.

Up forward, Geelong have been relying too heavily on Tom Hawkins for the last two years. We know he’s immovable in contested mark situations, but too many of his marks come that way, over half in 2015. He’s trimmed up over summer in order to more frequently push up the ground to win some easier ball.

Hawkins would ideally be supported by Mitch Clark, but who knows if we’re ever going to see him again. Nathan Vardy is fit and ready to play Round 1 for the first time in his career, and will get his chance to prove his credentials. Hopefully he can play continuous footy.

Cory Gregson and Darcy Lang, both effectively first year players in 2015 and unknowns prior to last season, provided plenty of spark and vitality to the Cats’ forward line. They’ll be looking to raise their games, and give every indication of being classy players in the long term.

Daniel Menzel was one of the stories of last year, returning after a full four years absence with a 20-disposal, four-goal game against Collingwood. If he can stay fit, he’ll add a dimension to this forward line that few other teams can match.

Lincoln McCarthy is highly rated internally, and will be given every chance to establish himself as the permanent small forward and pressure specialist. It shapes as a vibrant forward six.

The Cats’ backline will look familiar, and the forward line will have a different shape to anything we’ve seen from them before. But the middle is where all eyes will be.

With the addition of Patrick Dangerfield, the Geelong midfield now possesses two of the top six players in the game, with the other being Joel Selwood.

Dangerfield was rated the third best footballer in the competition in the view of our panel of Roar experts, and we all know why. A contested beast, wrecking ball and explosive out of stoppages, he hits like a freight train when near the ball.

Plus he’ll be good for 30-35 goals this year when resting forward as an impossible match-up. No wonder Cats fans have been going to sleep with a smile on their face since last year’s trade period.

Selwood cops much criticism from the uneducated due to his apparent ducking for free kicks. It’s doubtful anyone in the history of Australian rules football has had more desire for the ball than he. His strength of body and artful manoeuvres within a tackle are a joy to behold for the astute observer.

He can also impose his will on a contest that few can match. And now he’s got a partner-in-crime with the same attributes. This may just be Selwood’s best season yet.

Mitch Duncan, one of my personal favourites, leads the support crew. He makes good decisions and does everything with class. Josh Caddy has been the secondary inside mid behind Selwood, so it will be interesting to see how he develops with Dangerfield now coming in.

Steven Motlop is the outside polish and will rotate middle and forward, hitting the scoreboard regularly. He had a four-game stretch last season where he had 115 disposals and kicked seven goals. More of that please.

Mark Blicavs provides the x-factor, a unique presence in the league with his height and running ability. His football smarts and feel for the game have gone through the roof as he has become more experienced.

Rhys Stanley looked ready to realise his potential as a ruckman last year before being struck down with injury. He could be something special in the mould of a Paddy Ryder, but with extreme acceleration.

Behind Dangerfield, Zac Smith has been all the talk of the new recruits, tearing up the track and has looked good in the NAB Challenge. He’ll share ruck duties with Stanley, but is not as versatile as him.

Is there a place for both Stanley and Smith in the side, given each is best suited to the number one ruck role? It’s a question many clubs grapple with. Geelong have plenty of options for a relief ruckman if they want one of them to go solo, and can call on chip-in support from any of Blicavs, Clark or Vardy, depending on who’s playing. They couldn’t go with all of them, and would be foolish to try.

So the Cats have good depth in their tall department, if they can all get and stay fit, which is long odds. The rest of their depth is solid, with a number of mature players waiting in the wings, who can provide decent levels of service when called upon.

Geelong are looking to bounce right back into premiership contention after missing finals for the first time in a decade, and believe they’ve assembled the cattle to do so.

Their midfield is powerful and their forward line potentially dangerous, but they may have their issues down back. They’ll have to do a better job of implementing all-ground defence than they have in the past too. They’re in the ball game.

Predicted ladder spread: third-6th

Predicted finish: fifth

Best and fairest: Patrick Dangerfield

Leading goal-kicker: Tom Hawkins

All-Australian potential: Patrick Dangerfield, Joel Selwood, Harry Taylor, Mitch Duncan, Mark Blicavs, Steven Motlop

Rising Star candidates: Jake Kolodjashnij

Current ladder
5. Geelong
6. Richmond
7. Sydney
8. Greater Western Sydney
9. Collingwood
10. Adelaide
11. North Melbourne
12. Melbourne
13. Gold Coast
14. Port Adelaide
15. St Kilda
16. Brisbane
17. Carlton
18. Essendon