Golden Slipper day has delivered us a fantastic day of five Group 1 races. Yesterday, we looked at the George Ryder and Ranvet Stakes. Today, it’s the other three Group 1s.
Golden Slipper
A lot of people love it, some punters hate it, many purists have no time for it. But the greatest two-year-old scamper is always exciting.
The Blue Diamond has been a reasonable form race for the Slipper in recent years. Crystal Lily and Sepoy won the Slipper out of the Diamond, and there have been several others run well enough in the Slipper to finish top four.
Based on the betting, the Diamond has a stranglehold on the Slipper this year, with the quinella from the Caulfield race owning the first two positions in the market.
Extreme Choice took out the race, all power and speed. He tucked in behind the pace, a first for him, and was too quick, reeling off the quickest last 200 metres. He’s drawn to get the perfect run again, and if he reproduces his performance from three weeks ago, it’s hard to see him losing.
A couple of lengths in his arrears was stablemate Flying Artie, who had to come wide from the back, and while he had the quickest last 400 metres, the extra effort just told a little late. He was never going to win, but he could in the Slipper if things go his way.
Kiss and Make Up is a colt that’s named like a filly, and burst into Slipper calculations when winning the Todman as the rank outsider, leading from the front and sprinting away in a four-horse field.
He burst the Capitalist bubble that day, and clearly improved lengths on his debut win. If he’s taken as much improvement again, he is right in the frame.
A warning to those looking to back Kiss and Make Up – I backed him for the Slipper at $51 before his debut, and we know that the ‘overs Gods’ will punish me.
Capitalist won three races in dominant fashion from debut, each one better than the last, and was expected to simply rock up and win the Todman, but simply couldn’t match Kiss and Make Up in the straight.
The Silver Slipper form looks solid.
Astern is a nice type and value bet. His form ties into Capitalist, and the horse he beat into second in the Silver Slipper, Defcon, came out and franked the form with his Black Opal win.
Good Standing is another last start winner, taking out the Skyline on Blue Diamond day. He’ll want to have improved, but he’s not the finished product yet.
The fillies aren’t given much hope this year. Calliope will have supporters, putting her plain Melbourne run behind her with a victory in the Sweet Embrace when back home at Randwick. She might figure somewhere thereabouts, with the Waterhouse polish.
Can Extreme Choice be the first to do the Diamond/Slipper double since Sepoy? I think he can. Go the Vics!
Selections
1. Extreme Choice
2. Astern
3. Flying Artie
4. Kiss and Make Up
Rosehill Guineas
While Mick Price has the pre-race whip hand in the Slipper, he also has the very warm Rosehill Guineas favourite with Tarzino.
Tarzino bolted in the Victorian Derby back in the spring, and is clearly one of those horses that improves off the back of a Group 1 win, because his two return runs over unsuitable distances were superb, particularly last start when he went within a hair of taking out the Australian Guineas.
There can be no doubt he’d prefer Randwick to Rosehill, just as his best work so far has been at Flemington instead of Caulfield, so that might be a little query. Barrier two may not be the best help either, in a big field and track conditions unknown. There’s enough to risk there.
Jameka, another Victorian, is the second favourite, and has been good without dazzling in the autumn so far. She’s as honest as they come, with a touch of quality, and had a truly marvellous spring in mares grade only. Tougher now, and she appears under the odds a bit.
Le Romain took out the Randwick Guineas, and is one of those classic progressive autumn three-year-olds that wasn’t ready for the spring, but comes out and keeps improving sharply through the grades.
He’s one of a few that hasn’t raced beyond a mile, so there is always that query in these sort of races, as they step up in distance.
Vanbrugh is the fourth of the Group 1 winners in this race, having taken out the Spring Champion over 2000 metres back in October. The form out of that win hasn’t been awe-inspiring, but his two return runs have been sound enough as he builds back up in trip.
Waller is due to land a Group 1 too, as it’s been a week.
River Wild might be a bit of value and a horse to look at for the each-way punters. He was only a length and a half behind Tarzino in the Austalian Guineas, and beat Vanbrugh and Jameka home there.
There’s no speed in the race on paper, and it wouldn’t surprise if Waterhouse gives the instruction to Avdulla to go out and lead, and try and either pinch a break or try to out-tough them from the front.
Gold Ambition and Montaigne were the fast finishers in the Randwick Guineas, and neither had things go their way. Either could well have won that race, so they are huge chances over 2000 metres now.
The rest look to be making up the numbers, but if you had to throw a 100-1 shot into multiples, you could do worse than the Kiwi, Oh So Splendido.
Selections
1. Montaigne
2. River Wild
3. Tarzino
4. Le Romain
The Galaxy
Is the Galaxy a race of rare depth and complexity, or is it cut and dried? We’ll know more after the race! It looks a strong handicap.
Chautauqua found 58 kilograms too much to win with in the Newmarket last week. Can Terravista get the job done with the same weight here? How does this race stack up for depth and quality against the straight race?
He’ll get his chance to sit where Bowman likes from an inside gate, and he hasn’t seen a handicap in over a year. Fascinating.
Flamberge has the top weight again after a stunning Oakleigh Plate win, and will be ignored once more. He couldn’t, could he? Rebel Dane struggles to win, but is back to a handicap as well. Not quite up to winning at weight for age, he’ll appreciate a little bit of weight relief. Back from 1400 metres to 1100 doesn’t strike me as his thing.
Our Boy Malachi was disappointing when fancied in the Canterbury. He hasn’t been missed at the weights, that’s for sure. Famous Seamus can bounce back, and is extreme overs at 50-1. He hasn’t carried a weight this low since Bart Cummings was six.
Ball of Muscle was a touch disappointing first-up behind English in the Challenge Stakes, and gets blinkers for the first time now. He’ll appeal to many. Dothraki is generally a better second-up horse, and he was good in the Oakleigh Plate. Like many, he’s a chance at odds.
Lord of the Sky will either run first or last. If you want one extra for the quaddie, throw him in. The winning streak of Shiraz is over, but he finds himself quite nicely in at handicap conditions. He’s something of a forgotten horse here. Big watch and a strong hope.
Bounding is becoming a bit of a money muncher, and has never been my horse anyway. She might be yours. Lumosty might have as much pure sprinting talent as any horse in the field outside Terravista. Her best can only be produced if she gets right back and can come with one sizzling run.
Boss Lane was simply huge in the Challenge, and if you take that run on face value and think he can reproduce it, he goes in. Fell Swoop has a heart to match his talent, and is itching to win a Group 1 after going so close at Caulfield. If he can get the right run, he is the each-way lock.
English was a stunning victor of the Challenge Stakes first-up, but strikes as unders here as $4 favourite. Three-year-old filly in a big, robust field; she’s not as well in at the weights against some of her competition this time, and there’s a sense that she might be a little flat after being so primed first-up. There are reasons to risk her at the odds, but you can also find reasons to stick with her unquestioned!
Plenty of talent in the emergencies too. Pittsburgh Flyer was great in the Oakleigh Plate and won’t be the worse if she gets a run. Griante is going to win a good race soon. Back her if she runs in Race 9. Malaguerra looks a Group 1 winner in the making, and it could be here if he gets in. Miss Promiscuity will be outmatched.
Anything could happen here, and you’ll likely throw a blanket over eight of them at the finish. If you’ve been following any of these for a while, don’t jump off now, because anything can pop up here at 20-1.
Selections
1. Shiraz
2. Fell Swoop
3. Terravista
4. Lumosty
kv joef
Roar Guru
Great stuff Cam. Bet you sprang out of bed this morning. nothing like waking up on raceday knowing playing smart will make the day unbeatable :) . BTW, that horse you initially liked in last spring's emirates comes up well in the numbers in the last. Nice value for the exotics i would think. Liked your thoughts on Montaigne, he looked good in Rand Guineas when he finally got clear. stretched out well. we'll see whether he is a Derby contender here. Like many, i was v.impressed with Vanburgh in the AuGuineas, but no more than Tarzino. Really tough race with half the field as live chances. Jameka adds a nice touch. also, for Le Romain supporters ... don't be sad if he goes ordinary ... i already think he is a v.good horse but watching him after the R-Guineas - he was absolutely spent ... he had given it all and then some. but if he performs strongly it will be a super effort. Only top-line G-horses recover quickly from those types of efforts ... only one way to find out what you are dealing with, have a crack. As mentioned, this could be one of the great slippers with talent running so deep. My main betting interest will be the exotics. i like the two 'artie schillers'. do think DOliver picked the right one in Flying Artie (pre-diamond), even though i was enriched by his stablemate. Artie's run was there for everybody to see. pretty good. not discounting Extreme Choice for a nano-second, he is the real deal. he proved he could 'cop it' and then give some. KAMU and Capitalist are also among my contenders. agree about James Cummings Good Standing, the other 'Artie', as a work in progress. Still carries his head a little high. but boy, he is quick. he was heaps better last time with manners. James Cummings has done an excellent job with him. Really like his pedigree too - a real U.S blue-blood - worth a scary amount if he wins because the Americans will like this bloke. And i like him too, for this and into the future. Such a great GS and even haven't talked about the fillies, like Yankee Rose - legs going everywhere in both her early wins and DVanDyke having a FU crack - that's the spirit. Scarlet Rain, sits wide and runs time and it goes on and on ... Yep, great day's racing ... 'Oh, them golden slippers'
Razzar
Guest
Just a little more thought on the Galaxy. As you had mentioned Ball of Muscle "now with blinkers" & the benifit of a softer track, confirmed. Does bring him into contention. Last start from barrier one, he did work to hold his position, and may have had its toll late. He's not a punters pal, but the hcp conditions makes him a real chance on an each way basis. Reckon 11/1 or above is a good price.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Haha, thanks Ryan, I'll certainly be barracking for him, that's for sure! I reckon he's ready to go. Should run well for me anyway! Yeah, he's starting to be a bit of a street-corner tip, Flying Artie. Gathering momentum. Yep, I'm with you on Tarzino. I'm not confident on anything else though, finding it hard to separate them. A great days racing ahead!
ryan
Roar Rookie
I think you're onto a winner Cam. Don't want to jinx you, but Tom Melbourne, into Tally, into Shiraz...... Shiraz ticks LOTS of boxes. Loves the track, distance, soft, 2nd up. Yes please! I've got the quinella with Fell Swoop as well as you but I really hope Shiraz comes in for you. Although if Malaguerra runs then all bets are off. Good luck mate. Flying Artie in the Slipper for me. Can spank EC if both get equal running and Price said he'll run more forward tomorrow. Needs much less luck. Lay Tarzino in the Guinneas. First run in Sydney, gate 2 in a big field and he likes to get back, Sydney traffic really is horrible. Jameka and Vanbrugh for me. And Shards is OVERS. Winx is also a lay at her current price. Minimum $2 in that field. A ripping days racing, enjoy!
andrew
Guest
Bend (very uncertain of track condition, but will assume its soft) 1 – two faves have no wet track form at all. Big unders. The French import for hayes wouldn’t need to be a star to win this, and 1400m on a big track in a race of good speed seems a good kick of point. Hall a good engagement in race choc full of apprentices and horse has wet form. 3 – wouldn’t be surprised if manga rossa is just a bit too good for them here, comes off a freshen up, but not a spell, should be pretty fit. mallyon knows the horse well. shocked if it didn’t handle any give being by magnus. Probably a target race given VOBIS bonuses, and she is def open sat grade class for mine with a good turn of foot, and her form over summer was in form races much stronger than that of a BM70 grade. 6 – samartested. The 3 runs this prep have been full of merit. Brave 1st up in a fast run race down the straight against the males, half a length of them 2nd up in a good form race, and then crossed the line with some good ones who have since won such as waiwail and felicienne in the azkedellia race at caul where the form has hot. 4th up in this this, she should be fully fit and if she is ever going to win a stks race this is it. Accept there are few negative (weight scale, wet track, barrier), but that’s why she is $12. 7 –Gen groove is the only runner either not 1st up or 2nd up, his currnet form is very good. down in the weight, perfect draw, he will run well. but he is vulnerable and doesn’t win often, but its all about placement, and he gets his chance. One of the fresh horses could fluke a huge run that leaps above the steady level gen groove is as, so he is no moral, but you have to rate him on top. A good place bet for multi players the very least. 8- pretty keen silent sedition here who should camp just of the speed and show the accellaration she showed last spring and 1st up. she was running the quickest last 200/400m not only for her race last spring, but was in the top 2-3 last 200/400m of the day twice on days where the crème was racing (accept this can be flattering as its tempo dependent), but its still and indicator of quality. I think she will drift from her current price so wait until sat. Geel 4 – I will have a small bet on reel way, but couldn’t tip him strongly, but he would win this on his best form, its just he is pretty inconsistent type. But he does go well fresh, does like wet ground, is a winner this track, and finds himself in a very weak 58 rating race, and is sure to be reasonable odds. Syd 4 – ranvet is fascinating race. really keen to see how storm the stars goes up to 2000m. a serious quality horse, who will strip fitter for 1st up run. waller has rated him as good as reliable man. A horse of its calibre wont be saluting without me on board at $9. Given several of these are former UK horses (or like criterion have UK form), any UK bookmaker would have this horse $2. But of course, that is on their ‘old’ form back in the UK. Still, the trainers of there are no mugs, and he is in the best stable over here too. no doubt needs to improve on 1st up run, hopefully he does. 8 – fell swoop just has too many positives for me under the hcp conditions to ignore. Proven its up to this class (at hcp level) with its fresh run, but hasn’t paid the penalty for this at the weights. At lot of these up in the weights are good horses, but have found their mark. Numerous down in the weight don’t have the same profile. By profile, I mean a winning habit, and that each time the bar it raised it responds. Unbeaten 2nd up, unbeaten at the track, perfect barrier to sit just off the speed – not too wide, but not on the rails, handles all tracks. Consistent horses, overall record outstanding. These are the type of horses you want to be on in a big hcp race. Best (on a very tough weekend given uncertain track conditions) : general groove, silent sedition, fell swoop
JOHNY BULLDOG
Roar Rookie
Are you out there Andrew? I know your a Melbourne man but I'd love your thoughts on Sydney tomorrow mate :)
Cameron Rose
Expert
I can't lay claim to any great strategy with picking KAMU at 50's. I was in the pub after the Orr Stakes meeting having one too many and ran into a mate I used to play footy with who happens to be a part owner of it. He was giving it a good wrap, saying how Gai thought it was her top Slipper chance, so I threw a few dollars on it. I've gotten two Cups doubles up in my time, back-to-back. God only knows how many I've put on though. Got Mummify / Makybe Diva at 180-1 and Elvstroem / Makybe Diva at 225-1. They were happy days!
kv joef
Roar Guru
that was a great sunrise bet for you Cam, 50s ... really well done ... don't worry about the 'overlay' gods but it does remind me of a bet of mine a lifetime ago ... as a younger fella, i become certain that i had the horses that would win the Cups double. so when the first doubles charts showed up in the snail-mail (pre-weights). that's they way they did it in those days ... seeing v.high double-figures about my picks, i backed the double for a month with every bit of loose change i could find. as the spring progressed, my CC pick, How Now started fav and won easily. My double completing pick for the MC was the jB.Cummings trained-John Duggan ridden, Gold and Black. on Derby Day Gld&Blk won the mackinnon coming from last (57kg) and was dropping to only 50kgs in the Cup --- how could he be beaten? ... Alas, i was over-confident and happy to let my huge return ride. Then, 30mins before the MCup, the rain came, and came and came and so then in the bog ... so did Van der Hum. So, for all my cleverness, i left with nothing. A lesson well learned :) and not repeated.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Top analysis KV. I might have to have a nibble at the BMW before he jumps...
Cameron Rose
Expert
Fell Swoop just look an each-way lock doesn't he, as much as one could be in this sort of race. Track is a tick, barrier is a tick, second-up is a tick, 1100m good. No flash odds, but maybe $6-$7 on the day? Agree on Tarzino. May win here, but next start yes. Yeah, a bit of slop. Justin and I disagreed on the Ranvet actually, I probably wouldn't downgraded, but I was happy with his reasoning. Some G1's have up-and-down years though. The Caulfield Stakes has had some really down years.
kv joef
Roar Guru
"... everyone deserted Mongolian Khan?" Not this boy. thought he ran great FU. the ChipNorton paddock-parade commentary suggested fitness ... i thought the run would wind-him-out and tighten him up. to be beaten only 7lens in a sub 94s mile bordered on heroic - no wonder he hit the 200m saying "oooh gee, i got stitch, need to slow down :) ". like this time last year over the same trip ... and the over the same trip during the spring, before the CC, i'd be very surprised if he didn't show although i'm not expecting victory in this but a performance that should see him start a lot shorter than his $10, 3rd fav quote, he is currently for the BMW, another rip-snorter of a race. In short, Mongolian Khan is one of the best we've got ... if not the best stayer.
JOHNY BULLDOG
Roar Rookie
What a great days racing gents,enjoy & best of luck to all-I'm having a crack at: * Winks * Vanbrugh * Good Standing * Terravista * Sultry Feeling..............Give em strength :)
Darren Clayton
Roar Rookie
Agree with your thoughts about Our Boy Malachi. I love the horse but his only win above G3 level was his Expressway win against only 6 horses with only Solicit to go on to anything more in my opinion. Plus he defied a huge betting drift that day which is always cautionary. Fell Swoop for me- interesting to read that Matthew Dale has employed the exact same preparation as when he won over 110m at Rosehill back in August, 2nd up after a 3 week break from his 1st up effort. I 'found' Le Romain in the Randwick Guineas so owe it to him to stay on board. I can see Tarzinjo stuck in traffic (who I am on in the derby) and dont see any with the brilliant turn of foot that Press Statement showed to nearly catch Le Romain. He can go again. Interesting after your calendar restructure that you kept the Ranvet and then this field gets served up. And hasnt everyone deserted Mongolian Khan?. I am going to stick with him and forgive his Chipping NOrton effort. Back to 2000m and if they ride him just a touch further back than when 1st up I think we might see the real #MKR! Slipper not my race, find it very hard to line form up and always some ducks and drakes with the trainers. What a day!
Pepper Jack
Guest
A reminder that Melbourne horses always find it hard to go around Rosehill the first time.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Fair bit of talk for Flying Artie to turn the tables. I think Extreme Choice will be a lot closer to the front than that, and yeah, Star Turn is massive odds. I sense I'll be having a place bet on him at least. Yep, the Galaxy is definitely a field job for some multiples.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Thanks Ads. Yeah, the Aus Guineas looked a much deeper race didn't it. Press Statement really should have won, but there were other hard luck stories too. That winner just keeps stepping up though. I'm looking for a bit of value outside Tarzino, but if this was at Randwick, I couldn't have enough on him. Agree on Lumosty. So many good chances. Wide in the quaddie!
Cameron Rose
Expert
Thanks KV, should be a great day. If I was betting, I might have an each-way tickle on Astern, but I'll just cheer KAMU on! Maybe a place bet or two. Love that comment about just keep swinging. Ride their horse like they're going to win, and see if they do!
Cameron Rose
Expert
Yep, and 1100m can be a bit of a specialists distance too. Or so they say anyway.
Razzar
Guest
Not always my go-to race the Slipper, but the others are so dam hard in my book. With good pace from out wide by Scarlet rain and Astern plus a few others, it should allow the winner to come from any position. Extreme chioce and Flying Artie meet a strong field of competitive 2yos. Both likely to be settling midfield with cover, along with the likes of Star Turn and Good Standing. From this position, luck in running is likely to be a huge factor in this helter skelter. At their current prices, Extreme Chioce is a risk, 9/4 is too short. Flying Artie I rate at 7/2 so is value. Good Standing has potential to become a serious racehorse. Just hope he doesn't get too forward in race. I rate him a 7/1 chance. Star turn is my blow out chance, the bigger track can allow him bring out his best. 14/1 for mine. The Galaxy, or is it The Impossible. But I will have a tri, the two unluckiest runners Terravista and Fell swoop, to run first or second & field third. Good luck punters.
Adam Page
Roar Guru
Excellent preview Cam I think the Australian Guineas form just looks much deeper/better than that of the Randwick Guineas hence why I've tipped Tarzino to beat Vanbrugh and River Wild. The winner of the Randwick Guineas was given a 12/10 and for mine is a 1400m horse, so that form line is suspect. As for the Galaxy, if the rain stays away, I think Lumosty represents great value. She will love a track with give in it, and is right down in the weights. I wouldn't touch Boss Lane. He is an absolute dud at Rosehill. Wait til he gets back to Randwick.