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Golden Slipper day has delivered us a fantastic day of five Group 1 races. Yesterday, we looked at the George Ryder and Ranvet Stakes. Today, it’s the other three Group 1s.
Golden Slipper
A lot of people love it, some punters hate it, many purists have no time for it. But the greatest two-year-old scamper is always exciting.
The Blue Diamond has been a reasonable form race for the Slipper in recent years. Crystal Lily and Sepoy won the Slipper out of the Diamond, and there have been several others run well enough in the Slipper to finish top four.
Based on the betting, the Diamond has a stranglehold on the Slipper this year, with the quinella from the Caulfield race owning the first two positions in the market.
Extreme Choice took out the race, all power and speed. He tucked in behind the pace, a first for him, and was too quick, reeling off the quickest last 200 metres. He’s drawn to get the perfect run again, and if he reproduces his performance from three weeks ago, it’s hard to see him losing.
A couple of lengths in his arrears was stablemate Flying Artie, who had to come wide from the back, and while he had the quickest last 400 metres, the extra effort just told a little late. He was never going to win, but he could in the Slipper if things go his way.
Kiss and Make Up is a colt that’s named like a filly, and burst into Slipper calculations when winning the Todman as the rank outsider, leading from the front and sprinting away in a four-horse field.
He burst the Capitalist bubble that day, and clearly improved lengths on his debut win. If he’s taken as much improvement again, he is right in the frame.
A warning to those looking to back Kiss and Make Up – I backed him for the Slipper at $51 before his debut, and we know that the ‘overs Gods’ will punish me.
Capitalist won three races in dominant fashion from debut, each one better than the last, and was expected to simply rock up and win the Todman, but simply couldn’t match Kiss and Make Up in the straight.
The Silver Slipper form looks solid.
Astern is a nice type and value bet. His form ties into Capitalist, and the horse he beat into second in the Silver Slipper, Defcon, came out and franked the form with his Black Opal win.
Good Standing is another last start winner, taking out the Skyline on Blue Diamond day. He’ll want to have improved, but he’s not the finished product yet.
The fillies aren’t given much hope this year. Calliope will have supporters, putting her plain Melbourne run behind her with a victory in the Sweet Embrace when back home at Randwick. She might figure somewhere thereabouts, with the Waterhouse polish.
Can Extreme Choice be the first to do the Diamond/Slipper double since Sepoy? I think he can. Go the Vics!
Selections
1. Extreme Choice
2. Astern
3. Flying Artie
4. Kiss and Make Up
Rosehill Guineas
While Mick Price has the pre-race whip hand in the Slipper, he also has the very warm Rosehill Guineas favourite with Tarzino.
Tarzino bolted in the Victorian Derby back in the spring, and is clearly one of those horses that improves off the back of a Group 1 win, because his two return runs over unsuitable distances were superb, particularly last start when he went within a hair of taking out the Australian Guineas.
There can be no doubt he’d prefer Randwick to Rosehill, just as his best work so far has been at Flemington instead of Caulfield, so that might be a little query. Barrier two may not be the best help either, in a big field and track conditions unknown. There’s enough to risk there.
Jameka, another Victorian, is the second favourite, and has been good without dazzling in the autumn so far. She’s as honest as they come, with a touch of quality, and had a truly marvellous spring in mares grade only. Tougher now, and she appears under the odds a bit.
Le Romain took out the Randwick Guineas, and is one of those classic progressive autumn three-year-olds that wasn’t ready for the spring, but comes out and keeps improving sharply through the grades.
He’s one of a few that hasn’t raced beyond a mile, so there is always that query in these sort of races, as they step up in distance.
Vanbrugh is the fourth of the Group 1 winners in this race, having taken out the Spring Champion over 2000 metres back in October. The form out of that win hasn’t been awe-inspiring, but his two return runs have been sound enough as he builds back up in trip.
Waller is due to land a Group 1 too, as it’s been a week.
River Wild might be a bit of value and a horse to look at for the each-way punters. He was only a length and a half behind Tarzino in the Austalian Guineas, and beat Vanbrugh and Jameka home there.
There’s no speed in the race on paper, and it wouldn’t surprise if Waterhouse gives the instruction to Avdulla to go out and lead, and try and either pinch a break or try to out-tough them from the front.
Gold Ambition and Montaigne were the fast finishers in the Randwick Guineas, and neither had things go their way. Either could well have won that race, so they are huge chances over 2000 metres now.
The rest look to be making up the numbers, but if you had to throw a 100-1 shot into multiples, you could do worse than the Kiwi, Oh So Splendido.
Selections
1. Montaigne
2. River Wild
3. Tarzino
4. Le Romain
The Galaxy
Is the Galaxy a race of rare depth and complexity, or is it cut and dried? We’ll know more after the race! It looks a strong handicap.
Chautauqua found 58 kilograms too much to win with in the Newmarket last week. Can Terravista get the job done with the same weight here? How does this race stack up for depth and quality against the straight race?
He’ll get his chance to sit where Bowman likes from an inside gate, and he hasn’t seen a handicap in over a year. Fascinating.
Flamberge has the top weight again after a stunning Oakleigh Plate win, and will be ignored once more. He couldn’t, could he? Rebel Dane struggles to win, but is back to a handicap as well. Not quite up to winning at weight for age, he’ll appreciate a little bit of weight relief. Back from 1400 metres to 1100 doesn’t strike me as his thing.
Our Boy Malachi was disappointing when fancied in the Canterbury. He hasn’t been missed at the weights, that’s for sure. Famous Seamus can bounce back, and is extreme overs at 50-1. He hasn’t carried a weight this low since Bart Cummings was six.
Ball of Muscle was a touch disappointing first-up behind English in the Challenge Stakes, and gets blinkers for the first time now. He’ll appeal to many. Dothraki is generally a better second-up horse, and he was good in the Oakleigh Plate. Like many, he’s a chance at odds.
Lord of the Sky will either run first or last. If you want one extra for the quaddie, throw him in. The winning streak of Shiraz is over, but he finds himself quite nicely in at handicap conditions. He’s something of a forgotten horse here. Big watch and a strong hope.
Bounding is becoming a bit of a money muncher, and has never been my horse anyway. She might be yours. Lumosty might have as much pure sprinting talent as any horse in the field outside Terravista. Her best can only be produced if she gets right back and can come with one sizzling run.
Boss Lane was simply huge in the Challenge, and if you take that run on face value and think he can reproduce it, he goes in. Fell Swoop has a heart to match his talent, and is itching to win a Group 1 after going so close at Caulfield. If he can get the right run, he is the each-way lock.
English was a stunning victor of the Challenge Stakes first-up, but strikes as unders here as $4 favourite. Three-year-old filly in a big, robust field; she’s not as well in at the weights against some of her competition this time, and there’s a sense that she might be a little flat after being so primed first-up. There are reasons to risk her at the odds, but you can also find reasons to stick with her unquestioned!
Plenty of talent in the emergencies too. Pittsburgh Flyer was great in the Oakleigh Plate and won’t be the worse if she gets a run. Griante is going to win a good race soon. Back her if she runs in Race 9. Malaguerra looks a Group 1 winner in the making, and it could be here if he gets in. Miss Promiscuity will be outmatched.
Anything could happen here, and you’ll likely throw a blanket over eight of them at the finish. If you’ve been following any of these for a while, don’t jump off now, because anything can pop up here at 20-1.
Selections
1. Shiraz
2. Fell Swoop
3. Terravista
4. Lumosty