Before the season I said it was likely the Waratahs wouldn’t make much noise this year. Watching them tamely go down to the Rebels confirmed my thoughts.
The Rebels aren’t bad, but they aren’t especially good either. The truth is, the Waratahs have fallen a long way since they won their first grand final in 2014 and even since their purple patches last year.
Because NSW is a large state, Tahs talk in the media and places like The Roar comment section tends to be delivered looking through spectacles with the slightest of rose tints. Their perennial February-champions status is one example. That might explain why some didn’t agree with my lowly assessment of their chances in pre-season.
Their squad depth was never anywhere strong enough to compete with the best this season. As Brett McKay said yesterday, the remarkable feat of the current Chiefs juggernaut is they are doing it with players in the injury ward. Other teams at the pointy end have extremely capable benches to supplement their stars.
This year injuries to Tatafu Polota-Nau, Bernard Foley and Kurtley Beale have already shown the Waratahs’ fragile depth at key positions.
Jack Dempsey looks a lively sort, but he is 21, has played only a handful of senior club matches, and is starting in Super Rugby. Other options on the side of the scrum behind Dave Dennis and Michael Hooper are barely worth investigating.
Israel Folau is the sole full-time fullback in the squad. Beale can play there, but would surely be picked at No.12 over David Horwitz given the choice. Supplementary squad players Henry Clunies-Ross and Harry Jones are the only other options.
With Beale injured, if Foley was to get hurt last weekend, Horwitz would have been the Waratahs’ flyhalf.
Those names aren’t names of a championship side entering the third year of its prime. They aren’t rubbish either, especially if the first XV could stay on the field, but we’re talking about Super Rugby; it’s the toughest competition in the world.
Pointing to Michael Hooper, Beale, Folau and Foley and saying you have four genuine world-class players isn’t enough anymore.
This is a rebuilding squad, plain and simple. No one is admitting it but it’s true. It’s enlightening to remember just how different the 2014 Waratahs were to the ones that we see today.
Sekope Kepu, Jacques Potgeiter, Mitchell Chapman, Kane Douglas and Pat McCutcheon were in the Waratahs’ victorious Super Rugby squad but have since departed for greener pastures. And that’s just the forwards.
Adam Ashley-Cooper, Peter Betham, Alofa Alofa, Cam Crawford, Jono Lance and Brendan McKibbin are some of the backs from two years ago.
If you add the advancing age of Benn Robinson and Wycliff Palu to that list of departures, then you build a picture of a vastly different team.
Not every departure was an Ashley-Cooper or Potgeiter, but many were quality squad-depth at Super Rugby level. Their replacements haven’t yet attained a similar status and it shows.
As a quick aside, I’ll take a moment to be thankful for that one championship, as a NSW fan. The Waratahs had a very short window where the timing was right – great coach, strong squad-depth, established stars, eager youngsters – and they nailed their moment.
So, the Waratahs are rebuilding, not contending; what sort of building should we expect?
Will Skelton needs to take another step and become an every-week monster. It isn’t enough for him to be powerful for ten or 15 minutes of each game anymore. If the Waratahs’ pack are to be consistently good they need him to become their enforcer. He needs to bend and break the line, not just fall through it. He must also stop dropping the ball.
Handling mistakes aren’t just the domain of Skelton and they are eerily reminiscent of 2013, the first year of Michael Cheika’s stewardship, where the team was adjusting and the lack of clarity showed. This year’s team is unsure and poor skills are amplifying that. As they learn how to play to Daryl Gibson’s patterns and with new players the handling should sure up.
The first-up tackling has been horrible this year and it could definitely improve before the season’s end. They are still employing a rush defence often, as is in vogue, but the line is jagged instead of flat and consistent. That leaves holes all over the place for short passes, offloads and shifty footwork to exploit. Improving that is a matter of time, communication and commitment.
We haven’t seen the best of Foley or Folau yet this year. Foley has only just returned from injury and Folau is partly the victim of poor structure and handling. But they are genuine stars now and need to find ways to take control of games. Their young team needs it.
If all of these improvements are made this year, could they still sneak into the playoffs? I doubt it. But it would signal the team is getting ready to re-load next year, rather than continuing the decline and drain seen since the championship team.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
Bear, where the issue lies is that due to the advanced S & C from Uni, these players look better prepared to the next level than other clubs.
bear54
Fossicking for players in the same gold (and blue) mine appears doesn't appear to be turning up too many nuggets recently??
Paulo
Roar Rookie
New players recruited into the 2016 squad: 7 Sydney Stars (NRC) 2 NSW Country Eagles (NRC) 2 NH Rays (NRC) 1 Sydney Rams (NRC) 1 NSW Schools 1 NSW Under-20s 1 Reds Development Squad 1 Blues 1 Toyota 1 Hawke's Bay 1 Parramatta Eels (NRL) I tabulated the data because I thought there wasn't a bias, but the numbers say there is (the Stars are heavily Sydney Uni based), at least this year (I didn't look at previous years).
Paulo
Roar Rookie
Ralph, then we are on the same page, agree. Its easier to achieve short term success than long term, only a strong culture in the overall organisation can reach that. Rugby is a team sport, but it doesn't stop with the 15 on the field. Doesn't mean you'll win every year, even the best teams have ups and downs. That said, Waratah's track record over the past decade or so isn't bad, three finals and three semi-finals. Just the throfts seem very deep (and this looks like the beginning of a throft). Seems more like a case of correcting errors and improving the culture than a complete shambles.
ClarkeG
Guest
don't you mean a rash and rare decision by the referee?
Ralph
Guest
My point being; performance is measured across the whole of an organisation and the focus on 'quality of cattle' isn't the solution. Two great examples are the Chiefs and the Crusaders. The Chiefs because for many many many years their playing roster was chock full of promise that failed to deliver. Then they started building a dynasty. Take a close look at what they did - as an organisation. It wasn't driven by changing the player roster. It was a cultural change that started at the top. The Crusaders because on the surface of it there is no clear obvious reason for the record that can explained by this player or that coach alone. It's only if you dig into how they go about their business you start to see the depth of organisational culture at work. Players and coaches can create a stunning season or two. Only a culture can deliver a dynasty that endures past individual brilliance.
concerned supporter
Guest
NSW WARATAHS SQUAD includes 14 players from Sydney Uni.Some from Randwick, Manly,Eastwood,Sth District, Parramatta & Gordon. NONE from Easts, Norths,Warringah,West Harbour & Penrith. PS : Israel Folou is registered as a Syd Uni player.
bear54
Is it possible the Waratahs recruitment problems stem from focusing on players from Sydney Uni First, Second & Third XV's and generally ignoring everyone else?
OJP
Guest
Thanks for the reply Bear; thats all very reasonable and I am happy to agree with your comments regards Foley, Beale and Samuels (although I confess that I was quite amused by his verbals towards Warne). Beyond that though, I especially concur with your observations about how players are judged. cheers OJP
John
Guest
My two cents. There is a serious problem with rugby administration in this country. First the coaches then the player trainers, developers, scouts and whoever else you want to identify. We have three decent coaches with an element of success - Mackenzie, Cheika and Jones. They all played together at Randwick. There is no way that is coincidence. Larkham shows promise but aside from that we get retreads like the rubbish the Reds and Force dish out. Its pathetic. Same with players coming through to Super Rugby. Basis skills - catch, pass, and tackle - are just missing. That has to be coaching and structures across the board below the Super level. As for talent development - its pathetic. Everything Elisha and TWAS have said is spot on. Look at the Crusaders under Deans, the Chiefs under Rennie etc and you see a culture of success. The Reds and Waratahs had one fleeting year of success which they built up to and then fell away from. Maybe Robinson hit the nail of the head.
purerugby
Roar Rookie
We keep hearing what a champion side this Waratahs team is, however in reality they are not in the same class as the real SR Teams. IMO they didn't really win the 2014 comp - they were gifted it by a rash [and rare] decision from the Crusaders that resulted in Foley being handed a long shot at the posts. Would they be the champion team that's talked about now if that hadn't happened in 2014?? However let's stop referring to them as champions until they've earned their stripes, which will be difficult with the succession plan that NSW Rugby currently has in place.
kingplaymaker
Roar Guru
'Israel Folau is the sole full-time fullback in the squad. Beale can play there' Hang on, Beale was virtually the best full back in the world and the Wallaby incumbent for a long time until Cheika decided to put Folau at 15.
Lara
Guest
Does that mean the Wallabies will be in rebuilding phase as will since the Tahs is a shadow test team......get it " shadow "
Luke Ringland
Guest
I actually think the backs are looking good, with the patterns of play definitely creating problems for every team they've played. They gave 30 points to the chiefs and I think 19 to the Rebels and almost won both. And the backrow of Dempsey, Hooper and Holloway is also looking good, especially if Dempsey improves offer the ball, where he is showing potential. Hooper's relatively weak cleanout relative to his speed to the breakdown is an ongoing issue, easily the weakest part of his game. The problem is the forward play. Broadly. Set piece, but also at ruck time, they're not playing as a cohesive unit. Quick ball has been limited, and there's also a lot of slow ball. I think the defence is fine technically, but when you're forwards aren't creating problems at ruck time for the opposition, you're ramping up the pressure on yourselves. And then there are the penalties...oh the penalties.
Paulo
Roar Rookie
We are discussing the season, not individual games. I watched that game,it was great. Chiefs won the championship and had their own restructuring to do in the last couple of years. They are showing that you can handle the restructuring well and promote young talent (lesson for the Tahs to observe and learn). Few teams manage to keep an ongoing high performance, the Crusaders were one such case.
bear54
The top 5 players in a position (no matter which sport) around the world would be considered elite in my opinion. I don't believe Foley or Beale are elite but they have represented Australia 19 and 50 times respectively therefore they are world class. Marlon Samuels represented the Windies against the other nations for about a decade therefore he's world class..... and whilst I don't agree with his bizarre comments about Warne I do agree with the sentiment. What I really disagree with is the pervading attitude on The Roar that a player is either completely hopeless or insanely brilliant. There is never any middle ground and it comes across as childish and petulant by some of our fellow Roarers.
Boomeranga
Guest
Sean McMahon played U20s, Super Rugby and Wallabies in one year.
Scrumma
Guest
Could be another 18 years before the Waratahs win another title with the help of the right officials.
Machooka
Roar Guru
Spanners... never suggested that Zac was a scapegoat. Rather it was a question in context as regards to young Kellaway.
Spanners
Guest
You make a good point with the promotion of the U20s and in particular Damian McKenzie. Would an Aussie Super Rugby coach giving a 20 yr old, untried, 1.75m, 81kg fly-half the starting fullback jersey. Do yourself a favour and watch these highlights. Keep in mind, these aren't spliced together from a career or even a season. These are from the 6 rounds of rugby played in 2016 (check out time 3.38 where he gets pole-axed on the halfway and then scores in the corner. Class...) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jBbGwPaOANU