At some stage in every Australian cricketer’s life, there is a dream that is there to play cricket for their nation.
This article will explore what the mathematical chances are of becoming a cricketer, without taking into account skill at the sport. This article will only take into consideration the chances of the men.
So, let’s begin by stating that there are 20 Australian male contracts that are available at any one time. There are at least 900,000 men registered to play the sport in 2016.
Straight off of the bat, there is a 0.002 per cent chance that any Australian cricketer is playing for Australia. But these values are including the younger kids.
If we go from the age groups of 13+, it is a little bit more promising for us. There are 369,000 Australian males aged 13+ playing the game.
These statistics increase the chance of Australian Representation to 0.0054 per cent. In English, this means that one in every 18,450 Australian cricketers play for Australia.
These statistics are a little bit depressing but if we broaden the scope to include the pathway, it is a little bit more promising.
There are six states that hand out 120 contracts. A state player has a 17 per cent chance of playing for Australia.
The natural progression to state level comes from the first-grade teams that the district clubs put together in the states’ capitals.
Using the knowledge that shows there are 100 grade cricket clubs it can be assumed that there would be roughly 1100 first grade players.
These first-grade players have an 11 per cent chance of playing for a state and a 1.8 per cent chance of playing for Australia. Even if a player plays in a grade for their club they have a 1.8 per cent chance of playing for a state and a 0.3 per cent chance of playing for Australia.
As stated at the start, these statistics do not take into account skill, hard-work and a little bit of luck.
If you want to be an Australian cricketer the easiest way to do so is to grasp any opportunity to prove yourself and use it, no matter whether you are a bowler or batsman.
Johnno
Guest
You say like 900K men registered in OZ do you mean any age group e.g. U-10's up to Senior Aussie team? As you say 370K 13 and above are you saying like 530K registered kids playing cricket under-13?
Brendon the 1st
Guest
If your last name is Marsh then you statistically have a 100% chance to play for your country.
The Bush
Roar Guru
Too kinda, you get your green one inside your blue one I'm told...
Joshua Treadwell
Roar Rookie
You could still be one of those 18450 Australians if that makes you feel any better.
Joshua Treadwell
Roar Rookie
Thanks for the advice, Will go into a bit more depth in future. JT
Pope Paul VII
Guest
Ha Ha plus Laughy face! Thank Julian, good tip.
The Bush
Roar Guru
Exactly, people take up sport because it's fun, because their friends are playing, because their mum and dad love it etc. I don't think too many six years olds can even appreciate "playing for Australia'.
Craig Swanson
Guest
Not another NSW conspiracy theorist.
Craig Swanson
Guest
If every 14 year old was told by his dad that he had a one in 18,000 + chance of playing for Australia do you think the boy or girl would want to continue playing. Also would any parent bother to drive said child to and from games if that was the case. Having said that, I believe most people take up the sport because they like it not because they harbor a strong desire to one day play for their country. It is only once they are playing and discover that they are pretty good that they want to take the sport further. Attitude is also a big thing on whether a promising cricketer takes the next step. If the desire and drive does not match the talent then it is likely he or she has no future in the game.
offsider
Guest
If you make the NSW team than you are probably a 50/50 chance of playing for Australia.
Tom Rock
Expert
Not sure whether to feel depressed or discouraged.
Paul D
Roar Guru
Plenty of masters tournaments in indoor cricket. Played in a practice match yesterday at Toombul against the over 40's qld side, a more crafty bunch of tweakers and guile soaked seamers you will never find. When you get to that age it's all about using your brain rather than brawn, more than a couple of gunts on display under those tightly stretched QLD shirts and they still won comfortably.
Julian King
Roar Guru
Geeze Paul, don't let Aussie team management find out you bowled 100 in a row. Your workload will be "managed" lest you enter the red zone. I hear Masters T20 tournaments are on the up....
Johnno
Guest
I would loved Geoff Lemon to of played for Australia he loves the game as much as any good aussie bloke. On ya Geoff lol
Johnno
Guest
Dave Warner Ponting Pup Watto were the chosen ones not Johnno, damn it lol
Pope Paul VII
Guest
Never too old to start Julian. I'm nearly 50 and bowled 100 consecutive balls yesterday, just for fun. Taking into account my previous "experience" but adding on that I'll have to work until I'm at least 70, I reckon I'll be t20 ready by age 75.
Julian King
Roar Guru
What about applying the ten thousand hour principle to a kid with a modicum of talent and manufacture a T20 bowler? That equates to approximately three hours a day for ten years.
twodogs
Guest
The rest of the article was titled 'what are your chances of becoming a professional journalist'. But they are worse than the cricket stats so he omitted it? Just jokin JT. But Tommy H is probably right, could have a little more content. But the subject matter is on the money - your chances of playing for Australia are next to effall.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
You must have been pretty handy though Baz. I had to look Stock Sport up.
Rellum
Roar Guru
If you are not identified by the age of 19 forget it.