Selection for Game 1 is key to winning State of Origin

In the lead up to this year’s State of Origin series there will be plenty of passionate discussion about who should be picked for the 2016 NSW and Queensland Origin teams.

Should NSW clean the deck after last year’s Game 3 embarrassment? If injury hits Queensland should they backflip on their ban of Anthony Milford, Dylan Napa, Cameron Munster and co?

Analysis of the last 25 Origin series back to 1991 (when interchange was introduced at Origin level) show that overwhelmingly the team that use the least number of players in an Origin series emerges the victor.

In fact only on six occasions has the team using more players lifted the shield at the end of a series. If you use 25 players or more you are virtually guaranteed to lose the series.

Only in 2004 – on the back of a Brad Fittler comeback – has a team won the series, with NSW using 27 players in that year.

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In 2002 Queensland retained the trophy with a drawn series by using 26 players. Queensland has never used more than 26 players and the two years (2009 and 2010) that NSW used more than 30 players, represent probably the darkest period in Blues Origin history.

On the other hand if your state uses 20 players or less you are almost guaranteed to emerge victorious. There have been 11 series victories when using 20 players or less. The only loss was NSW in 2015 when both teams used 20 players for the series.

There are two major factors in how many players are used in a series. Injury and selection policy. Injuries can’t be controlled, but selection policy can.

The team that picks and sticks throughout a series is far more likely to be lifting the shield. If the selectors are to wield the axe on incumbent players the best time to do that is before Game 1. Mid-series selection changes particularly in key positions such as the halves, hooker and fullback are almost certainly a death knell to your states hopes of winning.

So this raises the stakes for making the right decisions for the opening origin on first June.

Aside from a few injuries causing openings in the outside backs, the Queensland team essentially picks itself.

For Laurie Daley and the NSW selectors, getting it right for Game 1 is huge. There is no room to try and change mid-series particularly in key positions. Daley needs to make the decision upfront who he wants in key positions and barring injury he needs to stick with it to be any hope of upsetting Queensland.

When Laurie Daley only used 20 players across last year’s series he had the right idea. However it was definitely proven that while he had the right idea he had the wrong troops – particularly in the halves.

The last time NSW used only 20 players in a series was in 2003 when an Andrew Johns led team took a 2–0 lead in the series before taking the foot off the pedal in the decider.

Mal Meninga and Phil Gould are the two most successful Origin coaches and they both had the hallmark of using fewer players in Origin series than their opposition coaches at the time.

So Daley should be encourage to stick and pick, but the key for him will be picking the right players in the first place.

As a Queenslander I hope he picks all the players from last year – but that’s a discussion for another time.