NRL Thursday Night Forecast: Rabbitohs vs Tigers

By Lachlan Bickley / Roar Guru

It’s grim times this week for the Thursday Night Forecast as we preview tonight’s game between the South Sydney Rabbitohs and the Wests Tigers, two teams who enter the game in desperate, desperate straits.

Recent form
Unless you’ve been living on the moon, in a cave, with your fingers in your ears, you are probably aware that things are not going well for either of these teams.

After both starting with exciting and convincing victories in Round 1 and Round 2 both have struggled mightily, with only a solitary win between them in the subsequent six rounds.

The picture only got worse in Round 8 with the Rabbitohs succumbing to the sustained pressure of the Broncos and the Tigers capitulating in disheartening fashion to Canberra.

While the Tigers are on a bigger slide than the Rabbitohs, and clearly had a far more unpleasant experience last week, an argument can be made that the Rabbitohs are in just as deep a hole relative to preseason expectations.

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTY, LIKE EVERY NRL GAME, IS LIVE ON FOXTEL

In my season preview series I slotted all 16 teams in one of five different tiers: teams I was confident would finish in the top four; teams I felt would certainly make the eight (and may push for the top four); teams that would find themselves on the fringe of the eight, in the traditional battle royale between positions six and ten on the ladder.

Finally, two tiers for the stragglers: the first was a tier of teams that definitely would not make the eight, and the last tier were teams that would anchor the table in the bottom four.

I slotted the Tigers into that very bottom tier of teams that, unable to escape the bottom four, while the Rabbitohs I had making the eight.

Against those expectations it can be argued that Souths’ current 11th place on the ladder (but looking worse than the record would suggest) is just as disappointing, if not more disappointing, that the Tigers’ 14th place. Jason Taylor’s side were supposed to be terrible, but for many pundits, the Rabbitohs were expected to be contenders for the finals and they look a long, long way from that at the moment.

Team sheet

Rabbitohs Position Tigers
Greg Inglis Fullback James Tedesco
Aaron Gray Left winger David Nofoaluma
Bryson goodwin Left centre Tim Simona
Kirisome Auva’a Right centre Kevin Naiqama
Dane Neilsen Right winger Jordan Rankin
Adam Reynolds Left half Luke Brooks
Luke Keary Right half Mitchell Moses
Thomas Burgess Prop Ava Seumanufagai
Damian Cook Hooker Robbie Farah
David Tyrell Prop Tim Grant
Chris Grevsmuhl Left second row Chris Lawrence
Kyle Turner Right second row Curtis Sironen
Sam Burgess Lock Sauaso Sue
Cameron McInnes Interchange Josh Aloiai
Jason Clark Interchange Dene Halatau
Nathan Brown Interchange Kyle Lovett
George Burgess Interchange JJ Felise

There are two changes for the Bunnies team that lost in Brisbane, with George Burgess and Kyle Turner joining the team at the expense of the suspended Paul Carter and the injured Hymel Hunt.

The team is also reshuffled, with Kirisome Auav’a returning to the centres after being selected as a bench forward last week, and George Burgess to presumably take a full front-row stint from the bench.

Burgess, who has been poor by his standards for most of the season, missed last week through injury, and needs to improve or will find himself omitted for form reasons in the near future.

The loss of Carter is a blow. While he has been inconsistent this season, including a horror four-error day on Good Friday, he remains one of the Rabbitohs’ strongest forwards carrying the ball. His 88 metre per game is bettered only by Sam and George Burgess among regular forwards. Carter is also second on the team for offloads and fourth at the club for total tackles, despite missing one game.

While still only 22 years old, Hunt has already played at three clubs, starting at the Titans before two fruitless seasons at the Storm. This season however, Hunt found a niche playing at right centre, and was actually the fourth highest metre-gainer for the club. More than that, he has been something of a playmaking threat, with four try assists and three line break assists.

For the Tigers, there are really only two ways a coach can respond to the sort of performance they turned in on Saturday night. The first is to ring the changes and bring in fresh players to do what the established players couldn’t do. The second is hold the line and give the defeated players an opportunity to make amends.

Taylor has opted for the latter, with only two changes. the first was unavoidable, with Tim Grant (who remains the listed starter) ruled out late on Wednesday afternoon. Grant has been solid for the Tigers so his absence through injury is certainly not a coaching decision.

The second change is left centre Nathan Milone being dropped in favour of the returning Tim Simona. Even that change could be passed off as simply the return of an incumbent, although Joey Leilua made Milone’s position in the team essentially untenable even for a coach willing to give his team a chance at redemption.

What to watch for
After looking at the Rabbitohs in depth last week, and with the knowledge that we will be seeing them again in a few weeks’ time, this week we’ll concentrate on the Wests Tigers and what went wrong at Canberra Stadium.

The first answer is, of course: a lot.

The team missed 33 tackles, made ten errors, allowed 12 offloads and 11 line breaks, and conceded a whopping 1853 metres on the ground.

However, the malaise goes deeper than simply making errors and missing tackles.

It is a common refrain from coaches and players that it’s important to get the ‘one percenters’ right. These are the little things that the best players and teams do regularly. As troubling as those headline numbers would have been for Taylor, the failures at the little things may have been equally disappointing.

In essence, taking care of the one percenters is about discipline, but not in the sense of avoiding giving away penalties (although it can be that as well). Rather, it is the personal discipline to do all the things that an elite NRL player and team do, but that aren’t as obvious as making your tackles and carrying the ball aggressively.

For example, it is players coming in as a fourth, or as in the photo below, a fifth tackler when the man was already going down.

In this image we see both James Tedesco and Nathan Milone joining a tackle on Paul Vaughan, when neither was probably necessary. Five men in the tackle make it challenging for the team to get set for the next play, and a sharp dummy half like Josh Hodgson is always going to recognise that as he did on this occasion, sending Elliot Whitehead barrelling over the try line on the next play.

Another great example of a missed one percenter is the following pair of images of Tigers players being left behind while the play the ball is occurring. A man on the ground behind the ball is a man not in the defensive line.

Rugby league is a brutal, collision sport and sometimes it’s hard to get straight up from a tackle. However, both of these plays led directly to tries and if your team is already struggling to compete, it becomes essential that you find a way to get back in the defensive line.

Failing to keep to defensive structure is another area where little things can kill you. Luke Brooks and Mitchell Moses have struggled in defence, but failures to keep to structure – as we’re about to see in the next image – can hurt just as much as missed or ineffective tackles.

This next image demonstrates a great example where a lack of attention to detail in defence in the opposition half can hurt you.

A Tigers player is coming in to attempt to head off a play before it gets started. It can be a spectacular play, but in the context of the game it is not necessarily a smart play. With Josh Papalii outside of Aidan Sezer, the correct play is probably to stay in the defensive line and not gamble that you can get there before Sezer passes the ball.

Our final example of the Tigers failing to respect the little things shows a poor, and arguably undisciplined choice in attack.

In the image below we see Robbie Farah attempting to dive over to score a try on the last tackle. On the face of it, this is a play worth trying every now and then, however the circumstances suggest this was not a smart play.

For starters, it was a slow play the ball, and thus Papalii had more than enough time to get set – and as we can clearly see, he is poised to swallow Farah as soon as he heads up field.

Secondly, if we cast our eyes wider we can see that Jarrod Croker is already heading infield, leaving Kevin Naiqama and David Nofoaluma only a quick pass or two away from a two-on-one against Edrick Lee.

The dummy half dive-over is a high risk, high reward play, and one can argue the Tigers needed to take some chances to turn games their way. However, in this instance there were clear factors suggesting a pass was the smarter option. Farah’s decision is emblematic of a team making poor choices.

On Saturday evening, the Tigers failed again and again on the one percenters, making poor choices and poor efforts when it came to the little things. You will notice that all of these images are from the first half of the game. This was a deliberate choice, given there were many more examples in the second half. But it is the failure to attend to these little things when the game was still a contest that demonstrates just how far this team has to travel if they want to extricate themselves from the hole they are in.

Time and again on Saturday evening they gave the Raiders opportunities to score or make huge gains through lack of personal discipline and poor decision-making. If they do that tonight, it will be the Rabbitohs who punish them this time.

First try scorer: Luke Keary
It is difficult to make a case for any Tigers player after last weekend, yet the Rabbitohs don’t inspire much confidence either. I’ve taken Luke Keary, as I’m expecting that a game like this, with two desperate teams, will be broken open by either an individual effort or some sort of busted play with ricochets and in-goal errors. Both of those scenarios are the sorts of things a busy player like Luke Keary is often in the right place to capitalise on.

Prediction: Rabbitohs
While the Rabbitohs may be in the bigger hole compared to expectations, the Tigers are a long way from being a competitive NRL side. The team is doing both the big things and the little things poorly, and only some occasional James Tedesco brilliance has papered over the cracks this season.

These are hard times at the Tigers, and it’s unlikely they’ll get easier tonight.

Shoe-in of the week
This feels like a perfect opportunity for a certain broadcaster to trot out a couple of well-worn clichés: “No, no, no, not that one”, and “on tilt”.

At some point in this game, whichever team falls behind is going to be on tilt for sure.

You can read the Thursday Night Forecast here every week, or check it out along with more great rugby league analysis and insight on Lachlan’s website Back the Ten. You can also follow Lachlan on Titter @backtheten

The Crowd Says:

2016-04-28T10:23:37+00:00

Lee

Guest


Game marching so dissapointed

2016-04-28T09:23:07+00:00

Red Dog

Guest


Stats don't always tell the true impact a player has on a game . Gallen and Bird both have put NSW in winning positions over the years and then lost the game for the blues through stupidity or poor options , yet the stats see them 1st selected every time . Woods on the other hand is a tap.

2016-04-28T08:11:29+00:00

Cadfael

Roar Guru


If it is as good a game as the Fox Classic this arvo between the two sides (1994) it should be a ripper. Sadly, the way both teams are playing, I can't see it reaching any heights. On paper Souths should have a comfortable win but I think the Tigers will get up.

2016-04-28T07:22:25+00:00

steveng

Roar Rookie


Yeah, AJ is a bit doggy under the high ball (as he has proved last year) but with abit of practice and responsibility at fullback I'm sure that he would adapt and fit in there. Whilst he's away Goodwin is excellent under the high ball and I'm sure that he would be more than capable at fullback (if not be at fullback all the time) if given a chance. But in saying all this, this is what Madge Maguire should be doing and experimenting with his stock of players whilst the side is going so badly, but he's not, and that is a big disappointment. But 'Worlds Biggest' maybe we should be the selectors at the Rabbitohs lol

2016-04-28T06:06:42+00:00

Kaks

Roar Guru


The frustrating thing with Robbie is that he is in fact a very good player who tries TOO hard. Sometime's he needs to sit back and let his halves do their thing. It may be because the clubs halves pairing are so young, it may be that Robbie think's that the team is better off for what he does, either way I dont think its a coincidence that the club did so well at the start of the year which coincided with his absence.

AUTHOR

2016-04-28T05:52:58+00:00

Lachlan Bickley

Roar Guru


Can't disagree with that. Certainly worth a look

2016-04-28T05:51:41+00:00

Worlds Biggest

Guest


Lachie, in fairness GI isn't doing much at Fullback. I don't think AJ is the messiah however he is worth another look IMO.

AUTHOR

2016-04-28T05:49:27+00:00

Lachlan Bickley

Roar Guru


Hmmmm I actually went back and forth on including the Farah dive over attempt because he's such a divisive player. I've written about him before and I am broadly of the view that his presence on that team is a problem but that's not all to do with on the field on matchday where he can still be very helpful. However remains a very talented player and I could easily track back through that game and find a number of occasions where he made very good decisions. I'm not certain he was much of a net positive in that game but I'm very reluctant to label him more harm than good.

AUTHOR

2016-04-28T05:44:53+00:00

Lachlan Bickley

Roar Guru


I'm not sure what the solution is with Greg Inglis but I would caution against too much exuberance with respect to Alex Johnston leaping straight into fullback. To my eyes he struggled when given the role at times last year so there would definitely be an adjustment period. Might be make a great fullback? Sure. But its far from guaranteed

2016-04-28T05:38:12+00:00

Worlds Biggest

Guest


Totally agree with you here mate, we must be in the minority of Souths fans that think GI needs to be in the Centres. AJ when he comes back should go to fullback. Also agree re Luke Keary, he just isn't doing enough to warrant his place and pricey contract. Cody Walker has been Good this season and should be at 6.

2016-04-28T05:18:59+00:00

Kaks

Roar Guru


As can be seen in your great analysis Lachlan, Farah does more harm than good for the Tigers. I dont see them winning this with him on the field.

2016-04-28T05:14:41+00:00

Joe

Roar Rookie


Excellent post. Rabbits it is. Always a danger game though as the past few against the Tigers have proven. With Simona back the backline should be more cohesive but losing Tim Grant means they've lost both starting props in an already physically challenged forward pack. I still think it will be close though because the Tigers should score points just so they can remove the sour taste of last weeks thrashing.

2016-04-28T05:11:22+00:00

steveng

Roar Rookie


For me, I wouldn't have GI at fullback I would have him in the centres and Bryson Goodwin at fullback until Alex Johnston comes back from his injury. Also I would drop Luke Keary and replace him with Cody Walker. What Souths need is some attack in the centres and GI would bring that into the centres, he's not doing much at fullback and this would be his chance to prove and show us what he can and will do for the Kangaroos. For the life of me I cannot understand why Madge Maguire didn't and has left Cody Walker out of the team?

AUTHOR

2016-04-28T04:38:34+00:00

Lachlan Bickley

Roar Guru


Haha you may be right, it might be time to use my actual photo these days. Just need to engage a skilled photoshop technician first.... Losing Grant - who has surprised me this year - really is a late blow for the Tigers. Even with an unsettled, and injured backline the Rabbitohs should do enough Whisper it as well but Greg Inglis actually looked like maybe he was enjoying his rugby league again last week. Perhaps he just needed to hear a parochial Suncorp crowd to get him going

AUTHOR

2016-04-28T04:32:47+00:00

Lachlan Bickley

Roar Guru


Woods is a really interesting case to me. The raw numbers are excellent but I can't shake the feeling that his overall contribution is less than what the numbers would suggest. Still definitely a net positive for them, just not sure to what extent. BUT I've never done a proper breakdown on him or even spent a Tiger's game focussed specifically on him so I wouldn't want to render a final judgment

2016-04-28T04:00:20+00:00

turbodewd

Guest


Lachlan, what do u think of Aaron Woods?

2016-04-28T02:41:06+00:00

Worlds Biggest

Guest


The Tigers have beaten us convincingly the last two years at ANZ Stadium, please not be it 3 ! Even though the Tigers are coming off an almighty walloping, I'm still not overly confident !

2016-04-28T01:59:34+00:00

Wascally Wabbit

Guest


I also enjoy your analysis. However, could you please change your caricature - as every time I read one of your articles, I hear the voice of Waylon Smithers and it's becoming a bit un-nerving.? On the game - surely with both Aaron Woods and Tim Grant out and our forwards finally showing a bit of mongrel last week, we can get on top of their pack. Our backline still looks unsettled though. Hopefully when Alex Johnston returns, Maguire will find a combination he's happy with and stick with it.

AUTHOR

2016-04-28T01:34:38+00:00

Lachlan Bickley

Roar Guru


Croker has long been one of my favourite players but his defence has always been a problem which is why the idea of him in Origin is laughable/terrifying. In partial defence of him I would note that when paired with a decent defender inside (Campo before the injuries rather than Williams or Cornish) and a decent defender outside (Monaghan or for the most part Edrick rather than the long list of goobers they tried out there over the last 7 years) he has been fine. Honestly this year as bad as his defence has been at times I'm far more concerned by the team's insistence on giving him short side runs out of the Raiders defensive end half a dozen times a game. It is a truly terrible option when he usually has either Edrick lee or Jack Wighton in the vicinity if not Leilua or Rapana who both have no hesitation crossing the field to take a carry. Croker is the smallest man in the backline - let the big boys take the hit ups for goodness sake

2016-04-28T01:21:43+00:00

turbodewd

Guest


Also, the league community is small. People don't like to criticise individuals. I for one am calling out Jarrod Croker for ordinary defense. I think he is a Raiders backline weakness, should be on the wing in D.

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