We often hear that having a great forward who hits the scoreboard multiple times a week is the key to success in the AFL, however is this statement true?
I looked back over every premiership team since 1990 to see how often the top goal kickers in the league led their team to success.
At a quick glance it seems that having a great scorer definitely does give a team a chance at tasting the ultimate success. In all, 17 of the last 26 premiers featured a forward that finished the year in the top five for goals scored.
When expanding the parameter to the top ten in goals scored the statistic becomes 21 of the last 26 premiers, while every single premiership team except for Collingwood in 2010 and West Coast in 1994 had at least one forward finish in the top 15.
Alan Didak’s 41 goals in 2010 was the least from a premiership team’s primary goal kicker in recent memory, however Travis Cloke kicked 38 and finished 22nd while Chris Dawes also contributed 30.
West Coast’s 1994 season is quite similar, as Peter Sumich kicked 49 goals and finished 16th in goal kicking, just ahead of teammate Brett Heady who kicked 44 and Chris Lewis who kicked 38.
The leading goal kicker for the past 26 premiers has also very rarely been a small forward.
Peter Daicos, Darren Jarman, Alan Didak and Lewis Jetta are the only non key-position players to be the primary goal scorer in a premiership team in the last 26 years.
The other 22 are prototypical lead-up forwards such as Jason Dunstall, Wayne Carey and Matthew Lloyd.
It’s also interesting to note the average goals scored by a premiership team’s leading goal kicker during this period is just slightly under 71.
While the average has no doubt been boosted slightly by incredible 100-goal seasons from Matthew Lloyd and Lance Franklin, every leader kicked at least 45 goals except for Didak.
In fact, 76 per cent kicked at least 55 goals while 65 per cent kicked at least 65 goals.
Depending on how many finals were played and if the player was injured, this means that generally for a team to win a premiership they need a player averaging around 2 goals per game.
In 2015 only four teams in the league (Brisbane, Carlton, Collingwood and Essendon) didn’t have a player up around this mark.
Additionally, of the ten teams that had a player kick 45 goals or more last year, six of them were teams that made the top eight. Fremantle’s Michael Walters and North Melbourne’s Jarrad Waite just missed out, finishing on 44 and 42 goals respectively.
It’s hard to state whether teams that taste the ultimate success are successful because of their top forwards or whether being a great team means that somebody will just inevitably kick 45 goals.
However, seeing these stats it’s hard to argue with the importance that clubs place on trying to secure a dominant forward for their future.
Samantha
Roar Rookie
High 40s to low 50s is a far cry from a dominate forward, I think that is stretching the definition quite a bit.
Michael Huston
Guest
Tony Lockett would fit just fine. He'd only get about 10 touches a game because he wouldn't move out of the forward line but all 10 of those touches would result in goals. I maintain to this day I have never seen a player with such brute strength and force as Plugger. You could put Rance, Lake and Hooker on him 3 onto 1 and he'd out-mark them. He's like the one-man machine that was just born to dominate any opponent from any era.
Simoc
Guest
It would be interesting to see how the likes of Tony Modra, Tony Lockett and Jason Dunstall would fit into the game plans of today.
Brandon Marlow
Roar Pro
They weren't renowned, but they still had Steve Johnson kick 49 in 2007, 46 from Cam Mooney in 2009 and 52 from Podsiadly. Not to mention in all three years there was another goalkicker not far behind the club's leading goal kicker.
Josh
Expert
To paraphrase that old saying about needing to be crazy to work here... No, you don't HAVE to have one, but it sure helps.
Mister Football
Roar Guru
I can count on one hand the good big men we've had at our club over the past 40 years - so with seven consecutive prelim losses in that time, in relation to my club, I can say with no risk of contradiction: don't worry about having just one big man, we will not win a premiership until we have one good one at either end, and an extra one for good measure who can float between the two ends. You only had to watch Stringer trying to take school yard speccies last Friday night, and the likes of Dale Morris worrying about three tall forwards who were all six inches taller than him (and who can forget Terry Wallace putting Rohan Smith at centre-half back in the 1998 prelim).
Samantha
Roar Rookie
I would say none of the Geelong teams of 2007, 9 or 11 were renowned for their forward lines, let alone full forwards.
Stewie
Guest
Lewis Jetta was our leading goalkicker in 2012, think he only had around 42 from memory? Other than Sam Reid, we didn't really have a key forward target as such. Still won the flag :P
TomC
Roar Guru
There's some chicken-and-egg about this argument. Playing at the pointy end of a particularly good team makes you a better full-forward. Without going into detail, Quentin Lynch might have got close to the top 5 goalkickers in 2006 when the Eagles won the flag, but I think only had one other season where he topped ~40 goals.
Gecko
Guest
Roughead has shown that nowadays the tall forward needs to chase and get his knees dirty as well as mark and goal. Cloke, with all his inaccuracy, would still be in the team if he could chase and get his knees dirty.
paul
Guest
It helps if someone in the team is able to mark and goal. It doesn't help if your $900k man is playing in the state league.