Hello Roarers, and welcome to another edition of The Roar’s AFL expert tips. We’ve got a number of big match-ups this week between teams flying, falling, and everywhere in between.
Very intriguing right off the bat will be the battles between top eight sides: Geelong vs West Coast, and Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide.
These are two matches that, in an even pack in the top half of the ladder, could have a big impact on the finishing order of finals sides come the end of the season.
Geelong seem the logical choice to continue their recent good form against the Eagles, especially given their significant home-ground advantage and the Eagles’ poor form on the road.
The Bulldogs and the Crows looks like the game of the round, and both these teams will be very keen to get another win on the board after less than ideal performances last week – the Bulldogs falling short against North Melbourne, and the Crows sputtering as they took their time to put away struggling Fremantle.
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My tip is that the Crows are probably a bit ahead of the Bulldogs at the moment, but the Bulldogs do have the home ground advantage and a bit of extra motivation after a loss last week.
The most difficult match of the week to tip I think is the one between Gold Coast and Melbourne. These are two teams who have varied between hot and cold a lot this season, and after disappointing losses for both in Round 6, will be really setting themselves to come out and get a win here.
So which one will pull it off? On paper I think Melbourne are the better side, but not by any significant margin, and that is probably offset by Gold Coast holding the home ground advantage.
Look, I’m going to tip Melbourne, but I do so with no confidence at all. It will be a game that tells us a lot about where these sides are at, and the winner will finish 4-3 and be considering its finals chances.
Collingwood and Carlton will meet at the MCG on Saturday. It’s funny, we’ve had Collingwood vs Essendon and Carlton vs Essendon in the weeks prior, so this has almost been a little tri-series between three of the oldest and proudest teams in the comp, and it’s mostly been absolute garbage to watch.
Well, the Pies and the Blues have both claimed wins over the Dons so far but which of them gets a win here? Collingwood look to be a bit better on paper, though neither team is setting the world on fire.
St Kilda and North Melbourne will play an interesting match on Sunday, the 6-0 Roos will no doubt go in as favourites but after passing a big test against the Bulldogs last week the challenge will be for them to back that up and keep on rolling. I’ll back my boys in of course but you’d be foolish to write off the Saints in any game this year.
The last game of the week will be played between Port Adelaide and Brisbane – the Lions put in a strong showing last week but didn’t get the reward, going down to the Swans by 3 points, while Port improved to 3-3 with a win over Richmond. I think Port will get the job done here just because I doubt Brisbane can string two strong performances together, especially given they’ll be on the road this week.
GWS over Fremantle, Sydney over Essendon and Hawthorn over Richmond look like the most certain of the tips this week. Some might point out the Tigers’ solid recent record over Hawthorn, or the Hawks average form of late, but I say a Richmond side without Alex Rance of Trent Cotchin is bordering on toothless, and the Hawks always come back strong after a loss. In fact, a brown and gold win on Friday night is my Lock of the Week.
Michael di Fabrizio
There’s a few interesting games this week, so let’s look at the two that pair up sides from the current (and most would say eventual) top eight.
On West Coast’s away form this season, Geelong should beat the Eagles at Simonds Stadium. The Cats are starting to compile a pretty impressive resume, one that now includes the biggest win of the season, and are firing in all areas of the ground.
The Western Bulldogs host Adelaide later on Saturday and that one is a bit harder to gauge. The Dogs might finally be starting to feel the pinch from their sizeable list of outs. The Crows have done alright at Etihad Stadium this season.
That said, it’s hard to see the Dogs dropping two in a row at the venue. Some more thoughtful entries inside 50 this week should correct some of their struggles last week against North Melbourne.
Among the others, I’ll have my eye on Gold Coast and Melbourne. On what we’ve seen of the two teams this season, Melbourne are the better bet to bounce back from a disappointing loss.
BJ Conkey
It’s not often you back a team after they lose by 120 points, but the way Gary Ablett talked this week about the embarrassment of last week’s loss, and criticising his own form, gives me some confidence that the Suns will have a big turnaround in fortunes.
This is a game Melbourne will feel like they should win, but then again they would have felt like that against St Kilda.
In a scrappy 1 vs 2 contest, the Bulldogs couldn’t rise to the occasion on the big stage last week against North Melbourne.
It doesn’t get any easier against the Crows who are the highest scoring side in the competition. I’m expecting another elimination-style final like 2015 with a similar result at the end.
| Round 5 | BJ Conkey | Michael | Josh | The Crowd |
| RIC v HAW | HAW | HAW | HAW | HAW |
| COL v CAR | COL | COL | COL | COL |
| GEE v WCE | GEE | GEE | GEE | GEE |
| SYD v ESS | SYD | SYD | SYD | SYD |
| GCS v MEL | GCS | MEL | MEL | GCS |
| WB v ADL | ADL | WB | ADL | ADL |
| FRE v GWS | GWS | GWS | GWS | GWS |
| STK v NTM | NTM | NTM | NTM | NTM |
| PA v BL | PA | PA | PA | PA |
| Last round | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Total | 39 | 36 | 37 | 38 |
jax
Guest
Looking at the stats of these top 8 sides away games against other top 8 sides a little closer. WC and Adelaide have each played 29% of the games that top 8 sides have had to play against another top 8 side on an interstate deck, or 58% combined. After this weekends round they will each be at 30%, or 60% combined. Seeing that home ground advantages are so critical to win/loss ratios I have four questions. 1. Why is 60% of the load being carried by just two teams who just so happen to be the premier clubs in the two 'competing' states that have the strongest football pedigree, and who have won 5 flags between them? Don't try to tell me that the AFL isn't aware of this. 2. Why is the GF played at the same ground every year when the advantage it gives to a Victorian club is so obvious? Don't try to tell me that the MCG GF 2035 arrangement can't be changed - they tried to tell me for years that the one final per week in Melbourne deal couldn't be changed either, but it was. 3. Why doesn't the Victorian media report on all of this, educate the fans and why don't they rant on about the obvious biases in this competiton and the advantages that Victorian clubs have over their interstate rivals like they do over so many other trivial matters? 4. Why do the fans sit back, give the AFL (and Fox) their hard earned money and simply accept this? The game is marketed as a national competition, but it isn't. It's spin and subterfuge. It's still a VFL competition that is run by Victorians, for Victorians. It's a disgrace any way that you look at it and most fans aren't intelligent (or don't care) enough to see it for what it is, let alone doing anything to change the status-quo. Now that you know there are no excuses.
jax
Guest
I forgot to mention that WC were in front halfway through the 3rd quarter against Sydney before falling away. As I said, they haven't strung four quarters together yet but when they do they are going to be very difficult to beat. Also, the dimensions of Subi and Skilled are very similar. Domain - 175 X 122 Skilled - 170 X 115 The sun will be shining and the temp will be 25c which is WC weather. Predicting games on win/losses and averages doesn't tell the full story. Dont be suprised if WC becomes the first AFL team this season to beat a top 8 side away from home. It's rare as hens teeth for any team to do it in this competition but it's not impossible. Good luck, it should be a cracking game.
jax
Guest
You threw out averages and they can be misleading eg a batsman has two innings and gets a 100no in one and a duck in the other - his average is still 100. So, WC had a shocker against the Hawks which lowers their average plus they've had a tougher fixture. The Cats lowest was against GWS which is 14 more than WC's worst. WC matched the Swans away. I was responding to this stat you threw out... WCE is averaging 56.8 I50’s a game, ranked 5th GFC is averaging 58.0 I50’s a game, ranked 2nd That's only 1.2 inside 50 average differential. I hope this is clearer for you now.
Don Freo
Guest
You might need a spare of shoes.
jax
Guest
Of the seven matches this year where a team currently in the eight travelled to play another team currently in the eight, the home team has won every game. “Tell me a side that’s actually beaten a top eight side interstate this year,” Simpson said. “It’s bloody hard to win away. But we do it every second week. We have a crack at it." Some Melb clubs travel a handful times a year yet this is what WC faces every fortnight which is why it's focused on seeing that there is a new opportunity to have a crack every few weeks. Did the Vic media share these home truths with the footy public or did they just throw out another headline for people to jump on? This is why it's so much harder for an interstate club to win a GF against a Melb club and why interstate flags are worth at least two Victorian flags. That's why the Lions 3-peat is far and away the most impressive AFL flag record of the modern era. The Hawks would need to a 5-peat to match what the Lions achieved. TOP EIGHT TEAMS v OTHER TOP EIGHT TEAMS INTERSTATE IN 2016 Rnd 1 North Melbourne b Adelaide by 10 points (Etihad Stadium) Rnd 2 GWS b Geelong by 13 points (Manuka Oval) Hawthorn b West Coast by 46 points (MCG) Rnd 4 Adelaide b Sydney by 10 points (Adelaide Oval) Rnd 5 Sydney b West Coast by 39 points (SCG) Hawthorn b Adelaide by 3 points (MCG) Rnd 6 GWS b Hawthorn by 75 points (Spotless) WC and Adelaide are the only clubs to have played another top 8 team twice away from home and this weekend it will be the third time for both of them while some top 8 sides haven't had to deal with it once. Yeah, it's a really fair fixture and competition. https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/sport/afl/a/31519535/interstate-wins-not-just-an-eagles-problem/
Rich_daddy
Roar Guru
GWS are my shoe in of the week....
Swift foetus
Guest
I Got a feeling you're right about this one mate
Samantha
Roar Rookie
Brinnx
Guest
Once again this will be like car crash TV, skill error's, turnovers galore, manic effort. Cant' wait
Tricky
Guest
You know what is interesting, Pies have used more list than any other team! they don't even know each other let alone how each other plays. OK that's stretching it a bit but it looks like there out of sorts for most of the quarters this year and in small patches they've looked good even take qtr 2 & 3 against wc on their home deck - looked dare I say efficient It's an interesting animal but by and large they look in real trouble, injuries to key players, playing injured (skipper) players out of form etc. I reckon carlton can smell blood and are a real chance. I reckon the natives will be out for some footy department axing if we lose to the blues this week. We've only seen glimpses of what that list should be playin footy like - ala last week but they just can't "gel" and "click"
Josh
Expert
Anyone wanna change their tip now that Jesse White is in for Collingwood?
jax
Guest
Yep, Freo has been a test to a few teams for significant periods within games this year eg WC, North and the Crows. In your averages you should factor in that WC had 34 inside 50's against the Hawks while the Cats had 48 against GWS. WC has faced tougher opposition on away decks. You need to look a little deeper into your stats because WC has stronger underlying metrics. That doesn't mean that they will win of course but the stats suggest that they can quite easily win if they play 4 quarter footy and kick straight.
TomC
Roar Guru
Oh, Suns. When in doubt, tip the home team, as you said.
Forest Gimp
Guest
If that's the case Don, then they shall henceforth be known as the Freo 69ers.
Michael Huston
Guest
Could do, but won't. A) There's a chance it could rain, which would spoil any chance of a key forward having a field day, let alone the entire team's ability to boot a big score. B) Too many other players in the Swans forward line look dangerous, as I'm tipping Papley and Hewett to also have good games. C) I think he's been blessed to have a psychological advantage over Essendon's defenders like Hooker and co. It's a different lot of defenders with Hartley etc. so he might not be as dominant as expected.
Josh
Expert
Who are you going to tip of the Suns and the Demons Tom? I agree that the Lions are a serious chance on Sunday and if the game were in Queensland I'd probably tip them.
Josh
Expert
Sydney over Essendon is probably a bigger lock but there's no fun in just tipping against Essendon every week.
Josh
Expert
Definitely a danger game, but based on the maturity the side has shown so far this year I think it'll be a win. Will be interesting to see what the Saints do to try and combat our three talls.
Samantha
Roar Rookie
Freo is a test? At least the teams the Cats played have managed to win a game. WCE hasn't won a game in Geelong in over a decade. Won't change this weekend either. WCE is averaging 56.8 I50's a game, ranked 5th GFC is averaging 58.0 I50's a game, ranked 2nd
Don Freo
Guest
Unless Freo, who has been playing at 50% and kicking at 15% finally play at 70 % or over. Freo at 70% is enough to win a GF.