The West Coast Eagles are considered to be one of the best teams in the AFL.
They made the grand final last season, taking advantage of an intimidating home ground advantage, and they entered this season on the second line of premiership favouritism behind the indomitable Hawthorn.
They have won 14 of their last 15 home games, but just 11 of 25 away games under coach Adam Simpson. This mediocre away record includes winning just one of eight games since the beginning of 2015 against teams who were inside the top eight. That win was against Richmond in Round 12 last season; there have been losses to Adelaide, Sydney, Geelong, Hawthorn, North Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs.
This season they have played three games away and lost them all by an average of 43 points. In those games, the Eagles have conceded more than 60 inside 50s on each occasion. Compare that to their home record, where they have won all four games by an average of 56 points per game, and conceded just 35.5 inside 50s.
Clearances are regarded to be a good indicator of how a team performs, and with the Eagles it shows a distinct drop-off away from home. They are +28 in clearance differential in their home games but -31 in their away games.
Rewind to last season and the Eagles actually won clearances more often than not away from home against top eight sides. Conversely, they were -75 in uncontested possessions differential, so they were losing these games in a different manner.
When playing away in 2015, they lost the disposal efficiency by an average of 2 per cent per game despite playing bottom eight teams Melbourne, St Kilda, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide, Collingwood and Brisbane, and are losing this statistic by an average of 7 per cent per game this season on the road. The quality of opposition has been far greater early in 2016, but the numbers prove this side is not efficient away from home.
The Eagles average 83.8 points a game in 14 games away since the start of 2015, but just 62.5 points against the top eight teams away during that same time period. At the same time, they have averaged 106.7 points against top eight teams at Domain Stadium and almost 117 against all teams at home.
While it seems a little unfair to place heat on the forward line when the entire team struggles, the breakdown of how they perform at home and away cannot be ignored.
Josh Kennedy has kicked four goals or more in eight of 17 home games since the beginning of 2015 but has kicked more than two goals in just six of 14 away games during that same time. Mark LeCras and Josh Hill perform even more poorly when they hop on a plane; LeCras has kicked multiple goals in 12 of 17 home games but just three of 14 away games since the start of 2015, while Hill has done likewise in eight of 17 home games but just three of 14 away games.
Jack Darling is the exception to the rule, having kicked multiple goals in eight of 12 home games but also in five of nine away games, including four hauls of three or more away from Domain Stadium.
Perhaps the most damning statistic of all, and one that raises as strong an argument as any against them being anything but flat-track bullies, is their inability to stop good sides getting momentum when they play away from the comforts of Domain Stadium.
In their losses against top eight sides away from home over the last two seasons, the Eagles have allowed their opponents to kick at least four unanswered goals in every game. This season, they have allowed ‘runs’ of five goals against Hawthorn and six goals against both Sydney and Geelong, while last season they allowed Fremantle to kick 11 straight and Adelaide and Hawthorn to kick nine goals without reply.
In the latter match against the Hawks, those nine goals came after Luke Shuey kicked the first goal of the grand final. A premiership contender would be better at halting momentum, especially one with so much experience on its list.
The Eagles arguably have only one member of their best 22 (Dom Sheed) unavailable due to injury, and from the side against Geelong on the weekend there were 15 players with more than 100 games experience. Another three had between 70-100 games.
Of that team, 18 players were aged between 23-28 years of age, making this list seemingly primed for success both from an age and experience profile. While the Eagles should be ready for premiership success, they instead seem set for a mid-table finish, and would have no confidence of winning an away final. Actually, they would presumably have confidence but that would be based on falsities.
West Coast have not lost a game to a bottom-eight side since Round 10, 2014. That they have won enough games since then to be considered a good team cannot be argued, but the quality of their wins and the fact they habitually beat bad sides is there for all to see.
Whether you call them front-runners, downhill skiers or flat-track bullies, one thing cannot be debated: on exposed form, West Coast are a team which will not win a flag as currently put together, as the grand final is not played at Domain Stadium.
Rocko
Roar Guru
Fair point - Jetta was very underwhelming last year in Sydney and there was a lot of suprise that Sinclair was the direct swap. Sinclair you can see if finding his feet - if he had kicked straight he should have had 4.1 on Sat night rather then 1.4 - but he is a good second ruck. Hope Jetta can rediscover his form as watching him live is amazing.
Steven Paice
Roar Guru
Appreciate the feedback jax and thanks for reading. I take on board the point on some of the stats perhaps needing more context as well
Steven Paice
Roar Guru
No winner as yet for mine Martin, its too early in the piece to tell. Having said that, the Swans would be very happy with what Sinclair has done while Jetta has been underwhelming for the Eagles and doesn't look interested, or like he is doing what he will need to do to have an impact.
Don Freo
Guest
We'll take McKenzie at Freo if you don't want him.
rob
Guest
Not a massive fan of the flat track bullies tag, you can only play and beat the opposition your up against. Id say the biggest problem the eagles need to address isnt that they lost to Hawthorn in Melbourne, Sydney in Sydney or Geelong in Geelong... its the manner in which they have lost.
Don Freo
Guest
It's your idea Garlee. Tell us what you think. What is the trash talk you refer to? I see no issue. This club is tracking well. Some great stuff unfolding.
justinr
Guest
I think the Eagles are paying the price of wasting the 2013 & 2014 seasons. Their only hope to win a flag is two home finals and then meet a team having a bad day in the GF. Seems unlikely this year on exposed form.
Nolzie
Roar Rookie
Martin, as an Eagles supporter I think just comparing the two players the Swans have won at this stage. The difference in the trade and I think that it really needs to be considered when looking at the trade is that even if Sinclair mirrored last years form (which he hasn't so far) chances are he would still be playing third fiddle behind Lycett. Jetta if playing like he did last year would still more than likely be getting a gig at the Swans. So at the end of the day I believe both teams won in that they lost what they would have considered to be acceptable losses for what they gained. When comparing how each player is going you need to access what value they would have had to their old teams as well.
Chancho
Roar Rookie
Hey??? I wouldn't say they have top 3 form at all by any measure... no one who lets the Lion's kick 100+ on you is a top 3 in my book; smoking Richmond and Collingwood at Domain is hardly a pointer either; and only winning by 5-6 goals in the Darby against this Freo side isn't much chop either. They are not a top 3 side on current form, Don. In saying that, I'm not down on the Eagles at all, I think they are having a slow start and will stay in the 8.... but the true litmus test will be in a few weeks when they host the Dogs, then travel to Adelaide to play the Crows.
Chancho
Roar Rookie
Why is there such a huge differential between H&A clearences? Surely ground dimentions shouldn't impact to that extent? It's hard to say where the missfire for them is this year, outside the H&A/top 8 results, a quick look at the stats and they don't seem too be far off the pace... - one thing is they don't get enough ball and then they probably turn it over a bit too often for as little ball as they get, but then thses stats aren't too disimilar to North? - there are only 3 players averaging 20+ disposals per game, the other higher ranked teams have a lot more - How are they performing defensively? I thought it waqs strange that they let Brissy kick +100 on them in the opening round. Ultimately I think they'll finish in the 8 but not in the top 4
Rocko
Roar Guru
Interesting read - I often have thought Josh Kennedy defines this problem - seems to kick a swag at Subi and goes missing in Melbourne/on the road. As a Sydney supporter be interested in your thoughts on the Jetta / Sinclair trade - any winners yet?
Chancho
Roar Rookie
Sam, I think WCE finishing out of the top 8 is probably a bit too much of a stretch... I see them finishing outside the top 4. I personally think the current top 8 sides will remain in the top 8 and the sides currently 9-13 will be snatching points off each other and then dropping to the better sides. As an aside - your Cats are a terifying prospect at the moment. I was wondering if the GWS loss indicated some bigger problem, or was an aberration, I'm certainly thinking it's the latter now. This Friday's game looks to be a cracker.
garlee10
Guest
I really want to know what don Freo has to say about the Freo chokers and the absolute thrash talk, the absolute garbage that Ross Lyon is sprouting.
jax
Guest
You jmade a strong statement about Priddos and followed it up by stating that you haven't watched a lot of WC, smh. He's been ordinary since retiring from injury a few weeks ago I'll give you that much but he's a very worthy winner.
Lroy
Guest
@ Dean, its a question I have been asking for ten years now. ;-) There seems to be this belief over in Perth that if a guy is a gun in the WAFL.. that automatically means he is a gun in the AFL. Woo Hoo, dont stop believin right?? ;-)
jax
Guest
A couple of generalisations there Ryan. Did you miss the 3rd quarter? Narrowing the margin from 51 to 19 points is an example of building momentum when under pressure I would thought? WC are playing great footy within all games at times this year but they aren't sustaining it for four quarters. What concerns me is the disparity between their best and worst within the same game. Is the glass half-empty of half-full? Should we throw the baby out with the bathwater? Let's all jump on the bandwagon without checking the wheels and carriage shall we? The destination is all that matters.
jax
Guest
"From my point of view, teams that consider themselves contenders should not only be able to be competitive at home and away, but also (and perhaps more importantly) have the ability to wrest momentum away when things are going against them" Do you mean like in the 3rd quarter against the Cats? I know what you're trying to say but IMO people overreact too often.
spruiker
Guest
Cmon dean priddis is a gun and worthy Brownlow winner -- Comment from The Roar's iPhone app.
jax
Guest
Spot on Tom and it's great to read such an accurate and intelligent comment. Too many people throw stats around and avoid comparisons. Steven - if you can't supply comparisons then your point doesn't have context and therefore it lacks veracity. I have a question for you - how many interstate teams have travelled and beaten the Hawks, Swans and Cats on their home decks in the last few years? You can pick the period, anything from 1-10 years. You aren't going to find many. I've never heard that definition of FTB's before. The ones that I have heard in the past were different. I'm not levelling this specifically at you but could it be a case of some people making it up as they go along so as to fit their narrative? "During the time that the Eagles have been considered a ‘top team’, they have lost almost every game away from home when they are up against a fellow decent team. Not only have they lost those games" "there are only seven other top 8 teams at any one time, and every time the Eagles play one of them away from the comforts of home you are almost certain to be able to predict the result. " Did you not read Tom's reply? He said.... "West Coast tend to beat teams that they are better than, and lose to teams that are better than them. They tend to do better at home than interstate. These things apply to everyone." Everyone is everyone. As Tom correctly pointed out ALL top teams struggle to beat other top 8 teams away from home but you failed to address it in your reply and you instead replied by repeating it back to him? I'm not having a go mate but I would like to see more context. Unfortunately context is very hard to find even from professional journalists and commentators. Things aren't as bad at WC as they seem but they do have quite a lot to work on. Teams are never as good or as bad as we think they are.
gameofmarks
Roar Guru
If it were up to me this is my starting 22: Hurn, Barrass, Butler Sheppard, McGovern, Wellingham Schofield, Yoe, Gaff Masten, Darling, Lecras Cripps, Kennedy, Lamb Ruck - Natinui, Priddis, Shuey Int - Lycette, Huchings, Duggan, Sheed I tossed up between Butler and Nelson in the back pocket. Schofield started off at the Eagles on the wing and I reckon he still has the pace to play this position well plus he could drop back and play +1 in defense when the other side has momentum in their favour, with Masten filling his positon on the wing when he does.