We are seven rounds into the AFL season and not only does the top eight seem set, but all eight of those teams have claims on being premiership contenders.
So who has claims on being the premiership favourite? Is North’s 7-0 record a reflection of how well they are really going?
Is Sydney feasting on an easy draw, or have they rebuilt on the fly? Can Paddy Danger lead Geelong back to familiar territory? Or are we still headed towards a historic four-peat for the Hawks? Let’s take a look.
North Melbourne (7-0)
The Roos haven’t put a foot wrong in being unbeaten and are not dominating any statistical category other than the scoreboard, which renders all other categories meaningless.
They have played five teams outside the top eight and their road games have been against Brisbane and Gold Coast, neither of which was particularly impressive. Their versatility in attack with Jarrad Waite, Drew Petrie and Ben Brown has been a real strength but the lack of a competent small forward may hurt them when the fixture gets harder and the long-term loss of Shaun Higgins is a huge blow.
From Rounds 10-14 they play Sydney (away), Geelong, Hawthorn and Adelaide (away). Having started so well, they allow themselves some latitude so splitting those games will put them well on the road to securing a top four spot.
However they are in a strange spot in some ways; having made the preliminary final the last two years from outside the top four in the past two seasons they don’t necessary need the double-chance.
In any case, this team looks undoubtedly better but is still lacking the midfield star power to win the flag.
Geelong (6-1)
The Cats were expected to improve this season, as much on the back of an easy fixture as their improved playing list. The Round 2 loss to the Giants asked questions, but they have since answered with a five-game winning streak.
They remain dominant at the Cattery, and have taken care of business in their other games. Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood provide the league’s best midfield one-two punch, and with games against the Crows, Giants, Roos and Bulldogs to follow before their mid-season bye we will find plenty out about where this team should finish as they have thrived from a soft draw so far.
The development of Steven Motlop and return of Daniel Menzel give this side cream on its cake and the defence is holding opponents to fewer points than any team other than the Bulldogs.
With management and resting likely to be the order of the day, and confidence of being able to beat the other contenders, this side looks primed for a legitimate assault on the flag if it avoids major injuries.
Sydney (6-1)
Do we ever give Sydney the credit they deserve? They have comfortably beaten fellow top eight contenders the Giants and Eagles and were on the losing side of an epic clash with Adelaide in Round 4, having otherwise not set a foot wrong.
Sure, they have feasted on some poor sides but they are kicking goals (third in the league in scoring) and stopping the other team from doing so (third in least scoring conceded). They are monopolising the football, ranking second in contested possession differential and fourth in uncontested possession differential and are strong at clearances ranking fifth in clearance differential.
Their defence remains a massive question mark, as Adelaide proved when they separated the defenders and allowed skill to take over. Perhaps the biggest advantage they have is #23. Love him or hate him, no one can do what Lance Franklin does and he is locked in.
As long as he plays, the Swans are in the flag conversation and games against Hawthorn, North Melbourne and Greater Western Sydney in the next month will provide more evidence one way or the other as to their legitimacy.
Western Bulldogs (5-2)
The Dogs have fought injuries to their three best running defenders in Jason Johannisen, Matt Suckling and skipper Bob Murphy but remain in the top four due to their ability to control the ball.
They easily lead the league in total possession differential, contested possession differential, uncontested possession differential and clearance differential. The only thing stopping them from being unbeaten is lack of goal kicking consistency.
Due to a fixturing quirk they are yet to play away from the comforts of Etihad which is an interesting discussion point. Whether they can win big games at venues that hold finals at is yet to be proven.
By dominating the ball as much as they do and going inside 50 more than 19 times more than their opposition they give themselves every chance of success if they can increase their scoring consistency. Relying on the likes of Tom Boyd to deliver the goods is dangerous practice so Tory Dickson and Jake Stringer become critical success factors. The Dogs should be good enough to finish in the top four and make a legitimate assault on the flag.
Greater Western Sydney (5-2)
The footy world has been waiting for the expansion teams to make finals. The Suns are looming as competition deadweight but their southern counterparts are primed for success. The talent was never in doubt, and the mix of veterans and youth seems just right.
Wins at home over Geelong and Hawthorn have highlighted a blistering start by a side that ranks top three in both uncontested and contested possession differential. They have a top four attack and a top four defence and also rank second in clearance differential.
Apart from long-term injuries to Ryan Griffen and Devon Smith, this is a healthy list and there is argument for ruckman Shane Mumford being the most valuable player in the AFL.
Following what should be any easy win against the Suns this weekend, they face the Bulldogs, Adelaide (away), Geelong (away) and Sydney – if they can split those games and be 8-4 after 12 games a spot in the top four will be theirs to lose as they only face two top eight teams in last ten rounds.
Hawthorn (5-2)
The footy world seems intent on finding reasons why Hawthorn won’t win the premiership. They lack leg speed. They lack hunger for contested footy, and those two factors plus their game style averse to footy as it is played in 2016.
Let’s be real though, they remain the prohibitive favourites. They will get Luke Hodge and Jarrad Roughead back from injury around mid-season and will manage the likes of Sam Mitchell.
They play just one top eight opponent before their bye, won three consecutive elimination games last season and have won nine of their last ten finals. Hunger remains a question, which is human nature but for all the statistics you can provide the fact remains they win when they need to win. The road to the flag still goes though the Hawks.
West Coast (4-3)
The Eagles have won one of their last nine away games against fellow finalists, but have not lost to a non-finals side since mid-2014. They decimate most opponents at home, dominating every statistical category and force feeding arguably the most talented forward line in the AFL.
They play the Western Bulldogs and Adelaide away in the next six weeks but their remaining road games are against lower ranked teams. They will win at home, that’s a given and have a clean bill of health as far as their list is concerned.
They have played the hardest three away games in league but must leaned from their failings and address their problems once they hop on a plane. They must finish top four and win through to a home preliminary final to have a chance of going one better than last season, but that seems a tall mountain to climb with the sides currently in front of them.
Adelaide (4-3)
The league’s most difficult draw gets no better for ‘the pride of South Australia’. They play Geelong, West Coast (away), North Melbourne and the GWS in next six weeks – that is pure brutality.
Their attacking prowess and efficiency with the ball keeps them in every game. They rank in the bottom half of possessions per game, possession differential and inside 50 differentials yet they are the best forward line in the league having not kicked less than 97 points in a game.
Captain Taylor Walker is a gun but he needs to lift, and they need Rory Laird back as they need all hands on deck to win big games. No side will deserve a top four side more than the Crows if they rise up the ladder, but it seems a tough road.
Of the others, Melbourne look primed for success in 2018 but are not finals ready just yet, Port Adelaide are far too flaky to win against the best sides on a consistent basis, and the rest of the teams are either building (Carlton, St Kilda), treading water (Brisbane, Essendon), in strife (Richmond, Gold Coast) or rebuilding (Collingwood, Fremantle).
So what should the 2016 premiership market look like then?
Hawthorn – $5.00
Sydney, Geelong – $6.00
North Melbourne, Bulldogs – $11.00
West Coast – $13.00
Greater Western Sydney – $17.00
Adelaide – $21.00
Michael Huston
Guest
I hope that's the case Pope. I'm an avid Swan through and through, and there's practically nothing to complain about right now. But I'm also a realist. We're relying on kids - guys who have under 50 games, some under 20 - to propel us to a top four in a season that's so competitive. How will they handle the pressure? Will they be able to sustain their form throughout all 23 rounds? Is our game-plan rounded enough to beat the best? How will players coming in (Reid, Rohan) effect our form? They're all questions that haven't been answered yet. Until they're answered, I can only go with logic, and surely the Swans can't pull it off. It would be a remarkable feat for John Longmire. However, given how much our side is transitioning this year, and how few (including myself) had us in the bottom of the eight, I'd be stoked if we finished fifth or sixth, which seems most likely. The thing to remember is this: Geelong look blistering and have a soft draw, North have a game advantage which is crucial in an even top six, Hawthorn will only get better and are a bogey-side for us, and we still have to face North, Geelong, Hawthorn and GWS away. It's a tough run so the jury's still out for me.
Sami
Roar Rookie
Maybe that's an issue for the Eagles, but not sure it bothers other sides nearly as much, if at all.
Samantha
Roar Rookie
Perhaps ... against some teams, maybe. Not all teams fear the 'G though.
harry houdini
Roar Rookie
I would like to see a North- Footscray GF
Paul D
Roar Guru
Totally agree Ryan, Hawks make the 8 and they are right in to win it. Coaches and players will say all the cliches leading up to the game about in being just another game, but everyone knows the Hawks have won it the last 3 years, and that supreme confidence, combined with the trepidation in their opposition, will give them a definite edge. I'm hoping of course they don't win it this year, and I'm looking forward to seeing if one of the teams in the mix has got what it takes to knock the Hawks out. Will be one hell of a game if they do.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
Being a touch disingenuous you old rogue. Sydney will be top 4. I reckon, in no particular order, it will be North Syd GWS Geel Hawthorn to bow out in the prelim
Paul D
Roar Guru
The point is Samantha, the longer they stay in, the more likely they are to have games at the G. That's their trump card come September.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
also in the olden but glorious days, North played 6 in a row 74-78, included the draw in 77.
DamianR
Guest
1. The final 8 will end up differently to as it stands post Rd 7. 2. If Hawks finish 5th - 8th they won't be installed as flag faves. Happy to have a slab with anyone who disagrees with 1 or 2 ? Even if Hawks started $1.50 warm faves (which they wouldn't) in all 4 matches, that is a $5.05 all up. You won't get better than $5 for flag on 1st & 2nd on ladder. Resubmit for September!
Brian
Guest
Hawks played 7 in a row 1983-1989. But yes Eagles early 90s (3 out of 4), North late 90s (3 out of 4), Lions early 00s (4 in a row) or Geelong late 00s (4 out of 5). None played 5 in a row.
Ken
Guest
Ah Mods, gotta love em
Samantha
Roar Rookie
The longer any team remains in the finals, the better their chances of winning the flag are. I guarantee you anyone not still playing all have the same chance - 0%.
Steven Paice
Roar Guru
Dean, fair comment on Port. Their best is very good and as you say their draw is ridiculously easy and may give them a chance to get on a roll.
Steven Paice
Roar Guru
I tell you what, if the Hawks get squeezed out of the top 4 it would be a massive challenge for them to win the flag. You wouldn't back against them to win an elimination final, but if that was to be interstate it would at least place some doubt in their ability to win
Samantha
Roar Rookie
Favouritism still doesn't put points on the scoreboard. It doesn't win any games. Ultimately, being favourite means absolutely jack squat.
Steven Paice
Roar Guru
I don't see that as a hot take at all Ryan. All things being equal, I don't see how anyone else can be tipped to defeat Hawthorn in a final at the MCG so the longer the finals go, the more likely they are to win if they are still playing.
Steven Paice
Roar Guru
I don't think you will be far from the mark Michael, the Victorian footy public would crave this 'Final Four' given its been 5 years since an all Victorian Grand Final, let alone the last four teams standing all being from that state.
Ryan Buckland
Expert
I reckon Jay summed it up perfectly yesterday: if Hawthorn make the eight, they are the Premiership favourite. Everyone else is playing for second until they can beat them in a final. That sounds like a massively hot take, and it is, but that's where we're at with the Hawks.
Michael Huston
Guest
I look at it like this: Hawthorn & Sydney. We know what their best is. It's grand final-worthy. Question marks about whether they can produce their best enough to qualify for top four or top two, but with so many teams looking the goods, all you really have to go on is history and past performances, and these teams have that on their side. Then there's North-Geelong-Bulldogs trifecta. Each has improven and built on good seasons in 2015, and look the most likely to beat the old guard to the flag. But there's a sense each has had it a little easy so far, and haven't been challenged like a flag-contending team should be. So they have to prove themselves. IMO, a team with a point to prove about their legitimacy is even more dangerous than a team with proven legitimacy. Rounding it out are Adelaide, West Coast and GWS. They all play exciting footy, and each have a pretty good blend of experience and youth on their list. But they aren't elite. Looking at all three teams, there's clearly something missing that's stopping them from taking the next step to being able to be the best team in the competition when they show so much promise. Can't wait for the next dozen or so rounds to see if the script plays out like I've anticipated. I think the next month may go a long way to shaping the eight. My tip is a North-Geelong-Hawthorn-Bulldogs top four. North and Hawthorn grand final. Hawthorn win the flag.
The Original Buzz
Roar Rookie
My big call for the week - Hawthorn won't make the top 4. I think they will be squeezed out by GWS on percentage. I think Western Bulldogs will finish 6th, while Adelaide and West Coast will slog it out for the last 2 positions in the 8. I think we will see where Port are at this week against Carlton. I still don't think they are top 8 material. Just out of curiosity, when was the last time a team played in 5 grand finals in a row?