On upside alone, Ben Simmons is the best player in the upcoming NBA Draft. He’s probably also its best rebounder, undoubtedly its best passer, and one of its best athletes.
He isn’t, however, the best fit for any of the teams with the top three picks.
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With the draft order now decided, we know the Philadelphia 76ers will pick first, the LA Lakers second and the Boston Celtics third.
Philadelphia will have the chance to take Simmons, and there are obvious benefits to such a move. Not only is Simmons a serious talent, but he has family ties to current head coach Brett Brown, who coached his dad David at the Melbourne Tigers.
If they want to take the best available player, then Simmons is the pick. But if they want someone who fills a need on their roster, it’s a different story.
The 76ers already have plenty of talent in Simmons’ power forward position. They’ve used recent lottery picks on Nerlens Noel, Joel Embiid and Jahlil Okafor, and, while none are good enough to demand the organisation pass on Simmons, they indicate a smaller player – say, for example, Brandon Ingram – would be a better fit.
It’s much the same case in Lakerland. LA already have Julius Randle at the four spot and are in far greater need of a wing scorer like, oh, I dunno, Brandon Ingram.
Again, it’s a case of the best available player versus the best available fit.
Boston have a greater need at power forward than the 76ers and Lakers, but the Celtics also need to add a consistent three-point shooter to their roster. Forgive the broken record here, but Ingram is exactly that – he shot over 40 per cent from deep during his time at Duke.
Admittedly, Simmons is a better fit for Boston than LA or Philadelphia. But he won’t be going there. While Ingram fills a need for both sides with the top two picks, he can only be taken once. In a draft shallow on talent, there’s no way Simmons will slide any further than number two.
Here’s the thing: while the draft order is set, there’s still no knowing who’s going to go where. Trades are certain to occur; new general manager Bryan Colangelo knows the 76ers need experienced players, not more rookies. He’s not been shy of brave moves in the past – he drafted Amar’e Stoudemire straight out of high school in a risky but excellent pick for Phoenix – and if the right team comes calling for the top pick a deal will be done.
Similarly, the Lakers would be sorely tempted to trade Simmons, should he fall to them, for DeMarcus Cousins. While the Aussie will probably fit neatly into the offence of Luke Walton he won’t be a franchise player straight out of the draft.
Cousins, in spite of his well-documented attitude issues, is a superstar. The Lakers have a history of acquiring outstanding big men (see Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and Shaquille O’Neal), and with Kobe Bryant now retired, they are in need of another franchise player.
But if Philadelphia or Los Angeles could trade away Simmons, surely that means Boston could trade for him, right?
That’s true, but he won’t be their number one trade or free agency option. The Celtics are sure to make a play at Kevin Durant, who will out of contract at the end of this season. Should that fail, they have sufficient assets to attempt to trade for Paul George or Jimmy Butler.
Simmons is unproven and untested, a phenomenal prospect with an abundance of upside yet enough flaws in his game to indicate he won’t be an instant, sure-fire superstar.
He’ll be good. He’ll probably be an All-Star. But, at the moment, Simmons isn’t what the top three lottery teams need.
GregT
Guest
Fit? What about fitting the team around Simmons? Neither the Sixers nor laker the lakers have a real franchise centrepiece player. I'm pretty sure both would take a chance on Simmons eventually being that type of player and just move the pieces around him to fit. It's not like either of them are in a hurry to win.
astro
Guest
I'm sorry, but this is insanity...Its Simmons 1 and daylight second. Philly would be insane to take Ingram over Simmons... Ingram upside is as a shooter. You can find 100 guys who can shoot. How many can you find who are a solid 6ft10, with great ball-handling and passing, dribbling skills, good defensive abilities and smooth shooting stroke? But don't just take it from me. David Thorpe says it best: http://www.espn.com.au/nba/story/_/page/Coach15602825/ben-simmons-nba-ceiling
Squidward
Roar Rookie
Take Simmons and trade another young player that's available to be traded that's in the PF position for a quality guard.?
joe
Guest
If he lands in either Philly or LA he will be in a dysfunctional situation much like he was in college at LSU. The Sixers are not close to figuring out what they are doing,the only thing they have going for them is the East is overall weak so they can make some strides & become more competitive quicker. But Simmons seems soft to me.Philly is the WORST city in the US for angry fans.If he struggles there initially they will be all over him.Its a blue collar fan base,Simmons comes across as pampered & kind of soft.That may not sit well if he struggles in that town. Going to LA is better option but with Jim Buss in charge that franchise is also looking more & more dysfunctional every year. Now they have Luke Walton as head coach & are in the West so improving is no easy task.Young teams like Utah & Portland,Minnesota are all far superior to the Lakers.Add in established teams like GS,SA,OKC then its an uphill battle to be even playoff bound with the roster the Lakers currently have.
Swampy
Guest
Portland selected Sam Bowie in 1984 because he fitted their team better. Swampy Out.
Daniel Jeffrey
Editor
LA probably have the least enviable position in the Draft; they're going to get one of the best two players in a shallow talent pool, but they don't have to make the difficult decision of who to pick. Whoever the 76ers pass on, the Lakers have the easy choice of taking the other.
Daniel Jeffrey
Editor
I disagree that LA is the place where Simmons can best develop. If he goes there, there's going to be all manner of hype around his arrival. One of the franchise's greatest players (Magic Johnson) has said he's the best player to come into the league since LeBron (which, considering the rookie seasons from guys like Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving, Blake Griffin and Karl-Anthony Towns, is a bit unfair) and Kobe Bryant has just retired. Lakers fans will say he's the guy to drag the side out of the doldrums. That's pressure Simmons could no doubt live without. I'd much rather he go to Boston, a side which was successful this year, who have a good, proven young coach in Brad Stevens, and a team where the weight of the world won't be on Simmons.
Daniel Jeffrey
Editor
"Simmons has the higher ceiling, Ingram has the higher floor." This sums it up pretty nicely. I will say the 76ers wouldn't necessarily be undoing their previous work in the Draft by trading away those picks. If Colangelo can make a couple of trades, it could actually work out quite well for the team.
Daniel Jeffrey
Editor
Couple of things. Yes, I agree Simmons could work in LA, particularly if Luke Walton brings in a style of offence similar to what's happening in Golden State. And while he'll probably end up playing a lot of time at small forward, he can't yet with his shocking shooting. You point to LeBron's poor record from deep, but LeBron is a phenomenal player - he has just about every other skill in the book to compensate for it. Simmons may end up having a similar skillset to LeBron, but right now he doesn't. It's unfair to say that, because surrounding LeBron with shooters has worked it will automatically work with Simmons at LA or Philly. You're comparing the best player of his generation, with a roster filled with two other All-Stars, to a guy who's played one year of college who'll probably be on a team that was terrible last year. That said, I do agree with you that Simmons should be taken at number one. But that doesn't mean he'll be a snug fit for Philly.
Riddos
Guest
Will be interesting to see how it all plays out. Simmons has the higher ceiling, Ingram has the higher floor. Would be classic to see Philly undo 3 years of lottery picks to wedge Simmons into their team with one of their other bigs and some traded-in shooters. Feels like they've stocked up on players the league now values a lot less then when they picked them with the move to more athletic shooting types.
come on you spurs
Guest
bad school with bad coaching. not sure why he didn't go to kentucky, duke or another big school
no one in particular
Roar Guru
He was playing SEC ball, apart from kentucky the rest of the teams are painfully average.
Brian
Guest
From an Australian Basketball perspective you would hope he ends up at the Lakers. Massive team where he can best develop and probably the US city most familiar to Australians. They are also too far behind the pack to expect any success next year.
Keagan Ryan
Roar Guru
The connection with Brett Brown is a major consideration. Brown has already publicly praised Simmons' ability, I think it's a formality he will go no.1. Which as a LA fan I'm pretty happy about. Simmons could well be the next megastar but there are enough question marks there to be worried. Hopefully we (LA) don't get the chance to pick him
Marshall
Guest
From his stats he was still pretty dominant, just the team and coach were so so abjectly horrible that it probably dragged him down even further. Think of this, you don't get an assist if the guy misses a shot! And you can't get rebounds if picking the ball out of the basket every time.
Marshall
Guest
A friend described Ingram to me as "A skinnier Kevin Durant, I never thought I would actually say that"
Marshall
Guest
If there is one thing I have learnt in life it's that 'pundits' on ESPN are always correct and reliable 100% of the time.
no one in particular
Roar Guru
He's lazy, doesn't work hard enough and bludges on defence. Talent got him to where he is, seems unwilling to work to go further A player of his quality should have taken control of games and dominated at the college level.
Swampy
Guest
Only a fool would not take Simmons No.1 Cast aside what happened at LSU. Simmons averaged 20ppg, 11 rpg and 5 apg anyway on a crap team whilst playing out of position with a coach who couldn't figure out how to utilise a one in a generation player - these are unbelievable numbers for a freshman and miles ahead of Ingram's impact. Simmons has an NBA ready body and based on the comments of those who played against him is also incredibly strong (no surprise considering his genetics). Now for the article's point itself. Simmons doesn't fit any of the top 3 teams. BS. Simmons fits perfectly at the Lakers. He is not a Power Forward for a start. He's a Point Forward. He played high school ball with D'Angelo Russell - they are friends. Simmons would sit in perfectly at small forward for the Lakers playing exactly the role Lebron does. So what if he can't shoot threes (which we're not actually sure he can't - he just wouldn't take any) - Lebron is currently a 30% shooter from deep. Cleveland surrounded him with guys that can shoot threes which is working pretty good I say. Which brings us to Philly - they have a logjam of pieces that cram into two spots. Pick Simmons, who is better than all their recent lottery picks and trade for shooters. Lots of shooters. Surround Simmons and one of Noel, Embiid or Okafor with shooters. Just like the Cavs. Boston - please - Boston would have fallen over themselves for Simmons. They lack a star - have a pile of guys who shoot threes and a gunner at point guard who is not really a distributor. Simmons would fit like a glove. Imagine Evan Turner - just much bigger & faster and much, much better altogether. All those crap body contact fouls Simmons got whistled for in College - you don't get whistled for those in the NBA. He will be a better defender in the NBA than he showed in college. Now I'm not going to say that Ingram is over rated but he's rail thin and that usually means you need 2-3 seasons of the body maturing to be effective in the NBA. I'd pin Ingram more as a Bradley Beal type player.
Daniel Jeffrey
Editor
The knocks on Simmons, particularly his lack of willingness to take over games, are very valid. But keep in mind that, while the rest of the SEC was very weak, so was LSU. Outside of Simmons they had no quality players, and the coaching left plenty to be desired. Regardless of where Simmons lands, he will undeniably have better players and coaches around him. I'll leave judgement on how dominant Simmons will be until I've seen him play in the NBA, although I think the signs are pretty promising.