Stats, history and common sense are all against me on this one, so I’m going to channel my inner Dennis Denuto. NSW are going to win Origin 1 tonight because… it’s just the vibe of the thing.
Can’t you just feel it in the air? Some intangible, undefinable reason as to why Queensland’s ten years of dominance are set to finally have a line drawn underneath them?
As to a precendent for my vibe? Ummm… well, I totally had a vibe before Andrew Johns stepped up and demolished Queensland in that game back in 2005.
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But then I’ve also had a vibe going into each series since, for a record of 1-9.
So, yeah, my track record on this stuff isn’t great. Alright, let’s talk specifics.
First up is the Kevin Walters factor.
Yesterday I addressed ‘Ivan Henjack syndrome’ – how the coach replacing a legend inevitably tanks.
And when it comes to State of Origin, no one else comes close to Mal Meninga.
It really doesn’t matter that he may or may not have been the actual coach, fact is with Big Mal at the helm Queensland created an era of dominance perhaps only comparable to St George’s run in the 1950s and ’60s. His absence will be keenly felt.
In fact, his absence has already been keenly felt.
At a start-of-season camp, Valentine Holmes broke curfew, and ended up arrested and copping a $1412 fine for obstructing police and public nuisance. He and Cameron Muster, who also slipped out for the evening, were subsequently barred from Origin for 12 months.
Days later, it came out that six other young Queenslanders had also decided Kevvie was probably only kidding when he set a bedtime, and Anthony Milford, Ben Hunt, Dylan Napa, Jarrod Wallace, Edrick Lee and Chris Grevsmuhl also were told to cool their heels for 2016.
Never mind how helpful the destructive Napa would be against a firebrand Blues pack, or how any of Holmes, Milford or Hunt could have taken the utility bench spot, what does it say about the famed Queensland culture that eight young players ultimately valued coldies at the Story Bridge Hotel over a Maroon jersey?
Who knows whether any of this happened under Meninga’s watch? Me, and no, it would not have.
Mal commands way too much respect to be so openly and flagrantly disobeyed. Walters just doesn’t carry the same gravitas – how could he? – and the Blues know it.
The fear and respect the Maroons were afforded over the years by NSW came about in no small way because Queensland had the belief they were the best instilled in them by one of the greatest players of all time.
Mal was the mental edge. And now he’s gone.
Of course, you don’t really need a mental edge if you’re coming up against a team that don’t believe they’re going to win in the first place. But NSW are brimming with confidence.
Game 3 of last year was an embarrassment, Queensland handing NSW a 52-6 spanking, which was the biggest winning margin in Origin history. It was an emphatic way of reclaiming the shield the Maroons had lost the previous year.
Eight NSW players who copped that hiding – Josh Morris, Michael Jennings, Aaron Woods, James Tamou, Paul Gallen, Boyd Cordner, David Klemmer and Josh Jackson – will front up again tonight.
But rather than be scared, those are the kind of blokes who will be fuelled by that night last July. Sadly, the majority of those blokes are no strangers to being beaten by Queensland, and know how to dust themselves off after a loss, while newer faces like Klemmer and Jackson will simply be keen for revenge.
The guys who really could have suffered after that loss are those in the crucial spine positions, where there has been a complete overhaul. Josh Dugan’s gone, with Matt Moylan in at fullback; halves Mitchell Pearce and Trent Hodkinson are replaced with James Maloney and Adam Reynolds; and while Robbie Farah was named to play Game 3 of 2015, he was ruled out injured in favour of Mick Ennis.
And for the first time in years, that’s a spine that people have some legitimate faith in, particularly in the halves.
Maloney has led Cronulla’s charge to the top of the ladder, and he was solid when he played for NSW in the 2013 series. Reynolds is the real gem selection though.
Long considered to have been overlooked, there’s a distinct chance the selectors have actually played this one perfectly, waiting for his game and body to mature enough that he’s not being thrown to the wolves like so many Blues halfbacks in the past ten years. The Souths half will be a gun, and with the weather likely to be awful, his kicking game could well be what decides the match.
As I said at the top, when the Maroons’ recent record looks the way it does, there’s really no good way to argue that the Blues will win.
But NSW are going to claim Game 1.
It’s just the vibe.
Jara W
Guest
Never said he couldn't tackle. Said his defensive workload would subdue his running game. Not a bad prediction in the end.
3 Hats
Guest
AGAIN, Jara, you have no idea, you obviously only watch footy when the Broncos are playing. Reynolds has made plenty of tackling against the big blokes, his effective rate is 98%. Maybe you are getting confused with Maloney, he is the one with the most missed tackles in the comp. BY the way, Thurston misses way more tackles than Reyno. Thurston has missed 41 tackles this season Reynolds ONLY 9. Maloney 48 Cronk 26
3 Hats
Guest
Reynolds is from the Waterloo/Redfern area where 10-year old kids play tackle football in the back lane on the bitumen, barefooted with a Half Brick. Getting roughed up? You know nothing about South Sydney Kids.
Griffo
Guest
Sorry mate. Mabo was a Queenslander.
V.O.R.
Guest
Dean of Surry Hills, you are wrong. The official NRL stats that you originally referenced yourself calculate statistics on minutes played and not on games played. This of course makes sense and is the more statistically sound approach. Regardless, good luck tonight.
Dean - Surry Hills
Guest
Reynolds effects 25 tackles per game (17 games played) Cronk effects 19 tackles per game (21 games played) Thurston effects 18 tackles per game (21 games played) Reynolds misses 3.06 tackles per game Thurston misses 3.14 tackles per game Therefore Reynolds makes 7 more effective tackles per game than Thurston, and misses fewer as well.
Dean - Surry Hills
Guest
Lawrence Hammill QC (Queensland Council) is currently on annual leave and unable to assist the Maroons with a win away from home. The Castle shall be defended, and NSW will persist. Suffer in your jocks.
Birdy
Guest
Train, your naievity doesn't war rent a reply
V.O.R.
Guest
Dean of Surry Hills, I utilise the same official NRL stats...Thurston played 1990 minutes during the 2015 season, Reynolds played only 1375 minutes for his 52 missed tackles. So per game Reynolds most definitely missed more tackles than Thurston during the 2015 season. As for your claim that Thurston is a speed bump, Beau Scott looked like a crash test dummy when Thurston stopped him in his tracks last year on the QLD tryline.
Eden
Guest
Reynolds kicking will pay off if NSW adopts QLDs attacking strategy - i.e. Repeat sets. Pearce and co have been terrible at getting repeat sets in past years both due to poor ability and poor strategy - too many bombs which are increasingly ineffective in the new era of shepherding catchers. QLD on the other hand regularly go through periods of putting NSW through 3,4,5 defensive sets in a row. It destroys the energy levels and effectively makes the NSW attack impotent. Reynolds is as good at forcing drop outs as any half and he needs to exploit that.
Red Dog
Guest
5 or 6 years perhaps but not 10 .
Red Dog
Guest
I just don't think this team knows how to win ..., JT , Cronk , Smith , Inglis and the others they have infected just seem to be able to keep cool heads and do what needs to be done . Reynolds is the key but he needs the ball in his hands to make s difference .
Dean - Surry Hills
Guest
V.O.R. - Don't let the facts get in the way of a good story. Official 2015 NRL stats Adam Reynolds 419 & 52 (Tackles Made & Missed Tackles) Cooper Cronk 391 & 40 Jonathon Thurston 373 & 66 Thurston is a speed bump that NSW should relentlessly target
Epiquin
Roar Guru
Why does Johns have to be "the most capped player" to be the best. That just doesn't even make sense. By that logic, Andrew Ettingshausen is The Blues' greatest ever player.
V.O.R.
Guest
Spot on. I can see Smith kicking to the corners early in the count to isolate Moylan and jamming NSW's big men. A bunch of debut players in combination with the conditions could make for an engaging game tonight with a good amount of strategy on display.
Albo
Guest
He's been running with the team for ten years ! A couple of days R&R won't have done him any harm !
Train Without A Terminus
Guest
So he didn't run with the team for 3 days just to keep up the charade? Wow, that's confidence for you...
steveng
Roar Rookie
To me and to be consistent with the 36 year old script, NSW by 8 points in the first game, then the other 2 to Qld, as always. Got to keep the SOO interest there because if NSW would have won as many as Qld have the SOO interest would be 'long gone' today and neither the NSW or Qld fans would have any interest, as many have done so already, only the Christmas Eve 'New York cop from 'die hard' still keep going and think that this NSW v QLD means anything or is worth fighting for! lol
isaac
Guest
steven . I never seen Johns become the most capped player in rep footy. let knights alone and see what he did with NSW and Kangroos. not even close to lockyer or smith. thurstan also suppress all records for greatest halfback. the great person ever played for nsw is fitler . QLD is going ten in out of nine and will continue to win. by the way I life in Thursday island
isaac
Guest
Lachy P. can you prove how many series did Johns win? we all know that johns used drug his entire career . how does that make him star? he is not even the most capped caption of Australia or NSW.