Essendon, Carlton, Collingwood, Brisbane Lions, Port Adelaide, Richmond, Gold Coast, West Coast, Fremantle, North Melbourne. That’s the run home for the Greater Western Sydney Giants.
It’s also the final reason you should need to lock them in for a top four spot and throw away the key.
(The Eagles game, crucially, is in Sydney. That leaves the Power and Kangas games on the road as the main stumble possibilities, but on current form, GWS win those too.)
For good reason, there’s been a buzz around the Giants this season. Also for good reason, that buzz seems to have been elevated since the win over the Swans on Sunday.
Is it over the top? Let’s just say I have no problem with their inclusion in the premiership discussion.
They’ve delivered good results against good teams and you can see the strides made by a host of players taking their games to another level.
They’ve arrived, alright.
No change // Ladder: 7th (8W, 4L)
The very idea that the Crows could be playing the competition’s best footy right now wasn’t well received last week, but it should be easier to digest now. Their last month has included the biggest win over Gold Coast at Metricon this season, a 22-point win over fellow in-form side GWS, an 88-point win over the not-that-horrible St Kilda and a 29-point win over the generally-good-at-home Eagles. Not too shabby.
No change // Ladder: 6th (8W, 4L)
You could highlight a bunch of players here. Phil Davis kept Buddy Franklin to just his third game with less than three goals this season. A further 10 players had 20-plus touches. Toby Greene was one of them and he also had four goals. Just a nice, even spread. Even the GWS fans were bringing plenty.
+2 // Ladder: 2nd (8W, 3L)
Patrick Dangerfield had a minimum of 10 touches each quarter on his way to 48 disposals against North Melbourne. He gained more than 1000 metres, too. Freak. Joel Selwood, who had 19 disposals each half, shouldn’t be forgotten either. As for the Cats’ goal kicking, well, let’s just say that’s another thing that shouldn’t be left out of the discussion.
-1 // Ladder: 4th (9W, 3L)
Trailed at the final break but came back for a gritty three-point interstate win against Port Adelaide. Tom Liberatore had 13 clearances, five of which came in the fourth quarter. Should be a good contest this weekend with the Dogs facing the Cats at Etihad Stadium.
+1 // Ladder: 8th (7W, 5L)
The rankings continue to be friendly here — the +1 was a result of the Swans slipping by more — but there was definitely more cause for concern for the Eagles this week. In the final 46 minutes against Adelaide, the Eagles scored just two behinds while their opponents ran away with it kicking 8.9. Now Nic Naitanui is out for two months? Ouch.
+2 // Ladder: 5th (9W, 3L)
You could obviously argue the case for a +3 here given who’s above the Hawks, but it’s hard to read too much into a thumping win over Essendon, even if it was the Bombers’ biggest defeat so far. We may well find out whether Hawthorn is indeed starting to flick the switch Friday night against North Melbourne.
-3 // Ladder: 3rd (9W, 3L)
Outplayed by their crosstown rivals and Kurt Tippett picked up a six-week injury. You can put this down to a weekend to forget for the Swans. Overall, worth noting Sydney do have the best time in front percentage in the comp and the second best percentage.
+1 // Ladder: 9th (6W, 6L)
That’s the third loss by single digits in five weeks. Port would be riding a seven-game win streak right now had those fixtures gone the other way. Will those three losses go on to define their season? Time will tell, but they must surely hurt right now.
-2 // Ladder: 1st (10W, 2L)
The Roos actually did quite well considering the pressure of multiple injuries. Despite the Dangerfield-Selwood masterclass, they were up by 16 at half time. While another fall in the rankings may seem harsh in that context, we have now seen two losses by more than four goals in three weeks. A good showing in the next fortnight (against Hawthorn and Adelaide) would certainly turn the outlook around.
+1 // Ladder: 10th (6W, 6L)
A big Queen’s Birthday win over Collingwood must surely feel good for Dees supporters. We talk about Max Gawn a lot, but even Nathan Buckley admitted to planning for him at the selection table and having those plans turned on their head. Dominant in the ruck, three goals and 27 touches. Not bad.
+1 // Ladder: 12th (5W, 7L)
Some are scratching their heads about how to read the Saints, but it’s pretty simple. They’re 5-0 against teams below ninth. They’re 0-7 against those ninth and up. They ain’t yet ready to make the jump – but they are more likely than not to put away a side like Carlton.
+2 // Ladder: 16th (2W, 10L)
Hot tip: If you’re at the bottom end of these rankings, winning by 83 will help you move up. Well, that and the fact Freo actually have a bit of a gap between them and the bottom sides, despite what the ladder has been saying.
-3 // Ladder: 11th (6W, 6L)
Air had to be let out of the bubble eventually, didn’t it? The Blues will take lots of confidence from the first half of the season and the loss to St Kilda shouldn’t detract from that.
+1 // Ladder: 13th (5W, 7L)
Gold Coast were in the game relatively late, but the Tigers won it when it was there to be won. This week it’s time for a much-needed bye. Let’s just say it’s hard to see a second half to the year as miraculous as the last couple of years.
-2 // Ladder: 14th (4W, 8L)
The Pies have had their moments when it has clicked, but their form has tended to revert back to what we’ve seen in the last fortnight. The tall stocks were again an issue against Melbourne.
No change // Ladder: 15th (3W, 9L)
Speaking of much-needed byes, a week of rest awaits the Suns. There were some handy ins before the Richmond game, but supporters will be hoping for more on the other side of the break.
No change // Ladder: 17th (1W, 11L)
Losing by such a margin to Fremantle at home has rightly raised eyebrows. Six rounds have been played since the Lions last got within five goals of another AFL team.
No change // Ladder: 18th (1W, 11L)
Just checked — there are no more Friday night games for the Bombers this season. (Though there is a Thursday night game coming up in three weeks. Clear your social calendars accordingly.)
Macca
Guest
"And the strength of opposition part of it also gets updated. So if a team beats Adelaide by 10 but the Crows go on to win their next five, you can expect a bump to come from that." SO The blues beat Port Adelaide who then go on to narrowly lose to the Eagles, belt Melbourne & Collingwood and narrowly lose to the bulldogs does that get a bump? Or the blues beat Geelong who then go on to Account for GWS and North does that get a bump?
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
Andrew, thanks for reading. There isn't a "starting point" as such, in that where a side was ranked in round 1 has nothing to do with where they are ranked now. Each week teams are assessed on their recent games up to that week. So think of it like one game's worth of data is added, while another way back game is taken out. And the strength of opposition part of it also gets updated. So if a team beats Adelaide by 10 but the Crows go on to win their next five, you can expect a bump to come from that. As for the round 1 article, the way we do early season rankings will be subject to review going forward. It's tricky because there's less data to draw from. The feedback on that article suggested there was some work to do so I'll take that on board.
ken
Guest
They are above the Eagles, look again, after you've finished your Kool aid...
chris
Guest
News of the swans demise is premature, they were cooked.. A comment that got a big "wtf" response in another thread... But if you saw the bog they played in at metricon, and if you had every played the game, you would know they were tired from playing on a very wet track, for a team that still plays a lockdown slingshot style, that's a big problem... They will bounce back with avengeance and are still my favourites for the flag
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
Something has clearly been amiss in the rankings which has seen North constantly drop back. North dropped 2 positions after beating Melbourne in Round 3. 2 weeks later after beating Port and St Kilda, Michael is excusing GWS's loss to Melbourne in Round 1, seeing them 2 spots above North.
BigAl
Guest
@andyl12 Totally agree re Eagles. I had them down as total PTSD sufferers for this season at the begining of the year. The way they lost that last home game against the Crows may turn out to be a defining moment for their season, and the way they perform against Brisbane next week will be extremely interesting to put it mildly.
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
Just games that have already happened.
Rocko
Roar Guru
Thanks - it is an interesting concept - do you factor in "games to come" on rankings? ie - next 4?
andrew
Guest
michael, is it possible your starting point for north was incorrect ? i can understand your sliding up and down in recent weeks, but if they were placed in the wrong spot to start with its all out of kilter. you had them 7th after round 1, after their win over the crows. are you able to now retrospectively upgrade the merit of this win. or is norths current position on this ranking somewhat prejudiced because and earlier win was under-valued at the time (for example, west coast beating bris at home, dogs beating freo at home, swans over collingwood) as compared to how you might value it now. the one thing i dont understand about your power rankings is how you can retrospectively look back at the value of any given, rather you just judge it in the moment (ie, beating freo), but this judgement is then entrenched in the position that flows through to subsequent variations, and i agree like %, these variations get less as the season wares on. i did go back to your round 1 article, and it did say, it was a bit of fun. and you have certainly poked a bit of fun at north in these rankings, generated hits and discussion. and certainly made me have a laugh about port doing better than north at present given port lost at home to a side that north managed to beat.
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
I don't know about that. Some teams will just do better against particular teams (and at particular venues) over extended periods. Often the key personnel and playing styles generally don't change that much. But as far as statistics go you would possibly give greater weighting to historical performance in tennis and less in a team sport like footy. You'd want to do a bit of preliminary statistical analysis first to give you a sense of how to do the weightings and then follow-up/adjust as you compared the stat results to real life results.
Cat
Roar Guru
Sure DC, that may work for singles competition but it doesn't hold in a team sport where teams are never the same from one year to the next. Some teams change radically, for example any form guide for Geelong last year is useless to apply to this years side, ditto freo.
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
There's all sorts of historical information that could be useful in presenting an accurate picture of current performance. So for example it'd be likely, from Nadal's past history on clay, that if he got beaten by Murray at the French Open that Nadal's performance was a fair way off his usual level, while alternatively Murray's performance was likely a few levels above his usual standard.
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
Thanks for reading, Martin. The rankings look at where a team is at right now, so the overall form of North matters less than how they've performed in recent weeks. Some of the calls may look odd, but I'll note there were plenty of comments last week against certain rankings that were well and truly refuted during the weekend's results. To illustrate... Apparently Adelaide were too high last week, they ended up beating West Coast at Subiaco (no easy feat). Apparently Sydney should've been on top last week, they ended up well beaten by a side (GWS) I had two spots higher. Apparently Fremantle were way too high last week, there was 83 points separating them and Brisbane at the Gabba on Saturday. Apparently North Melbourne should've been higher last week, they lost to a side two spots above them by five goals. So, like I said, it's about assessing where a team is really at, without going down the easy road of looking at the number of wins a team has. The ladder already takes care of that. On Adelaide-versus-GWS for top spot, that's absolutely a fair debate. I just think the Crows have had slightly more meaningful recent form, but I'll admit there's not a lot in it. Couldn't go wrong with either at the moment.
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
Thanks mattyb. It's been very interesting to go through the names in the comments last week and see who hasn't returned this week, that's for sure. The power rankings evolve based on recent form, so there will inevitably be some form of difference at the end of the year, but absolutely I think sides that have consistently been near the top are likely to be in the top four. GWS, as highlighted in the intro, in particular.
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
richo, thanks for reading up to this point. I appreciate it.
mattyb
Guest
After the way last weeks ladder played out its hard to argue with this weeks. As the season goes behond half way some teams really start to drop off while other play much better so it will be interesting to see how your final predictions play out,I think by seasons end your power rankings could be very close to the actual ladder. I certainly think there is a wide gap in the teams 1-12 from those 13-18 in your power rankings so I'd consider that part extremely accurate.
Davico55
Guest
So West Coast playing at Home against an interstate team whilst Swans playing away in a Derby did not come into calculations???
Macca
Guest
Richo - I would argue it isn't thinking about it enough that is the issue. Michael has made a formula and is then plugging information into the formula each week to produce a result - the issue seems to me to be that when the formula produces results that simply aren't plausible there is no thought to recalibrate the formula - the formula is presumed to be correct without any thought.
richo
Guest
Im over this pseudo-intellectual nonsense, wont even bother reading in future. dropping north below port is just thinking about it waaaaay too much
Macca
Guest
Dalgety - information from 12 months ago no matter how it is used has no place in a power rankings formula.