History is totally against NSW winning Origin in Brisbane

If New South Wales are to win this year’s State of Origin series they are going to have to make history.

To date there have been 33 three-game series played*. Two series have been drawn – 1999 and 2002 – with the holder (Queensland in both cases) being awarded the title.

To date, and including the two stand-alone matches in 1980 and 1981, Queensland have won 58 games to New South Wales’ 44.

There have been 31 series in which either Queensland or New South Wales have triumphed. Queensland have won 19 to New South Wales 12.

Of those 31 series in only seven (22%) has a side come back to win the series after losing Game 1.

1982
The very first actual series. Queensland lost the first game 16-20 to New South Wales at Lang Park. They won the second match – also at Lang Park – 11-7 and then went to the SCG and won 10-5.

1987
Queensland lost the first match of the series at Lang Park 16-20. They then won the last Origin match ever played at the SCG 12-6, before heading back to Lang Park where they won 10-8.

1994
Queensland beat New South Wales on the bell with Mark Coyne’s miracle try in Origin 1 at the SFS. New South Wales then won the first ever Origin match at the MCG 14-0, before claiming their third consecutive series by beating Queensland at Lang Park 27-12.

2005
Queensland beat New South Wales 24-20 at Suncorp Stadium in Origin 1. New South Wales then claimed Origin 2 at the Olympic Stadium 32-22 before going back up to Suncorp and emphatically walloping Queensland 32-10.

2006
New South Wales looked well on their way to winning their fourth straight series when Brett Finch kicked a late field goal to sink Queensland 17-16 in Game 1. However, Queensland absolutely smacked New South Wales 30-6 in Origin 2 at Suncorp Stadium.

The decider was played at the Docklands Stadium in Melbourne – the only decider to ever have been played outside of the home capitals. It was also the first appearance of Paul Gallen in sky blue. Trailing 14-4 with ten minutes to go Queensland scored two converted tries to take the match and the series.

2008
Things looked bright for the Craig Bellamy led Blues when they claimed Game 1 of Origin 2008 18-10. That optimism was short-lived as Queensland destroyed the Blues 30-0 at Suncorp in Game 2. While Game 3 was far more of a contest, Queensland ran out 16-10 winners at the Olympic Stadium in what was Danny Buderus’ farewell Origin match.

2013
New South Wales won the first game 14-6, before getting smacked 26-6 in Game 2 at Suncorp. Queensland then beat New South Wales by two points, 12-10, in Origin 3 at the Olympic Stadium to seal their eighth straight series win.

New South Wales have never gone a game down, travelled to Brisbane and won, and then gone on to claim the series.

There have been 102 State of Origin matches played so far (not counting the exhibition match in Long Beach California in 1987). As mentioned, Queensland have won 58 games and NSW 44.

Seven of the games have been played in Melbourne. Only 43 games have been played in Sydney, as the first six series all played two games at Lang Park. Fifty-two matches have been played in Brisbane.

To date, New South Wales have only won 17 (32%) of the games played in Brisbane. Eight of those victories were in Game 1, seven of those victories were in Game 3, but only two (12%) were in Game 2.

There have been 11 Game 2s played in Brisbane and those two wins only constitute an 18 per cent success rate for New South Wales. They took place in 1998 and 2000. New South Wales lost the 1998 series – losing both their home games – and won the 2000 series 3-0.

Further, since the Queensland decade of dominance began in 2006 there have been 12 matches at Suncorp Stadium. New South Wales have only won two of those (16.6%): the dead rubber in 2009 and Game 1 in 2014, which was the only series that New South Wales have won in the last decade. A series win that many attribute to the x-factor that was Jarryd Hayne.

Laurie Daley and his team are going to have to overcome those overwhelming statistics to win next Wednesday, let alone win the series.

There has been widespread dismay that Daley and Bob Fulton have gone with the same side that lost Origin 1. The only change has been to replace the injured Boyd Cordner.

There are major question marks over the suitability of the likes of Josh Morris, Adam Reynolds, Blake Ferguson and especially Dylan Walker to match it with the Queensland juggernaut, take control of the game and score the necessary points.

Names like Joey Leilua and James Tedesco have been put forward as better options on the basis of their current form, which is best shown by their statistics.

So what would the New South Wales team look like if it was selected on this year’s statistical form?

Let’s have a look…

Prop Forwards
Aaron Woods: 163 metres, 31 tackles and less than one missed tackle a match.

Andrew Fifita: 154 metres, three tackle breaks, 31 tackles and less than one missed tackle a match.

Hooker
Michael Ennis: 36 tackles, 50 metres, six try assists.

Second row
David Klemmer: 193 metres, 26 tackles and less than one missed tackle a match.

Paul Gallen: 155 metres, 34 tackles, three line-break assists, two try assists, one missed tackle a match.

Lock
Josh Jackson: 36 tackles, six line-break assists, two try assists, 89 metres.

Half-back
Luke Brooks: nine line-break assists, nine try assists, three tries.

Five-eighth
Josh Reynolds: four line-break asists, seven try assists, six line breaks, four tries, two tackle busts a game.

Centres
Joey Leilua: 123 metres, four tries, ten line-break assists, five try assists, 5.7 tackle breaks a game.

Jack Bird: 101 metres, 3.5 tackle breaks, three line-break assists, two try assists, two tries.

Wingers
Tom Trbojevic: 154 metres, three line-break assists, five try assists, three tries, five line breaks, 3.5 tackle breaks a game.

Josh Mansour: 146 metres, six tries, eight line breaks, 3.5 tackle breaks a game.

Fullback
James Tedesco: 127 metres, eight line-break assists, seven try asists, nine tries, eight line breaks, six tackle breaks a game.

Interchange
James Tamou: 135 metres, 25 tackles, less than one missed tackle a match.

Greg Bird: 120 metres, 25 tackles, four line-break assists, three try assists.

Trent Merrin: 130 metres, 33 tackles, two tackle breaks a match.

Lachlan Coote: 70 metres, ten line-break assists, ten try assists, three tries, two tackle breaks a game.

What is interesting about this is that eight of the players Daley has selected are more than justified by the statistics.

However, with the exception of Josh Mansour, the backline is almost entirely different to what has been selected.

Now, before you scream about Luke Brooks being too young, being a turnstile in defence and perhaps not having the best kicking game of the eligible halfbacks, I want you to reflect that a 22-year-old boy who debuted for Queensland in 2005 could have been described in almost identical terms.

Imagine if they hadn’t picked Johnathan Thurston…

And before you say that the backline is too young and inexperienced, bare this in mind: Cameron Smith debuted in 2003 at the age of 19; in 2004 Billy Slater and Corey Parker at the ages of 20 and 22 respectively; in 2005 Thurston debuted at the age of 22; and in 2006 Greg Inglis (19), Nate Myles (20), Matt Scott (20) and Sam Thaiday (21) had their first games. A dynasty was built on those inexperienced kids.

Who else wishes that Lozza would take a punt on some of the very talented New South Welsh kids? And then just maybe the Blues will be able to make some history.

*no data from 1997 included due to the split competition.